"Will Society Collapse This Century?" Topic

"A 1972 MIT study predicted that rapid economic growth would lead to societal collapse in the mid 21st century. A new paper shows we're unfortunately right on schedule.

A remarkable new study by a director at one of the largest accounting firms in the world has found that a famous, decades-old warning from MIT about the risk of industrial civilization collapsing appears to be accurate based on new empirical data.

As the world looks forward to a rebound in economic growth following the devastation wrought by the pandemic, the research raises urgent questions about the risks of attempting to simply return to the pre-pandemic ‘normal.'…"
Main page
link

Armand

I ain't buy'n it …

The entire basis of the Club of Rome predictions was society running out of resources. Right now, things are exactly the opposite – environmentalists are actively trying to disallow the use of abundant resources; instead of the predicted overpopulation, aging, and in the future, declining population can cause economic downturns.
Whatever problems we are having, they are precisely not the problems the Club of Rome were predicting.

Let's see, ideologically driven riots (all across the globe), massive distrust of almost anyone in power, blind faith in 'leaders' that espouse a person's own beliefs, the reduction of philosophical arguments to personal attacks, the inability to discuss serious issues with open minds, and the list goes on…
Yeah, probably.

Society collapsed in 1965.

1789, surely?

In the early 70's they were also predicting we'd be going into a new ice age. Ask them to refund whatever money they received for their 'study'…

Society has always been on the brink of collapse. A golden age for America ended with the JFK assassination and our debacle in Vietnam. And yet during that same period we put a man on the Moon. Human history seems to be 5 steps forward, 4 steps back. We seem to trudge along.

Let's see, ideologically driven riots (all across the globe), massive distrust of almost anyone in power, blind faith in 'leaders' that espouse a person's own beliefs, the reduction of philosophical arguments to personal attacks, the inability to discuss serious issues with open minds, and the list goes on…
Yeah, probably.

In other words, like the world has always been. It's telling that when you say the above, opposing political factions will all agree, just attributing it to the other side.

@FierceKitty
It's definitely the right day to talk about that year.

Marx didn't predict the consumer-driven capitalist society,* but he did predict that capitalism would maximize the forces of production all over the world before its internal contradictions caused its collapse.

With the abandonment of Leninism-Stalinism-Maoism during the latter part of the last century, all of the major powers are capitalist in their own ways, having private ownership of property, especially of the means of production, at the centers of their economies, and nearly all of the other nations of the world follow the same model according to their abilities.

So we are well along the path to maximizing the forces of production worldwide. Whether that will lead to capitalism's internal contradictions causing its collapse remains to be seen.

I, for one, am not holding my breath. It's worth noting that Marx himself did not put any time frame on the collapse of worldwide capitalism.

*********
*Thorstein Veblen, writing later than Marx, was more prescient. See his Theory of the Leisure Class (1899).

Considering Marx's own system that supposedly was going to succeed capitalism has already collapsed, I wouldn't put too much value in his predictions.

Marx never set forth or advocated a system. He famously denied being a Marxist. He wrote that industrialized Germany had the best chance at a revolution, not semi-feudal agrarian Russia.

I have the impression that he though Lenin and his ilk were opportunists seeking any ideology to get themselves into power. He would not have been wrong about that.

The centralized command economy, five-year-plans, government ownership of the means of production, etc., were all ideas of Lenin and Stalin, dressed up with Marx's words.

If you've read the Communist Manifesto, you would've noticed that the book definitely seems to be advocating for something… The book literally says "Communists wrote this book", and the authors are stated as Karl Marx and Fredrich Engels, so it's rather silly to say he was not a Marxist/Communist. He openly called for violent revolution and the abolition of private property, so it's hard to claim the later revolutionaries' attempts to realize those things don't trace back to him.
He did claim that Germany was on the verge of revolution, oops, another wrong prediction.
Considering how Marx died in 1883, and Lenin was born in 1870, I doubt he thought about Lenin at all.

Well once the aliens land🛸 … that will change everything !👽 They better hurry up with the way things are going … There may Not be anything like human kind left …

I vote for the aliens.. or a giant asteroid colliding with Earth. ;-)

I have a feeling ET is not going to have all problems solved either.

They'll probably just vaporize the place to make way for an intergalactic freeway system.

(smile)

Armand

@gregmita2: The Communist Manifesto is Marx's famous call to arms in the middle of the European revolutions of 1848. He spent the next 20 or so years thinking and writing. Capital is published about 1870, and Marx's view of the Internationale gets dimmer and dimmer over the course of his life.

All as I recall from studying history in college far too many years ago!

ET could easily show up like the aliens in District 9 -- desperate refugees just looking for a place to live that's not a decrepit spaceship.

Nothing is harder to predict than the future.

I think Marxism was just used as window dressing in grabbing power and wealth by some opportunists. The ideas are flawed and no threat in themselves, the economics never worked, but the leaders got rich. The word Marxism makes a handy boogeyman when other opportunists need window dressing to make themselves look like saviors.

The study is too pre-tech to mean much, I think. Yes, the population is starting to decrease and pollution is out of control, but alternative energy is on the way, agriculture, medical breakthroughs, science in general making strides. We responnd to problems and evolve our ideas in spite of ourselves. All the while we are worrying about societal collapse, people are coming up with all kinds of new ideas and moving ahead. My opinion.

Too late … I have been watching the news all morning … it is happening as we speak … er type … ! 😮😯😨😱🤯

ET could easily show up like the aliens in District 9 -- desperate refugees just looking for a place to live that's not a decrepit spaceship.

So would they be considered "illegal aliens" not undocumented refugees or whatever they are being called currently ? 🤔

To be totally inclusive … "Gray Lives Matter" … or Green or Orange, whatever ? 👽

All the while we are worrying about societal collapse, people

largely motivated by their concern for societal collapse (ask them)

are coming up with all kinds of new ideas and moving ahead.

Hasn't the world ended several times before, I mean they have models and everything?!?!?!
I think those guys reeeally need a new hobby….maybe we can recruit them?!?!

etotheipi – largely motivated by all kinds of things, I think, including making things better. And fame and fortune. Just like always.

Agree with all here, except for the aliens thing. I think they have been giving us a pass since the beginning of cable news.

Whether society collapses this century or not, we should all try to get in some post-apocalyptic gaming, whether miniatures or RPG.

Best way to end our last days… (smile)

Armand

But Tango… Wouldn't that be LARPing? :)

Agree with all here, except for the aliens thing. I think they have been giving us a pass since the beginning of cable news.

Yep … once they picked up on our daily news feeds. They knew we were on the way to "The End" …

Back to the TITLE of this…
Why does anything that Society will NOT collapse? All civilizations/societies collapse.
The "famous" Roman Empire itself changed completely every 200-250 years or so.

Specific societies do collapse on a regular basis. But not all at once, as I thought this study implied.. For example, as Rome was falling to barbarian invasions, Classic Mayan culture was rising, lasting several hundred years. Some societies will be collapsing in any given era.

This study seems to be more of a doomsday thing and I am not convinced, especially considering the strength of technology and the rapid expansion of knowledge on many fronts.

However, we do have a bad habit of repeating mistakes and ignoring history. And now we have cable news! This could tip the balance as we collapse from within, overwhelmed by negative energy and endless advertising. In case anybody wonders how I feel about cable news.

Which society? Are we just talking about western civilisation here?

Exactly! Are we so globally connected that we all will collapse without some societies making changes or adapting and surviving?

The Earth is now flat with the advent of the mass proliferation of the internet. 🌍🌎🌏

At least that is what I heard online … 🤔

Capital is published about 1870, and Marx's view of the Internationale gets dimmer and dimmer over the course of his life.

Even in Das Kapital, he was still talking about a Communist mode of production following the end of the Capitalist mode of production, and he was still working on it over the rest of his life. The later volumes were published after his death. Sure, as a supposedly academic work, the book was meant to be descriptive rather than prescriptive, but that was still his ideology talking.

On ETs, indeed, we keep imagining aliens as some sort of all-knowing superior being. Why would we ever assume that? They may well be refugees.

This study seems to be more of a doomsday thing and I am not convinced

The study is using old environmentalist critiques in almost exactly the opposite way as they were originally intended.

"The world is about to end" makes for a good clickable headline.

The development of a type of concrete that can absorb carbon emissions, for example…. not so much.

Has it ended yet ? 🤔🤨

I seriously think the west as an ideological concept is on its way out.

Though that doesn't mean collapse. Instead I think the west will morph into more of what we see in the third world – a few rich people ruling a lot of poor people with middle classes a thing of the past.

This is based on the decline of middle class over last several decades especially in America. Living standards are starting to plateau in much of the west and in many cases are deteriorating.

The result will be less democratic and less egalitarian – again all happening for decades.

I also suspect demographic changes will by 2100:

1. Make USA a largely Hispanic country
2. western Europe largely Islamic or in some cases African
3. Australia near completely Asian with major dominant groups being Indians, Chinese and Filipinos with a small white minority.

Again this has been happening since 1960-70s and is accelerating as western countries gobble up as many economic immigrants to lower labour costs to business.

Again this will have massive cultural and political ramifications that will push back western concepts and values. Indeed in Australia when they had the gay marriage vote, the only jurisdictions that voted against it were those that are primarily immigrant. Even rural areas voted for gay marriage, yet urbanised immigrants did not.

Integration doesn't work when you start accepting large communities of people who can then replicate their home cultures without any issue. Indeed the reason so many second and even third generation Australian muslims ended up becoming terrorists or fighting for ISIS was simply because they lived in Islamic communities which in many ways have totally separate values to mainstream Australia (indeed something like 20 high schools in Sydney were marked as havens for Islamism or at risk of fundamentalism).

Hmmm … check your numbers there … as of 2020 most of the US is "white". Latinos, and I have a lot of Latino friends, etc., so don't play the "race card" on me ! But are according to the CIA as of 2020. They are a "minority". So they will have to do something to make them the majority by 2100 … yes ?

However if that occurs so be it. I do like Latinas and Hispanic foods, etc., and my best Army buddy was an Airborne Ranger – Pablo Martinez. However 80 years or so from now, I'm pretty sure I'll be long gone/dead by then. ☠

Ethnic groups:

white 72.4%,

[*Hispanic 16.3]

Black 12.6%

Asian 4.8

Amerindian and Alaska native 0.9%

Native Hawaiian and other Pacific islander 0.2%,

other 6.2%,

two or more races 2.9% (2010 est.)

*note: a separate listing for Hispanic is not included because the US Census Bureau considers Hispanic to mean persons of Spanish/Hispanic/Latino origin including those of Mexican, Cuban, Puerto Rican, Dominican Republic, Spanish, and Central or South American origin living in the US who may be of any race or ethnic group (white, black, Asian, etc.); an estimated 16.3% of the total US population is Hispanic as of 2010

Definition: This entry provides an ordered listing of ethnic groups starting with the largest and normally includes the percent of total population.

Source: CIA World Factbook – This page was last updated on Friday, November 27, 2020

A similar link as the one above:

link

62.4% of Hispanic and Latino Americans identified as white.[11] 30.5% identified as "some other race" (other than the ones listed). According to the PEP 91.9% of Latinos are white, as these official estimates do not recognize "some other race".[5] In the official estimates, Black or African American Hispanics are the second-largest group, with 1.9 million, or 4.0% of the whole group. The remaining Hispanics are accounted as follows, first per the PEP: 1.6% American Indian and Alaska Native, 1.5% two or more races, 0.7% Asian, and 0.03% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander. Per the ACS: 3.9% two or more races, 1.9% Black or African American, 1.0% American Indian and Alaska Native, 0.4% Asian, and 0.05% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander.[11]

An interesting breakdown …

@Legion 4
Yup, this obsession with race on both the left and right is horrifically damaging. It doesn't matter what skin colour you are. What matters is how you behave. The important thing is liberal (in the proper sense of the word, not modern left wannabe totalitarians) democratic ideals getting passed on, whatever colour the next group of people are. No laws that discriminate based on race, singling out and punishing people based on race, etc.

I agree … my experiences especially in the US Army as an Infantry Officer. Many of us were "color blind". The only color was Green. You judge someone by their deeds and actions not color. I had friends of all races and still do. All their lives mattered to me …

I'm not saying it was Summer Church Camp, it was the Army. But it seemed race never seemed to matter. We depended on each other, etc..

When I see what is happening today in the USA today makes me so angry what some are trying to do when it comes to this topic. We are Americans first, IMO …

I discussed something like this one another thread here – TMP link

Legion 4,

Colour is irrelevant. It's culture.

If you bring 1000 white Australians into a town with 500 Belgians, you will change the culture to an Australian one.

And American Hispanics have their own cultural identity and their cultural notions influence overall culture.

And culture is not just about food you eat or god your pray to. It affects your whole interpretation of the world.

Even if you assimilate you retain elements of your own culture and it influences how you do things..

Remember I am a migrant myself and one that is 100% assimilated – yet my attitudes are more Yugoslav than Australian.

And in the old days this kind of cultural influence was wiped out in 1-2 generations (except Muslims who according to research retain cultural norms a lot longer). But once groups start becoming big enough to maintain their own culture and are constantly reinforced with new migrants, the culture stays.

Here in Australia it's to the point where there are Australians born in Australia who can barely speak English – literally their own migrant communities are large enough to enable them to live without needing to know English.

Are you saying it hasen't already?

Colour is irrelevant. It's culture.

Of course, but today in the USA Color has become a device that make some believe, If you are white you are the oppressor and other than white you are the oppressed. I don't agree with that at all but it part of the woke, CRT, 1619, etc., agenda, etc. Race relations have been set back decades. 'nuff said … this could be a DH'able offense.

Are you saying it hasen't already?

If it has not happen … wait a bit … 😯

but today in the USA Color has become a device that make some believe

As an outsider looking in, I'd say Americans don't have a unified culture. Poor/working class African Americans come across very differently from middle class types and are also vastly different to poor whites. And I note white culture is increasingly fragmented between coasts and the middle. E.g a poor white (called by the derogatory term redneck) is vastly different in culture to a middle class one, especially one educated in a university.

Same's happening here in Australia and in fact across the west.

Social fragmentation is driven by increased inequality, mass emphasis on the cult of individuality and non-conformity, destruction of common values due to institutional failure (government, churches etc), mass consumerism as well as mass immigration (indeed the term multiculturalism in itself means cultural fragmentation) etc.

Governments fostered this destruction of national identity for a variety of reasons.

Americans don't have a unified culture

It got worse last summer.

And I note white culture is increasingly fragmented between coasts and the middle

Bingo ! They don't represent middle America. The Heartland, the backbone of the nation.

a poor white (called by the derogatory term redneck) is vastly different in culture to a middle class one, especially one educated in a university.

But many still know they are Americans first …

Governments fostered this destruction of national identity for a variety of reasons.

Generally not in the USA entirely. Where I live, in Ohio, part of the Heartland but also in the Rustbelt, many I talk to are proud of their ancestors, where they came from, etc. E.g. Ukraine, Italy, Germany, PR, Spain, Mexico, Finland, Poland, Palestine, Hong Kong, Jordan, Russia, Korea, etc., etc. It is not a perfect situation … But in the big pictures we are all Americans

The media makes things look worse than they really are. As I am on the "inside" not outside looking in. Albeit I may have some bias.

But many still know they are Americans first …

For now but less and less. National unity is clearly eroding and is now evident in an increasingly dysfunctional political system.

I actually don't think US will survive the 21st century in its current format. It's been in a state of slow decay since the late 1960s.

Not sure what will replace it either but I suspect it will be either national disintegration or authoritarianism or both.

For now but less and less. National unity is clearly eroding and is now evident in an increasingly dysfunctional political system.

Not as bad as the media makes it look. As I said I live in the Heartland, we are the not so vocal majority. No matter what some say.

I actually don't think US will survive the 21st century in its current format. It's been in a state of slow decay since the late 1960s.

You are being too dystopian, IMO. Things will change for the better in the next few years. I'm not dead yet …

Not sure what will replace it either but I suspect it will be either national disintegration or authoritarianism or both.

Again … Too dystopian, IMO … I see things from the inside. Not what most of the biased, etc., media is "pushing" …

Things will change for the better in the next few years.

Seriously doubt it – you have to dismantle then reverse a neoliberal system and its effects that have been 50 years in the making.

It is commonly accepted the middle class in USA is in decline (61% in 1971, 51% in 2019) and that real incomes (once you take into account inflation) for normal people haven't increased since 1970s – this is called wage stagnation!

Same applies to a lot of western states including Australia whose "wealth" is really just huge amounts of debt invested into consumption which at some point will be unsustainable (well when median house price in Sydney is US$1.04 million).

As for democracy, according to all observers its in decline globally including in the west. Again this is a long term process having started in 2001 when they started jacking up security measures after 9-11.

And as China sucks up more and more wealth, its ideas will start to become more "valid."

This is how fundamentalist Islamism spread too – more secular and populous muslim states like Turkey, Egypt and Indonesia never accumulated as much wealth as the oil states who then poured money into spreading their dogma (eg Saudis alone funded 1500 mosques, 2000 Islamic schools, 200 Islamic colleges, 210 Islamic centres between 1982 and 2005 alone).

Perception of success is important too – hence Putin is held up by some Eastern European politicians such as current Hungarian PM as a great role model.

And when you think about it, it's how modern democracy was spread too.

Not what most of the biased, etc., media is "pushing" …

My own thoughts are based on statistics and legal, policy developments and actual actions of countries. I couldn't care less what MSNBC or Fox or the BBC says unless they've got some good stats.

And most people don't perceive the decline as its gradual, eg increasing homelessness or decreasing job opportunities or poorer access to healthcare let alone subtle legislative changes to privacy and other laws which allow governments to better spy on us and control us better or even increasing rules on what you can and can't do.

Indeed increasing complexity masks decline. Eg when my father came to Australia in 1982 he got a job in the first factory he walked in and asked for a job. Now even for a supermarket job you have to apply formally online and go through a competitive evaluation.

This masks availability of work – in 1982 everyone that wanted a job could have one, whereas today there is stiff competition for even basic jobs because there isn't any and the neoliberal system deliberately creates unemployment by maintaining a mass immigration system (called structural unemployment).

Unemployment stats mask this – if you have 1 hour of paid work or are studying/in training course (no matter how worthless) or are a carer or simply are not actively looking for work you don't get classed as unemployed.

So life trundles on downwards until one day our grandchildren will wake up living in somewhere not far removed from cities such as Rio de Janeiro or Jakarta.

Rome might not have been built in a day, but it certainly wasn't destroyed in a day either.

Rome might not have been built in a day, but it certainly wasn't destroyed in a day either.

Well as we know that to be true. But I hope that paradigm does not happen to the USA.

If so … the world will be ruled/run by the PRC/CCP …

Not a good thing IMO …