"Chinese Global Strategy" Topic

How would China defend its ever-growing possessions if the West finally decided to contain them militarily? Yes. They are building a navy to contest the South China Sea, but their interests extend much further and seem vulnerable.

Probably by threatening to launch a cyber attack and close down the US infrastructure and Western economies (similarly vulnerable)

They may have already done enough to ensure the West does nothing militarily.

China wants to rule the planet … period … Everything they do is generally to that end. And they are in it for the long game.

Interesting points.

My guess is they are counting on "the West" to remain splintered, and to not be able to agree on anything, which given the last 30 – 50 years, seems like a good bet.

The American military is actually pretty weak now, compared to our forces in past decades, and I suspect that will not improve in the next 3+ years and 9 months.

Our "allies" around the globe are even weaker, and getting more so far more quickly than the USA. As they've seen, NATO can't agree on a clear strategy to deal with Russia, and the EU's policies vs. Iran and stopping its nuke and ballistic programs are a total joke. Those in power in the EU don't seem to care if Iran gets "the bomb" and heavy rockets to carry them, nor does the regime in charge here now either.

Given that, as well as our inaction against North Korea, my guess is they've done the calculus and decided that America and the West will do little, if anything to, or against them, regardless of how they act. Clear demonstration of this is the lack of discussion and action on their abuse of the Uighirs, and the same can be said against China in their treatment of the people of Hong Kong, not to mention that we did virtually nothing after Tianenmen Square.

Yes, they are vulnerable in many ways, but the USA and Western nations are also, especially as mentioned, due to hacking, and EMP attack. I see NO discussion in the current infrastructure bill about addressing our electrical grid vulnerabilities, or our banking system, water supply, waste treatment, and other critical infrastructure services needs.

In addition, the Chinese leadership has curried favor with a lot of our political leaders, and has bought and paid for some, and no doubt made great promises to others, so they can count on little to no opposition from them, if not outright support for their actions.

As you can see in the media, China is doing their best to slam US policies, practices, and even democracy itself.

They hope that some people will believe them, if they tell the lies and exaggerations often enough. By doing this, they hope to turn individuals and countries against the USA, and they want to replace the US dollar as the basis for trade. They've been working on the latter for quite some time now.

Around the globe, they are working to create deals with other countries, and then use those agreements in order to extort concessions from them, when/if they can't live up to their fiscal responsibilities.

President Xi doesn't have to worry about running for office, or raising money to fund a political campaign, and can count on most in the government to back him, so he has pretty much a free hand to work on plans, and implement actions to oppose America over the long term.

The USA, and I suspect others, have no consistent policies or leaders to effectively oppose President Xi and China, which cedes a huge advantage to him and his country as well.

+01 Thresher01. You should be Secretary of State.

I suppose no one has the stomach or now the ability to oppose them. I wonder what the situation will look like in 2024? Has the West passed the point of no return?

+1 Thresher01

Also, I don't think we're at the point of no return, but if we don't put an effort into our military, cyber, political, and economic factors -- also in a coordinated manner, it'll be that much more difficult of it turns into a shooting war.

But I don't think China wants a shooting war. It will position itself geostrategically so that an adversary will not want to challenge China. Already China is in a position to control the world's sea lanes of communication, they're at least on par with the US from a technology standpoint, and have already demonstrated they're willing to engage in Cyber warfare and technology theft without paying a price.

Raylev,

Well said.

China (and Russia, Iran and North Korea) doesn't want a shooting war. They're playing the long game of terminal American decline (and the Europeans ceased to be any kind of power by the 1970s).

And thanks to a growing western cultural suicide cult, that decline has just been accelerated.

I suppose no one has the stomach or now the ability to oppose them

There are no more Churchills in the west, only Chamberlains and Quislings.

We in the West will be in big trouble in short order, if the Chinese can take, or blockade Taiwan, since the small island country (yes, I said it – Taiwan IS a free and democratic country separate from China) produces 50% of the world's computer chips.

China is attempting to lock down and limit the sale/transfer of rare earth metals, and combined with computer chips which we need for virtually everything, they'll have a tremendous amount of bargaining power for quite some time.

By cutting off/closing the South China Sea to free transit, things will be much more difficult for Japan, Taiwan, and other Asian nations in the region too, since 30% of the world's good flow through there.

I would not be surprised if China eventually tries to impose an air and naval blockade against Taiwan before it tries an invasion, should the latter prove necessary. I doubt Taiwan could hold out for long against that, and am not sure the USA will be able to provide the needed forces to break it, without a shooting war breaking out.

Good points, Thresher01. But a blockade/ is de facto war. First time someone tries to run it, it will either start a shooting war, or it won't be a blockade.

That will be the question, will someone try to run the blockade or will they just avoid the area to avoid looking like an instigator?

Taiwan IS a free and democratic country separate from China

No it's not. Even Taiwan (Republic of China) does not recognise itself as independent. It's legally part of China.

There are already reports coming that elements of the KMT and other pro-reunification parties would sooner side with PRC than let Taiwan declare independence.

This situation is a mess.

It's something to be carefully managed with status quo being about the best the west can manage. Any escalation will probably see Taiwan occupied by PRC.

The Chinese sabre rattling is just that (and they've been doing it since 1949!)

The real winnable fight is the SC Sea (which ironically Taiwan also claims as it considers itself to be China!).

And it is in the SC Sea the west is losing rapidly.

See the other Thread on China, but Taiwan doesn't consider itself a part of China, they consider themselves to BE China. The one China policy is a convenient fiction where the ROC considers itself to be the rightful ruler of all China and Taiwan and the PRC considers itself to be the rightful ruler of all China and Taiwan.

No one asked what the native Taiwanese islanders who were pushed out by both (and the Japanese before them) think about who owns Taiwan since everyone stopped asking them a century ago.

Taiwan manufactures something like 50% of the worlds supply of computer Chips. Other nations better up their IC manufacturing game if Taiwan is 'unified' into the PRC.

However, I would agree that it is not as likely that China would directly invade. A sea invasion over that great a distance is no mean feat, and would be impossible to do unnoticed, which means that the ROC would be able to throw everything they could at the invading ships. An airborne invasion is possible, but harder, since paratroops and helicopters aren't going to be brining heavy equipment with them, and again, would be impossible to do unnoticed, and the Taiwanese have somewhat decent anti air defenses (at least enough to take down a portion of an invasion force).

Political coercion is the probable course, and the KMT is indeed very well infiltrated by the communist Chinese, but the issue for the PRC is that the younger Taiwanese are increasingly voting against the KMT and they don't want to be part of the PRC.

the younger Taiwanese are increasingly voting against the KMT and they don't want to be part of the PRC.

Yet it is those same young people who do not wish to service in Taiwan's military to defend it against possible Chinese aggression.

This is the problem with modern consumer societies.

As for infiltration of KMT by Communists, I think the truth is KMT and CCP have always been alike in many ways. The KMT or Nationalist Party of China is after all essentially an old fascist party that rebranded itself in the 1990s. They even used to have their own version of Mussolini's Black Shirts – the Blue Shirts.

So as CCP pivots from communism to fascism, their values align closer with the old KMT ones.