Perun Gromovnik | 24 Mar 2021 10:51 a.m. PST |
Interesting scenario, what is your opinion about it: link |
Uesugi Kenshin | 24 Mar 2021 5:28 p.m. PST |
I could never get into the "NATO Offensive" scenarios except for maybe a revolution occurring in Poland or more likely the DDR. |
Thresher01 | 24 Mar 2021 6:59 p.m. PST |
Yea, NATO coming to the aid of USSR territories that flip could be plausible, I suppose, though I imagine some, more than others might elicit a very strong response, e.g. up to and including tactical nukes and chemicals, in addition to conventional forces. |
Perun Gromovnik | 24 Mar 2021 11:40 p.m. PST |
Yes, NATO attack in favour of "revolution" is interesting scenario. I dont understud why could not be attack whitout revolution. |
Johnp4000 | 25 Mar 2021 3:18 a.m. PST |
I always wonder with this scenario, how many of the lesser NATO countries would have committed troops to an attack? |
ScoutJock | 25 Mar 2021 9:36 a.m. PST |
Our BW partnership unit told us the if the Russians came west, they and their NVA " brothers" we're planning to join forces and go east to restore a united, independent Germany. Sounds good in theory but I don't know how realistic that option would be. |
Uesugi Kenshin | 25 Mar 2021 9:42 a.m. PST |
Perun, as JohnP states, most Nato nations would have no desire to go to war. WWII was too fresh in their minds. Nato was a strictly defensive political and military entity. While Warsaw Pact was nominally a defensive arrangement as well, WP countries would be more likely to join the Soviet Union in an offensive war than would Nato countries join the US in a war of aggression. |
Perun Gromovnik | 25 Mar 2021 11:11 a.m. PST |
I heard about defensive planing but also i heard about operation "Unthinkable" and "Dropshot"… and nowadays NATO is in Afghanistan so I guess that under "good" explanation there could be eastward attack. I think that helping "1989. revolutions" could be nice motive for masses. Although Soviets would call it contra revolutions |
ReallySameSeneffeAsBefore | 25 Mar 2021 4:01 p.m. PST |
Very little convincing on logistics in this doc. I recall a USAREUR study of the late 1980s assessing that its full stretch wartime logistics capacity could probably push one division 150km East of the IGB, and two-three divisions (III Corp perhaps although not stated) 80-100km- in an operational level counterstroke scenario. It also suggested that best estimates of WP logistic capacity meant that- if all went well- they could perhaps get some forces to the Rhine, but very little beyond. It's in Military Review IIRC and I recall being surprised by its frankness. |
Perun Gromovnik | 26 Mar 2021 1:52 a.m. PST |
Did you mean on this: link |
Legion 4 | 27 Mar 2021 4:29 p.m. PST |
When I was in the US ARMY, '79-'90. If war broke out our mission, which would be the same for NATO AFAIK, is to reestablish the IGB. No drive on Berlin or even Moscow(!). There has been a number of studies about the logistics of WWIII in Europe. Both sides may quickly run out of ammo, replacements, etc. I've heard/read/studied even in a few months both sides would be suffering large shortages of all classes of supplies. Of course there is always knives, sticks & stones, etc. And of course no one decides to start tossing WMDs around either. |
Perun Gromovnik | 27 Mar 2021 11:43 p.m. PST |
Is there any link to those studies |
Legion 4 | 28 Mar 2021 8:15 a.m. PST |
I wish I had kept those links, journals, etc., … IIRC some were posted here on TMP … On the Cold War Board. I'll see if I can find some of them again ? |
Perun Gromovnik | 28 Mar 2021 9:38 a.m. PST |
I would be grateful if you finde it |
Legion 4 | 28 Mar 2021 5:09 p.m. PST |
I tried to find them … it must have been a while ago … I even tried to find a link(s) on the topic online. But no joy. I will continue to see if I can find something. |
Perun Gromovnik | 28 Mar 2021 8:34 p.m. PST |
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ReallySameSeneffeAsBefore | 29 Mar 2021 4:01 p.m. PST |
Perun- thankyou. That wasn't the Military Review article I was thinking of but it is a good find that I will read with interest! Incidentally, more than one of the NORTHAG level exercises in the late 1980s had its forces crossing a short distance over the IGB (eg Magdeburg area) as a counterstroke following a WP invasion. That would be about as far as they could reach. You're probably aware of this but almost all WP exercises in Europe followed a similar script (copies are in Germany, Poland and elsewhere)- NATO attacks WP countries directly, sometimes even with a ground invasion (!); or NATO launches 'aggressive action', not necessarily military, elsewhere in the world. In response (always in response) the WP launches a 'counterattack' which storms West across the IGB and ends up at the Rhine, the English Channel, the Pyrenees, etc. The main variations were whether nuclear weapons were used or not- examples of both variants still exist. |
Perun Gromovnik | 29 Mar 2021 7:43 p.m. PST |
Thanks mate. CIA foia have good translations of WP exercises and more documents about WP. I am short of NATO side capabilities from that period. Bouth sides played only counterattacks |
Legion 4 | 30 Mar 2021 10:02 a.m. PST |
NATO played Defense then Counterattack … the latter is more "fun". I was an M113 Mech Co. Cdr during REFORGER '88 … |
Perun Gromovnik | 01 Apr 2021 9:06 p.m. PST |
As I researched a bit I think that it could be done. If NATO had at least 6 months for preparation it could be done. Combined with internal problems in WP countries and regularly annual exercises preparations could be hidden |
Legion 4 | 02 Apr 2021 1:41 p.m. PST |
Well as you know the US had prepositioned AFV, etc. stocks[POMCUS] in West Germany during the Cold War. We were sure the USSR had most of those sites targeted, etc. When we sent our Vehicles from the US to West Germany for REFORGER'88. It took about 2-3 weeks to get to Europe. Then we flew over by USAF assets, and met up with our vehicles at a railhead. Note: We uploaded our vehicles at a railhead at Ft. Benning, GA, where our Mech Hvy Bde was stationed. Then trains took the vehicles[+ driver & TC, + a small maint. element IIRC] to the Port of Savanah, GA.[IIRC]. Loaded them aboard ship. The ship(s) arrived at Antwerp, about 2-3 weeks later. Loaded on railcars then met us at a railhead in Karlstaht(?). We off loaded them there and rolled out to our Assembly Area(s). We flew from the USA by USAF cargo aircraft. Landed at Rhine-Mein(IIRC). Bussed/trucked to the railhead and waited for our vehicles to arrive by train. About 10 hrs later … As far as I can remember … but that is pretty accurate for the most part I'm. And you saw how long the build up for Desert Storm took. Too long to save Western Europe if the USSR/WP rolled East. Lighter units like e.g. the 82d and 101 could have got there fairly quickly. Along with some lighter elements of the USMC. Heavier element e.g. Mech Inf & Tank Bdes/Divs would take much longer. Yes, it could be done in 6 months or so … but I don't think the USSR/WP would give us that much of a warning. The units stationed in West Germany, Europe would have to fight on their own for the most part. Would the ammo, parts, bodies, etc. last, that long ? On both sides …? internal problems in WP countries Yes, it was in question if all WP would roll East with their "USSR masters"… regularly annual exercises preparations could be hidden IMO Highly unlikely with orbital assets, aircraft recon elements, other intel assets, etc. Plus it was pretty certain there was a plethora of USSR, etc., agents all over West Germany/Europe. One threat may have even been by foreign agents going after the POMCUS stocks. So they were everywhere. We had agents in the East as well … AFAIK … Pretty hard to keep any big unit movements secret … |
Perun Gromovnik | 03 Apr 2021 2:21 a.m. PST |
It is always interesting to listen some with experience. Thank you on your comments. Scenario is that NATO goes east to help late 1980s (contra)revolutions. I know that exercises would be monitored, I ment that for example Reforger units came like scheduled but they dont return, they rather stay. And exercise by exercise, same for Brits, Dutch…after at least 6 months. Mass media could play significant role in camouflaged real purpose of concentrating NATO forces |
Legion 4 | 03 Apr 2021 5:27 p.m. PST |
Well they certainly knew when a REFORGER was going to occur. The USSR even had military observers in West Germany as part of some way to "keep the peace". Plus as I said, agents would be everywhere. As we were told both in West Germany, the ROK and even Panama the Canal Zone. Your favorite gal in town, or place to eat off post. She/they would be listening to every word. You say to them and even among yourselves. While she is serving to beer, she maybe listening … If REFROGER units stayed, that would put the USSR/WP on alert. Plus all the other intel assets are listening and watching. The media could provide "disinformation" to maybe keep the USSR/WP guessing ? But I still think they'd be watching very closely. If you remember the daily briefings during Desert Storm, Gen Schwartzkopt, etc. would sometime say something during a briefing that was disinformation. E.g. He kept talking about the USMC/USN assets off the Iraqi coast. That was classic adeception plan. Those assets stayed off the coast. The Iraqis left 3 Divs or so guarding the coast in prep for an amphib landing. That never really came. But the USSR/WP are not Saddam … so … |
Perun Gromovnik | 14 Apr 2021 3:30 a.m. PST |
Is there any similar paper on this topic |
Legion 4 | 14 Apr 2021 7:40 a.m. PST |
Hmmm … I'm not sure ? I've been trained, wargaming, studying, reading, etc., on this subject, while on active duty. And even after I got out in '90. I don't know of just one paper on this topic. Which is large and covers a lot of ground. I don't doubt there are books, journals, articles, etc., out there. But at this time I can't give any titles, etc. I'll see what I can find online, etc. |
Legion 4 | 14 Apr 2021 7:13 p.m. PST |
I saw this online … may be of some use to you … link |
Perun Gromovnik | 14 Apr 2021 11:22 p.m. PST |
Thanks a lot mate. I found it most interesting. It seems easier to find scenario where WP is attacker. It would be fun to try otherwise, that NATO take the ride to the east. Is there any link that i could download those magazines for free |
ReallySameSeneffeAsBefore | 15 Apr 2021 5:44 a.m. PST |
A NATO ride East is an interesting scenario but a long way from a feasible reality. The WP armies were set up at least in theory for a theatre-wide conventional offensive into NATO territory, although their real logistic capability was questionable. But NATO forces were simply not set up for any kind of theatre-level offensive- their logistics even when fully reinforced by reservists could just about put a division or two across the IGB for a counterstroke operation. The bridging equipment, fuel trucks etc to support a long advance just didn't exist in the required numbers. The other reason a NATO initial attack was not feasible was the NATO countries themselves. The governments were only just united enough to agree to defend each other if attacked, let alone agreeing to attack anyone else. Likewise the media could not be used as a disinformation tool- it was much too diverse and independent- all those non-government TV and radio channels and newspapers. Plus WP intelligence work as mentioned. Also all NATO forces were heavily reliant on calling out reservists to maintain fighting capability for more than a few days even on the defensive. No country held exercises where all of the reserves were called out, only selected groups to test the processes. Same with REFORGER, even the biggest exercises only brought over a couple of Divisions' worth of troops, and much less equipment. The aim was to test the processes and give some of the troops experience of the European theatre. A US Reserve and National Guard call out big enough to sustain a pre-emptive attack on the WP out would have been very big and very public- same for other countries. I think those factors explain why there aren't any archive papers about a NATO pre-emptive invasion of WP territory- no such plans were ever made. Even if NATO had the desire and unity to do that (very unlikely), it would have impossible to plan and prepare in secret. But plans for a pre-emptive strategic nuclear strike on the WP, in the Curtis LeMay era of the 50s and early 60s, maybe that's more plausible. Probably not NATO plans however- and certainly not much of a wargame scenario. |
Perun Gromovnik | 15 Apr 2021 9:03 a.m. PST |
Excellent explanation, thank you |
Perun Gromovnik | 15 Apr 2021 10:25 a.m. PST |
And thanks to all who contributes to this topic |
Legion 4 | 15 Apr 2021 11:34 a.m. PST |
Is there any link that i could download those magazines for free Don't know, check on the link, I'd guess. Also, I think I may have mentioned our mission in the ROK was to drive on to Pyongyang and beyond to unite the 2 Koreas.
Where in West Germany our mission was to just reestablish the IGB. For obvious reasons. Back then the Norks didn't have Nukes and a smaller military. But back then the USSR/WP was a very large combat force. And NATO was too at that time. But NATO after[if] surviving and attiting(?) the USSR/WP. There would be local NATO counter-attacks, to reestablish the IGB, etc. But as we have noted, logistics would be the critical factor for both sides. "Amateurs study tactics … professionals study logistics." |
Perun Gromovnik | 15 Apr 2021 3:14 p.m. PST |
Thanks, experience means a lot |
Legion 4 | 16 Apr 2021 4:12 p.m. PST |
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Perun Gromovnik | 07 May 2021 3:14 p.m. PST |
Interesting and similar possibility, page 4 under paragraph "b" PDF link |
Legion 4 | 08 May 2021 10:39 a.m. PST |
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