"How Would China Respond If President Biden Pledges To" Topic

…Defend Taiwan?

"A top U.S. admiral has warned that China could invade Taiwan in the next six years, sparking renewed concerns over Beijing's military designs on the island state to its southeast.

"I worry that they're accelerating their ambitions to supplant the United States and our leadership role in the rules-based international order, which they've long said that they want to do that by 2050. I'm worried about them moving that target closer," said Admiral Phil Davidson at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Tuesday. "Taiwan is clearly one of their ambitions before then. And I think the threat is manifest during this decade, in fact in the next six years."…"
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Imho… if President Biden pledge to defend Taiwan is not the issue that concerns China… what concerns China is if this "pledge" will then be used by Taiwan to declare independence. A declaration of independence from Taiwan is China's "red line". That independence declaration will escalate military operations from China exponentially… even (I predict) having Chinese fighter jets fly over Taiwan that will force Taiwan to respond. And after that …. I can easily see all the worse case scenarios coming into play….

Armand

Ain't going to happen. He's not going to defend Taiwan

Some more red lines.

Yep … ain't going to happen …

red lines

Yeah I remember how those red lines worked out last time in Syria.

Let's find out first if Taiwan will defend Taiwan.
Then, if we MUST get involved…. hey I know it's a crazy idea ….. how about letting Congress declare war? I mean, after all, Congress hasn't done that in 80 years. It would do the children good to see them do something constitutional for a change. Civics 101.

Not declaring war in 80 years is splitting hairs a bit. Congressional authorizations have been given aplenty. There is plausible denial in the alternative… lol

Arm Taiwan, Japan and S. Korea with nukes and pull out – sit back, watch and then sell them PPE.

I suspect that Japan already has nukes. Easy to hide things in the Ninja budget.

Oh, sure. Taiwan too.

A declaration of independence from Taiwan is China's "red line

What I find so strange about that statement is that the entire world knows that Tawain is completely independent from China.

Yep, the Pentagon's spokesman even just walked back saying we support the Japanese over the Senkaku Islands the other day, since apparently the Chinese were displeased by that.

It's unclear if financial paymemnts/aid to certain family members were threatened to be cut off, but since those Chinese ties have not been cut as promised, there's still a lot of leverage there I suspect.

Nukes for those countries would be a game changer, and is probably the only way to ensure their safety now.

That may be true … but the PRC/CCP may be willing to take the losses in a nuclear exchange with Japan, Taiwan, the ROK, etc. As long as the US does not get involved. Again the PRC is 20% of the planet. As they say about sports teams, "they have depth in their bench." …

1.5 billion reasons not to.

As they say about sports teams, "they have depth in their bench." …

Nah -- they have a lot of vulnerabilities. All of their industry and commerce centers are on the coastline, they have very little interior economy and no significant sources of domestic raw materials or overland commerce. For example:

1. In 2020 China produced 79 million tons of steel domestically, but imported some 1 billion tons from global sources.

2. China produces some 4-5 million barrels of oil a day, but must import 3-4x that, some 12-15 million barrels of oil a day.

3. China is not food independent, it imports twice as much food than it produces.

4. They are not a monolithic society, and the CCP rules much of the country by fear which consumes vast resources to maintain their extensive police state.

5. They are an export focused economy and do not yet have a robust domestic consumer economy, and are economically vulnerable to any significant changes in global commerce.

It's not like the CCP doesn't know this. China has no strategic staying power. So it has to appear strong when in may ways it is weak, and will go for a knock-out blow in any conflict and then pose as if victory is a fait accompli, accept the new order, don't anger the Dragon.

This puts the in the same position as Japan in 1941. Not a pretty picture.

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SBMinisguy. They are also the 2bd largest economy on the planet (1st by 2028-2034) responsible for huge amount of output onlcuding a lot of things the west is no longer able to make.

Without Chinese exports, livimg standards in the west and elsewhere will collapse. I think it was Apple who said an iPhone manufactured in the US would cost $30,000 USD – $100,000 USD a piece.

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In fact economically China is closer to US in 1941 than Japan who was a very snall player then.

Also people have been predicting fall of China for decades now. It is wishful thinking.

In tbe meantime the west's decline is evident. And note our decline is long tern – it starts in Europe in late 1940s and America in late 1960s.

The economic crises of the 1970s showed how weak the west had become. Reagan, Thatcher et al tried masking it with hyperconsumerism and neo liberalism but this just exacerbated the situation in the long run.

Didn't say they didn't have vulnerabilities … Just they have a lot of ships, aircraft, missiles and bodies. But in the long run it is to no ones advantage to go to war … At least at this time …

SBMinisguy. They are also the 2bd largest economy on the planet (1st by 2028-2034) responsible for huge amount of output onlcuding a lot of things the west is no longer able to make.

Yep, while they've been growing their domestic economy the largest single sector of their economy is global export-based, with a growing global finance sector. And with what countries? The Western countries they are positioning to attack and dominate…

Without Chinese exports, livimg standards in the west and elsewhere will collapse. I think it was Apple who said an iPhone manufactured in the US would cost $30,000 USD USD – $100,000 USD USD a piece.

Only temporarily while alternative sources both domestic and in other countries like India were spun up.

Also people have been predicting fall of China for decades now. It is wishful thinking.

Who? Nobody. The wishful thinking has been that as the Chinese economy grew the CCP would be forced to liberalize and China would evolve into a democracy. That dream ended at Tiananmen Square, now that ideal is used a smokescreen for greedy companies, interest groups and politicians getting fat on CCP cash.

In tbe meantime the west's decline is evident. And note our decline is long tern – it starts in Europe in late 1940s and America in late 1960s.

The economic crises of the 1970s showed how weak the west had become. Reagan, Thatcher et al tried masking it with hyperconsumerism and neo liberalism but this just exacerbated the situation in the long run.

OK, you're totally off the rails there. If you think people have been predicting China's demise for decades, Socialists of all ilk have been predicting the Fall of the West for about 7 generations. Isn't that what Lenin boasted, that the West would sell the Soviets the very rope they used to hang us? China makes similar boasts now -- perhaps with better reason given the deluge of Chinese money and influence washing through the West.

And you seem to feel that Reagan and Thatcher had the ability to create "hyperconsumerism" as if they were central planners. Nope, they were deconstructionists, anti-Statists who were able to empower individuals and the free market to push the central planners back into the closest for a few decades -- unleashing an amazing bloom of economic activity. Alas, the Central Planners have been rising in power since Clinton – stalled briefly by Trump, and now back on the rise. They like China's approach, they like China's cash -- they don't care about individualism or the free market. Crony Capitalism and monopoly control is just fine with them!

Didn't say they didn't have vulnerabilities … Just they have a lot of ships, aircraft, missiles and bodies. But in the long run it is to no ones advantage to go to war … At least at this time …

Those who seek to start wars always think there's an advantage to them. But as a Glass Cannon, China will seek to get in a powerful knock-out blow that stops short of inviting a nuclear response. I worry we will not be able to deter such aggression if we continue to have China appeasers running the show.

Weakness invites aggression. Did you know that after the Soviet Union collapsed and their state archives opened up, there were documents showing that the Politburo actually considered a First Strike on the US during the Carter presidency?? They felt there was a window of opportunity to launch a "disabling strike" on US land-based missile forces and bomber bases, and then tell Carter to stand down…that they spared most US targets and only acted of necessity to remove the threat of US land based weapons. If the US retaliated with SLBMs then they would be forced to end the world. They felt he might blink and they would win everything.

Oh -- and in case of a NATO-Warsaw Pact conflict the Soviets planned to escalate to general use of tac nukes and chem weapons on day one, and anticipated dipping their toes in the Bay of Biscay within three weeks. Sorry "non-aligned" France…

Those who seek to start wars always think there's an advantage to them. But as a Glass Cannon, China will seek to get in a powerful knock-out blow that stops short of inviting a nuclear response. I worry we will not be able to deter such aggression if we continue to have China appeasers running the show.

Weakness invites aggression.

👍👍

Thatcher and Reagan promoted deindustrialosation. The last years US peiple actually had real economic gain was 1978-79 – it is stagnation in living standards ever since.

Thatcher/Reagan just handed power to corporations who off shored production. They also enabled the west's biggest problem – financialisation of the economy and the shift of massive amounts of capital into non productive financial sector.

As for who promotes China's impendong collapse – it has been right wing types like yourself. I have been reading their predictions for two decades now.

Yes, Gordon Chang who is a Conservation "China" Expert said the PRC/CCP was going to collapse a few years back. If we have learn anything for a few years now and even more recently … If they are supposed to be an "expert" … They probably ain't. They just get lucky sometimes …

Ah yes. The "contradictions inherent in the system" experts. I bet the Carthaginian experts felt the same way about Rome.

I'm not sure he would defend the United States let alone another country.

Errata :

Conservation "China" Expert

Damned auto-correct ! That should be Conservative "China" Expert …

DOH !!!! 😣