"The Pendulum: How Russia Sways its way to more..." Topic

… INFLUENCE IN LIBYA

"Russia has been doing well in Libya — and it likes the fact that few seem to notice it. When describing the relationship between eastern Libyan-based commander Khalifa Haftar and the Kremlin, press articles have been littered with phrases such as "the Russian-backed Libyan general," "Moscow's man," and other verbiage that gives the impression of a straightforward dynamic whereby the Russian state bets and relies on Haftar and therefore focuses on supporting, not undermining, him. Yet a more granular timeline of events reveals a different reality. Since 2014, the United Arab Emirates has been a steadfast, generous, and consequential foreign benefactor for the strongman of Benghazi. In contrast, Russia's attitude toward him has been complex and ambivalent. The old concept of proxy warfare, whereby a foreign actor chooses indigenous agents as the conduit of its weapons, training and funding, is of little pertinence in the case of Russia's Libya policy. To increase little by little its sway over Libya's centers of decision-making, Moscow has followed a less intuitive, more innovative methodology. And it has done so successfully thus far.

It is first important to explore the motivations animating Libya's three top meddlers, Turkey, the Emirates, and Russia. We can then better understand Moscow's multifaceted action and shine a spotlight on how the Russian state manages to gain political sway — often irrespective of the conflict's twists, turns, and reversals…"
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Courtesy of the War on the Rocks website