These "virtual prisoners" were on the driving seat until mid 43. Italy or Africa only became theatres of war because Italy was involved first.
Agreed.
The Italians certainly started the campaign in North Africa, as well as the campaign in Albania and Greece. But what caused the start of active combat in the Mediterranean region does not change the circumstances of mid-1943.
And so …
The presence of German troops in Italy was relatively light and connected to the war efforts, eg with logistics or the air force, or in preparation for the defense of Sicily.
Well yes, but all those German troops that were sent to defend Sicily, 4 divisions worth, came back to southern Italy. And they managed to do it in relatively good order, bringing much of their equipment with them.
And there was the whole re-enforcing of Italian defenses that had been agreed between OKH and Commando Supremo in April that was still under way, forming 3 German field forces from troops that had been evacuated from North Africa:
- Sicily Force (later 15th Infantry Division)
- Sardinia Force (later 90th Light Infantry Division)
- Reaction Force (bolstered by the 16th Pr Div, which was dispatched to Bari in June)
Only after Hitler learned of the Italian plans to swap sides did he send six divisions to Italy, at the end of July 43.
Sure would like to see some primary information, or well reputed secondary sources on this issue.
Most historical writers tell the sequence rather differently.
- In May Kietel of OKW had begun the planning of Operation Alerich, the German invasion of the Italian mainland in the case of an Italian defection from the Axis.
- 3 German divisions were sent to Italy, the 3rd PGr Divsion (deployed north of Rome), the 29th Pzr Div (deployed to Reggio Calabria in the very southern tip), and the 26th Pzr Div (deployed near Salerno). All three were in place by July 9. The HQ of Hube's XIV Panzer Korps was also sent to Reggio Calabria to bolster command resources for these forces.
- Rommel was placed in Bavaria to organize the further forces for Operation Alerich. This is where the "6 divisions" came from.
- Hitler went to meet with Mussolini in Veneto, in Northern Italy, on July 19. In the time leading up to this, Mussolini had requested 2 more divisions, then Commando Supremo backed away from that request. At the meeting Mussolini again requested German reinforcements be sent.
- Hitler expressed confidence in Mussolini's resolve after the Veneto meeting. On July 25, on the same day in which he would later hear that Mussolini had been deposed but before that news reached him, Hitler ordered the closing down of planning for Operational Alerich, and that the 6 divisions (those assembled by Rommel) be sent to Italy. These were not sent under the plans of a counter invasion, but as reinforcements to an ally.
One of the very first steps Marshall Badoglio took after deposing Mussolini was to reach out to the German government, both personally and through regular diplomatic channels, to give assurances that Italy was still a part of the Axis alliance. Not that there is any reason to believe the Germans were comforted by these assurances.
It is worth noting that the Italians had no working contacts with the western Allies at this point. To say they had plans to switch sides does not make any sense. About the most one could say was that they were seeking a way to withdraw from the war. But with the Allies planning an imminent invasion of the Italian mainland, and the Germans distributed up and down the Italian mainland in defense against the Allies, there was no plan to withdraw from the war, as there was no credible path to achieving that result.
Joint planning meetings continued between the German and Italian staffs through mid-August. At no point did the Italians refuse German forces. In fact they expressed less resistance than before to additional reinforcements. The first meeting between an emissary of the Badoglio administration and a representative of the western Allies didn't take place until August 14th, in Madrid.
Now it is quite possible that this timeline is not entirely correct, or that there is at least some credible counter-evidence. So I would be quite interested to see what it is.
But barring that, I can not see how one could see this sequence and say that there were no meaningful German forces in Italy until after the Germans learned that the Italians were seeking to change sides.
-Mark
(aka: Mk 1)
paints 
