Tango01 | 28 Sep 2020 4:10 p.m. PST |
… Armenian enclave. "Fighting escalated sharply on Monday between Azerbaijan and its ethnic Armenian mountain enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, and at least 55 people were killed in a second day of heavy clashes. The two sides pounded each other with rockets and artillery in the fiercest round of the decades-old conflict in more than a quarter of a century…" Main page link Amicalement Armand
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rmaker | 28 Sep 2020 4:19 p.m. PST |
decades-old conflict More like a millennium old. |
Thresher01 | 28 Sep 2020 10:15 p.m. PST |
Interesting. Not that it really matters, but I wonder which side started it? I seem to recall when looking at the forces for each side a while back, that the Armenians are a bit outnumbered. It will be interesting to see if Russia helps to redress that imbalance. |
Cuprum2 | 28 Sep 2020 10:49 p.m. PST |
It began clearly from the side of Azerbaijan, given that the recruitment of mercenaries in Lebanon for this war began a month ago (these are all the same Turkish proxies that fought in Syria and Libya). It's hard to say … Russia is not interested in losing the role of arbiter in this conflict. I think that assistance can be rendered to the Armenians by supplying weapons to compensate for Turkish supplies to Azerbaijan. But the situation will change dramatically if the Azeibarjans invade or strike directly at the territory of Armenia – this country is a member of the CSTO and the rest of the members of this treaty are obliged to provide each other with assistance in case of aggression from outside. |
Barin1 | 29 Sep 2020 12:00 a.m. PST |
Yes, it seems that Turkey provides not only military hardware and intelligence, but Syrian mercenaries too. link As far as I see from rhetorics, Azerbaijan wants to solve the problem by returning Nagornyi Karabakh under its rule, without attacking Armenian territory – as there're implications of CSTO with a large scale war. However it is also limits option of Armenia, as it should restrain its attacks against Azerbaijan territory where it can hurt the most.If Azerbaijan can get into Karabakh territory before ceasefire agreement, they'll stay there on better positions than before, waiting for the next time. |
ROUWetPatchBehindTheSofa | 29 Sep 2020 7:45 a.m. PST |
Though Turkey is claiming that the Armenian-side is being helped by the PPK and YPG (not that I give those any credence)! |
Barin1 | 29 Sep 2020 8:13 a.m. PST |
This is very unlikely, but recent developments in the region are very concerning. Armenia reported its SU-25 downed over its territory by Turkish F-16, operating from an Azeri airfield. Azernaijan denies this, but it is getting closer to a serious potential conflict. If Armenia is attacked, CSTO article will be involved, which can bring Russia, Byelorussia and Kazakhstan into the war on Armenian side. At the same time Turkey is anouncing that they're going tp provide full support to their "Azeri brothers" (that's how it is in the statement), so if for instance Armenia downs Turkish jets – will it be a case for NATO involvement? Both sides reporting hundreds of combatants killed and dozens of armor/SAM/drones destroyed, as well as some planes and helicopters. Some military forums here are saying that Azerbijan is trying to cut N.Karabakh from main Armenia and then starve it into surrender. To do this they need to cut a couple of canyon roads, local Karabakh media reports heavy losses of attackers, while Azerbijan announced that it has destroyed a large Armenian units and killed its commander. Even if these reports mkight be the same as in Iran-Iraq conflict, there's enough videos showing large scale combat…. |
greatpatton | 29 Sep 2020 11:04 a.m. PST |
Really NATO is dead, if Armenia was attacking directly Turkey, nobody in NATO will move a finger. Given the Turkey/Russia relation (and their relation for the last few centuries), it is very likely that green little men will start to appear in the region very quickly. Turkey has decided to be the new bad guy of the region and will use all their proxies, it's time to kick them out of NATO. Their last friend in the alliance are the USA… BTW, it is very strange that we had a war with Serbia to protect the small Muslim minority of Kosovo, but here nobody will side with the Armenian. |
Tango01 | 29 Sep 2020 12:42 p.m. PST |
Thanks Barin!…. Amicalement Armand
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Thresher01 | 29 Sep 2020 1:26 p.m. PST |
"BTW, it is very strange that we had a war with Serbia to protect the small Muslim minority of Kosovo, but here nobody will side with the Armenian". Not surprising at all if you consider who was in power at the time. Very sad, but not surprising. |
Thresher01 | 29 Sep 2020 2:44 p.m. PST |
Hmmm, things are getting even more interesting, since the Armenians are claiming one of their Su-25s was shot down by a Turkish F-16. Another post I saw, claims that "most probably" the jet was downed by an Azeri Mig-29. The "most probably" claim doesn't impress me with a high degree of confidence. |
arealdeadone | 29 Sep 2020 5:59 p.m. PST |
What's interesting is that yet again it appears drones are systematically dismantling air defence systems as happened in Libya and Syria. link It should be noted Armenian systems are older than the ones destroyed in Libya or Syria. However it's increasingly obvious that expensive air defence systems are extremely vulnerable to cheap drones. |
Tango01 | 30 Sep 2020 12:59 p.m. PST |
Thanks!. Amicalement Armand
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Cuprum2 | 01 Oct 2020 7:46 p.m. PST |
Today the President of Armenia stated that due to the fact that 4 Azerbaijani drones crossed the border of Armenia, the S-300 was involved and 3 drones were destroyed. |
arealdeadone | 01 Oct 2020 9:57 p.m. PST |
I saw the same news yet they were claiming all 4 drones destroyed. Note the Azerbaijanis claim a S300 system destroyed yesterday! Both sides have ratcheted up claims to astronomic levels though there is some interesting footage out there of drone strikes on both sides.
The S300 would struggle to detect a drone let alone shoot it down. It's main purpose is high altitude shoot downs Drone fly relatively low and slow and generally below effective S300 employment range. They are often extremely small. At lower altitudes the S300 is meant to be protected by other shorter range systems such as Buk, Pantsir etc. Combined these create a layered defence system.
Thus if the shootdowns did occur, I suspect the shooter was an older 9K33 Osa or Buk M1/2 |
Barin1 | 02 Oct 2020 4:27 a.m. PST |
There's a lot of contradicting claims from both sides, but several important developments are easier to confirm. - Syrian fighters presence in the zone of conflict – confirmed by many sources, also declared in Makron's statement - Israel is shipping a lot of hightech weaponry to Azerbaijan, Armenia recalled its ambassador from the country. There's a report that Israel just shipped their S 300 killer system with suicide drones to the zone of conflict. -Saudi Arabia imposed sanctions on all Turkish goods. - Ukraine announced its support for Azerbaijan Unconfirmed – Azerbaijan shelled Iranian territory, Iran moving tanks to Azerbaijan border. - Azerbaijan shot some missiles at Russian planes at Gumry base. (I don't think it is true, but some stupid mistakes happen) Anyway there's a video with missiles destroyed over Armenian capital link link - Azerbaijan shelling cities in Nagorny Karbakh - Armenia is shooting tactical missiles at the enemy - Armenia threatens to strike ar piping infrastructure while Azerbaijan threatens to attack Armenian NPP. Don't think anybody in the region will be happy…. - Russian Caspian fleet moves closer to the zone of conflict Officla claims are becoming less outrageous. Armenians listed today: 830 soldiers, 39 armored cars/tanks, 4 planes (I guess it includes two unmanned AN-2), 3 helicopters and 17 drones Axerbaijan still claiming as today: - up to 200 armored units, 228 artillery/mortar pieces, 6 command centers, over 110 cars and S-300. Interesting that there were videos showing destruction of several SAMs several days ago, so I wonder if it was something filmed before the conflict. -N.Karabkh authorities confirmed 158 soldiers KIA from the beginning of the conflict |