6mmACW | 01 Sep 2020 6:34 a.m. PST |
Little Wars TV interviewed a bunch of hobby thought leaders for this video, asking them all whether the historical tabletop hobby is growing or in decline and what barriers to entry they see for attracting new players. There are a wide range of opinions offered among those interviewed, ranging from doom and gloom to great optimism (and everything in between). Also, a bit of hard data from five years of the Great Wargaming Survey helps shed some light on the ancedotal evidence and opinions. YouTube link |
D6 Junkie | 01 Sep 2020 6:52 a.m. PST |
In our area Flames of War has been the gateway to bringing 40k players into historical gaming. |
Green Tiger | 01 Sep 2020 7:11 a.m. PST |
Personally I am not bothered – I am not giving up – my opponents aren't giving up (I mostly play solo anyway)- I have enough troops to last me my lifetime – most people think I'm weird anyway… |
John the OFM | 01 Sep 2020 7:31 a.m. PST |
Yes. Historical miniature wargaming has been in a steep decline since I started in 1975. |
ChrisBrantley | 01 Sep 2020 7:47 a.m. PST |
Getting more good looking and engaging (i.e. not rules heavy, but fun to play) historical games on the tables of the local gaming shops that were (pre-COVID) filled with card, board, WH and D&D5E gamers is the key to recruiting the hobby I think. |
Bashytubits | 01 Sep 2020 8:10 a.m. PST |
I don't think so, there are more things available than ever before. This would not be so if there weren't a market for it. |
6mmACW | 01 Sep 2020 8:41 a.m. PST |
Bashy--this is an interesting argument and one that Henry Hyde (among others) make in the video. "More products and companies than ever means the hobby is growing." That may be true, but I'm not convinced it means the player base is larger. I think that growth on the product side is 100% attributable to the vastly lowered barrier to entry for starting a hobby business in your garage. Print on demand and digital PDF sales are easier than ever--anyone can do it. Kickstarter and crowd funding has removed financial barriers to get started. And 3D printing and cheap manufacturing options means the cost to create new products is at an all time low. So while I think it's GREAT that we have so many new choices opening up, I don't know that it correlates to high demand. |
martin goddard | 01 Sep 2020 9:58 a.m. PST |
From my viewing, I believe historical battle games are decreasing but skirmish games increasing. No judgement, just observation. At shops and clubs more folks i see are playing skirmishes using historical figures. Many players of historical battles probably play at home with a chosen friend(s) or at shows where space and time is available? I suspect that wargaming has attracted a lot of players by way of skirmish gaming. Many of these players would be lost to the hobby if there were only historical battles available. In conclusion. More gamers playing figure games but fewer playing historical battles. martin
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Augustus | 01 Sep 2020 10:31 a.m. PST |
The days of new people investing in massive army games are over, I think, unless the vehicle in is really fast or somehow easy to store. |
aegiscg47 | 01 Sep 2020 11:07 a.m. PST |
6mmACW's comments are pretty accurate as it relates to the number of products coming out. There are gamers still investing in massive armies and if you look through many of the Facebook group pages you'll see quite a few large battles. However, their numbers are dwarfed by the rise of skirmish gaming where you only need a limited number of figures and/or terrain. What's happened is that there is just much, much, much more in terms of figures, rules, terrain, etc., available than ever before. Finding another gamer(s) that plays the same thing you do is definitely a challenge these days. On top of all that games and rules are coming out so fast and so often that it's creating a problem all its own, namely gamers who are buying Kickstarter games, boxed sets, mounds of figs, etc., that sit on their shelves never to be opened or played with. This has always been a part of the hobby, but it's risen to unforeseen levels these days. Gamers are literally drowning in games with no end in sight. |
GildasFacit | 01 Sep 2020 11:38 a.m. PST |
" The days of new people investing in massive army games are over " Rubbish. There have been countless large scale rulesets that have come out over the past 10 years and are still being played. Granted many are sold for use with existing armies but there is adequate evidence on forums and blogs that people are building large armies – and that may well be only the tip of an iceberg. That survey should have asked manufacturers who sell 6mm, 10mm & 15mm armies how their sales are going and if they are selling more large orders than before. They didn't, they asked 'faces' and companies specialising in skirmish games – what a surprise that they got a skewed response. Skirmish games have certainly become more popular but one aspect of the 'greying' of the hobby is that us grognards have more time on our hands and get to play more so the light relief of a smaller game makes a pleasant change. I really don't give a damn what other people do or think but I do wish they'd stop trying to overthink this hobby and start trying to do something more positive (like take up golf). |
torokchar | 01 Sep 2020 11:57 a.m. PST |
Not in Texas – the Lone Star Historical Miniatures (LSHM) group just added our 800th member this past month.
There has been a steady increase in gaming across the state (all forms of gaming to include historical). If you live in Texas join our group. All historical games and gaming is popular, the two that we have seen a big increase in are Bolt Action and SAGA play.
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Tgerritsen | 01 Sep 2020 12:14 p.m. PST |
Suprise! Anecdotal responses are… anecdotal. Is there widescale hard data to share from retailers on actual sales? Or lists of games compiled from key conventions from year to year that we can review? The Great Wargames Survey is an interesting starting point, but the data it is based on, and how consistent it is from year to year would be interesting to explore. Convention attendance (excluding 2020) but reviewing historical games played at general game conventions would need to be included. There's an opportunity for data mining here, but the cost and time consumption isn't going to be budget friendly. I find the thought that skirmish gaming is inherently ahistorical at best odd. Many of the skirmishes I play and have played at conventions are based on real battles, and researched just as much as for larger battles. Unless you mean the rise of skirmish tournament gaming, which is usually ahistorical. However, not all skirmish games are played in a tournament fashion. I'd like to hear more on why that assumption is made. To me it is just historical wargaming at a tighter level of focus.
I've heard that historical wargaming is in decline for almost twenty years now, but never have trouble finding good games at conventions, and have a wider array of choices than ever. What does decline really mean? It's always been a hobby dominated by older guys (even when I was quite a younger guy). Are we really dying out? Or are new players getting involved (but with different focus and interests than the generations they are replacing?) If the decline is real, when will it have real impact? In ten years, twenty, thirty? Next year? Or is this just the general tut tutting I've heard since I was young that there just aren't enough youth joining the hobby? I'm all for drawing more players, but I have to wonder how much of this is real and how much assumed without real data, properly and consistently gathered to examine. I would argue that Little Wars making videos (and frankly more gamers making videos) is a great way to get more eyeballs on historical wargaming and playing historical games. So bravo to Little Wars for making videos. |
robert piepenbrink | 01 Sep 2020 1:15 p.m. PST |
Hmm. Surely it would have been possible to say how many of the Great Wargaming Survey's respondents each year played historical miniatures games? Total and as a percentage? And has this changed over time? I notice this was not done. If you want a guess, historicals are about flat as a percentage of miniatures gaming, and mass battle historicals are declining, especially the "horse & musket" periods--or, as my son calls them, "boring linear warfare." But that IS a guess. Facts would involve the GWS and possibly convention programs. |
Jcfrog | 01 Sep 2020 1:27 p.m. PST |
Purely historical games are fading out as it is something that needs white middle class, at least moderatly educated men, with a bit of interest and knowledge of history (and more than 3 hours attention span), and that species is dying. That you still get mostly skirmish with somewhat historical minis which overall is often just another fantasy game in different costume, might still get newish folk to replace the older generation for something new, remains to be seen. Ask sellers like the Old glories to see how their sales are.. this would be pretty significant. And so what, après moi le déluge said Louis Xvth… |
raylev3 | 01 Sep 2020 3:32 p.m. PST |
This discussion and argument has been coming up every few years since I started historical wargaming in the 1970s. As always, the results are always based on opinion and anecdotes because of the lack of hard data. I think the WSS annual survey is a step in the right direction, and it's better than a lot of anecdotal evidence, but, if you know anything about polling, it is a little flawed….but I participate and read the results every year because the more data the better. |
Russ Lockwood | 01 Sep 2020 4:03 p.m. PST |
Interesting viewpoints. One of the folks noted that the main 'problem' was the time needed to create the elements that make up a game (painting miniatures, etc), which for youngsters who can pop on an online website or fire up the Xbox, would seem like an eternity. That said, I've read about successful HMGS efforts to engage teachers and students with introductory wargaming. This sort of mentoring may at least open the door to reducing the graying of the hobby back to salt and peppering of the hobby. |
Bashytubits | 01 Sep 2020 5:14 p.m. PST |
My argument is not that the player base is large, as in many other things it is more nuanced than that. There is some fluidity as peoples income fluctuate, have families, lose interest, gain interest. If it were really in decline there would be a lot less product available. In the current cultural climate history has been politicized to extremes and tends to steer younger folk into different pursuits. But anyone who paints their mini's with care and presents a decent table will get some interest from passerby's from the sheer spectacle. The thing that sucked me into historical wargaming was my fascination of Rome and Greece and playing ancients sealed the deal. We live in a capitalist society and demand drives the marketplace in different degrees, so when I see so much stuff readily available I really have a hard time thinking historical gaming is down for the count. The pandemic and political correctness have definitely kneecapped it for the moment though. |
Augustus | 01 Sep 2020 5:23 p.m. PST |
Then, if large army games are being played, where are they? I don't care about "The Guy You Always See" who is now building another massive army for Napoleonics. That is one guy. That is not an industry. He doesn't count as he already exists in the niche. A thriving gaming group does equate the larger picture either. What? Why? Because these already exist. How many groups are being created? To 15 years ago? To 30 years ago? Do you see the same people? If so, those do not count as new people. I am talking about Little Johnny and his Mum going to the store and buying a new American Civil War army…I don't even know of any game store that still stocks any historical. Much less buying an army of anything. So, if we want to say it is not in decline, then we must be able to say we see new groups being created, new armies are being purchased by new people (as old people buying new are not turnover) and ever rising numbers of attendance to events.
New rules are meaningless if old people are buying. New games are meaningless, again, if the same people are buying – this often why we see many topics like, "I have too many games to play in my closet" well, yeah, because you simply buy too much, but this doesnt equal a thriving hobby. Skew the numbers any direction, but if you count people already active that is not thriving, that is stagnation. Though it is true, stagnation is not decline either. It is however a precursor to decline as those stagnated do not refresh. |
Augustus | 01 Sep 2020 5:26 p.m. PST |
Also not sure why the font is changing in size. |
robert piepenbrink | 01 Sep 2020 6:25 p.m. PST |
Other than the relentless urge to have people talking on film, I can't make sense of the link's approach. Sam Mustafa rightly points out that right now the hot new rule designers are often not Americans. True, but not really on point. The creator of ESR talks about the terrible burden of having to conduct research, and I believe he sells books meant to spare the beginner that effort. But again, this really doesn't tell us anything about how many people are playing historical miniatures. Discussion of sales and new products are equally irrelevant if you can't tell new customers from old. And Augustus, I couldn't walk into a store and buy a historical army at any time in my life--except, briefly, DBA forces c. 1990. Usually someone has a few boxes or blister packs and can order more. No different now than it ever has been. Everyone has an opinion. Serious discussion would require actual pertinent numbers. |
Jcfrog | 02 Sep 2020 1:45 a.m. PST |
Yes, if the leading big supplier would give them. As for the rest of trends, sales are the key, esp sales to newish customers. |
Ed Mohrmann | 02 Sep 2020 5:37 a.m. PST |
Decline ? Well, my creaky knees won't allow floor gaming anymore, but other than that, no – at least from my own unimportant personal perspective. As to the general state of histmini gaming, I cannot say and won't venture an ignorant opinion. |
rjones69 | 02 Sep 2020 5:48 a.m. PST |
Purely historical games are fading out as it is something that needs white middle class, at least moderatly educated men, with a bit of interest and knowledge of history (and more than 3 hours attention span) Being middle class (in order to afford miniatures, travel to conventions, etc.), at least moderately educated (to have the requisite knowledge of history), and possessing a reasonable attention span (in order to focus on a game) all make sense, but why would players or game designers need to be white or male? |
rampantlion | 02 Sep 2020 7:04 a.m. PST |
I have several thoughts here. As for the "going to the store to buy an ACW army", many of these purchases are done on line and a little at a time in some cases. I have seen more skirmish rules it feels like lately. As for large battle rules, I still see quite a few, but they seem to be changing to games that can be finished in a few hours rather than some of the rules that took many hours to finish a game. I do think that young people have a lot of choices that maybe we didn't have as kids. I played sports but always loved toy soldiers, but I cannot say that I might not be a video gamer if I was exposed to that as a young person. I still like to think that I would have collected and painted some toy soldiers even if I grew up in this current age, but I cannot say for sure. |
Yesthatphil | 02 Sep 2020 8:32 a.m. PST |
No … not in decline at all from what I see. Critics of the historical game have been trying to convince everyone else that it is in decline for almost as long as I have been a wargamer (if there was any truth in the deliberate misinformation, it would have passed away years ago) … Covid-19 apart, people need to get out more: the internet is a very poor source of information on what's really going on. Have fun! Phil |
Jcfrog | 02 Sep 2020 12:41 p.m. PST |
Rjones… they don't need you be white or male. It is afaik a fact of life that the vast majority of us are, independant of the actual population spread nearby. A pity but my guess is it linked to our education, tradition, sort of empathy with these chaps from the past, the guy (and then the young girl!) from Ethiopia will hardly have. Look at how very few of us know much and even less play anything from the vast Chinese history, even ancients. As education nowadays skips the military history, certainly does not glorify anyone much from our past when they don't bash it, how these, assuming they would want to " assimilate" and thus be potential customers, could connect with say Waterloo. Many of us above 50 had grand dads who went to war, some known ancestors who had been here and there, we grew up with films and tv shows about ww2 with vets… All lost to the younger ones. It is a whole. |
Rudysnelson | 02 Sep 2020 1:59 p.m. PST |
A decline yes but dying or a steep decline no. People tend to shift in their preferences. A decline due to. Death is natural. I have been playing since the 1960s and a store owner and seller at conventions since 1983. The vast majority of my gaming whether board or miniatures has always been historical. Currently my mini collection has been drastically reduced but my game collection has expanded dramatically after my sell off in 1995. I have heard all the death kneels. We have lost players to computer gaming, then video gaming, GW began to capture the youth market in 1985 which was going to kill historical. But I have also lost customers to a loss of interest. Some began shooting and reloads, others began more traditional hobbies and still others got married to a wargames hating wife. So yes to losses but no to dying. |
JanissaryAga | 02 Sep 2020 4:22 p.m. PST |
Historicals seem to fly under the radar I think because unlike GW or the other fantasy systems (Flames of War and Bolt Action being the exceptions) they typically aren't something you can buy totally off the shelf. Maybe that's "gatekeeping" because it requires more effort, but keeping to some kind of standard in a hobby is important. Also to the point that younger people are disinterested in history, that simply isn't the case. Military history isn't taught in American schools, yes (which is a shame) but there are tons of historical military video games and YouTube pages discussing military history that have a wide audience in terms of age. |
Flashman14 | 04 Sep 2020 6:10 a.m. PST |
Declining in North America, flat in the rest of the English speaking world is my guess based on my sifting of the anecdotes. |
Jcfrog | 04 Sep 2020 9:59 a.m. PST |
compared to 25+ years ago we have a vastly more grandiose offer of subjects, rules, books etc plus that endless deep internet thing. It might as I see here, disperse the guys each having his little way, rule, subjects with his pals. Maybe less in the Uk as they have more the club thing. |
companycmd | 23 Sep 2020 2:35 a.m. PST |
" hobby thought leaders " in my view, I can think of MANY other people many on this track and in these forums who should have been contacted FIRST for that video, including myself. |
20thmaine | 24 Sep 2020 2:43 a.m. PST |
Hmm…when I started wargaming there was one generally available magazine supporting the hobby – Battle for Wargamers (Model Soldier was also pretty good for games but it wasn't all wargaming). Now there are three. That suggests greater advertising revenue to support them, and also suggests a growing hobby not a shrinking one. My first Salute was at Kensington Town Hall. Then it moved to Olympia, but outgrew that, and moved to Excel. OK – Salute is not just historical miniature gaming: but there's a heck of a lot of stuff on display at Excel that is historical, more than ever. In decline? Not so much. |