"Are We Facing A Global Depression?" Topic

"Economists increasingly warn that Washington's current efforts won't be enough to fight a downturn approaching the devastation seen eight decades ago.

Forecasts of doom for the American economy are quickly turning from gray to pitch black.

As Congress haggles over a multitrillion-dollar coronavirus rescue package, analysts are warning the U.S. could face a prolonged depression rather than the kind of short recession and swift bounce back that President Donald Trump and his top aides expect. And they're raising questions about whether current government efforts to cushion the economy from the damage will be anywhere near enough…"
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Hope for the best, expect and prepare for the worst….

Imho…I am preparing for a hard time … resigned that this pandemic will last into next year …Pandemics in the past always took a minimum of a year to burn themselves out, and I do not see this current pandemic as an exception to that rule…

Amicalement
Armand

I think you are too pessimistic. In a bad flu year, 50,000 Americans die, and we don't go through this rigamarole. I understand this strain is more infectious and has potential to stress our health systems. But, we are making progress. For most who get infected (80%, I think), it's fairly mild.

I hope we don't go overboard and try to stay hunkered down with businesses closed for too long. Except where it makes sense, such as dense urban centers like NYC and LA.

We need to get back to work, but still practice good infection measures (such as no handshaking, washing hands, max telework and covering coughs) And for God's sake, if people feel sick, stay at home and don't try to be Iron Man---all they do is infect everyone else!

In my opinion, every country needs to take care of the economic condition. No global concern for other countries.

Yes but it should be short

Yes, unless they start letting people go to work.

Many businesses that were already unstable will go under, which is sad to see.

The virus won't do in the economy, it'll be the cure that causes the problem. Businesses shut down, but they still have to cover rent and at least some payroll if they want to reopen later. The "stimulus" package may help individuals a little, but probably won't do much for businesses. All of that will lead to heavy borrowing or printing money. Which will lead to inflation. Throw in the folks/businesses that default on payments and businesses that would have been viable start crashing.

Then the government starts meddling to fix that problem and it just gets worse. It's the uncertainty that causes fear and fear causes bad decisions.

What people do when they didn't received weekly check payment because business are shut down?…

Amicalement
Armand

2020 Is The Year That Global Markets Experienced The Most Destructive Sell-Off Since The Great Depression

"LONDON (Reuters) – How much damage has the coronavirus and the oil price collapse inflicted on global financial markets this year? Put simply, it has probably been the most destructive sell-off since the Great Depression.

The numbers have been staggering. $15 USD trillion has been wiped of world stock markets .MIWD00000PUS, oil has slumped 60% as Saudi Arabia and Russia have started a price war and emerging markets like Brazil, Mexico and South Africa have seen their currencies plummet more than 20%.

Volatility and corporate borrowing market stress has spiked on worries that whole sectors could go bust, airlines .dMIWO0AL00PUS have had half their value vaporized, while cratering economies risk a new wave of government debt crises…"
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Amicalement
Armand

Didn't stop the planet on any of the 100 other pandemics, how did we start now?

I think within a year or so the US stock market will be back to where it was and climbing …

@14Bore
Didn't stop the planet on any of the 100 other pandemics, how did we start now?

Ding ding ding ding ding!!! give that man a seegar!!!! Finally, finally someone else has gotten it. I've lived through 10 or 12 global pandemics, 30-40 blizzards, half a dozen tornados, 5 or 6 Catastrophic Man-Caused Global Climate Change events, the arctic ozone hole, the cataclysmic Y2K debacle, AND the death of Elvis! Yet 67 years and 6 months later here I am, and through all those trials, tribulations, disasters, and catastrophes have never seen any kind of mass quarantines, mass closings of schools, sporting events, The Olympic Games, and other public venues, or panic buying of TOILET PAPER!!

UNTIL NOW….why do you suppose that is?? hmmmm?

How are these posts aging?

What people do when they didn't received weekly check payment because business are shut down?

In general, there was less rapid economic growth.

Businesses and people had to have a more robust contingency plans and would accept less risk. This resulted in more internal capitalization and less externalization and expansion. More assets static … fewer flowing.

Never thought I'd find myself agreeing with Bill Maher, but he was right when he termed all this furor, "Panic Porn" even here on TMP everyone can't stop talking about it.

Refer to 14Bore's comment and my reply.

Just today I hear that there's some kind of a proposal for a "phone App" which allows listing of everyone that everyone has been in contact with (as long as they voluntarily -for now – "download" this "App"). The phrase I've heard several times now is something about the exchange of some privacy for some safety. There wasn't such eagerness for "tracing" here until now (among the Powers That Be, I mean).

By the way, sure, things have continued for the planet after all these other pandemics. Not much good thinking about the continuation of the planet, with or without Humanity, if at present you're able to include yourself in all those "at risk" or "especially vulnerable groups". Wonder if some Chinese company will now supply this technology as one response to one more disease coming from that direction.

Today … we are much more prepared and have much higher tech now that in 1918 or 1929 …

But companies today operate off much shorter term strategies. Somewhat related to what etotheipi said, I think. Everything is about price in a super competetive globalised world. So margins are smaller than ever and if a company can't operate for a week they can go bust.

Hopefully those in charge have studied history and did their homework.

Global depression I have no idea, but know it is self inflicted if it is.

Well, now the Chinese know how to blow up the world without firing a shot or launching a single missile.

(smile)

Amicalement
Armand

Hopefully those in charge have studied history and did their homework.

C'mon Legion, you know perfectly well that they don't teach real history anymore

Yeah that's true … And today with the net, there is a lot of history out there. But most don't even try …

"Hopefully those in charge have studied history and did their homework."

We are so screwed

"Hopefully those in charge have studied history and did their homework."

We are so screwed

So true!

Yep … just turn on the daily news feeds …

I always feel a lot better when the "experts" make a prediction of gloom and doom, they're normally wrong. But they seem to get a lot more air time on freak TV shows designed to keep Useful Idiots tuned in so they can be mind f----- by the next commercial.

Wolfhag

Gotta agree with Wolfhag
I always enjoy looking at the "polls" unlike the TMP polls the news and political polls are "always" wrong, they've been consistently wrong for years.
The local chapter of AA (Alcoholics Anonymous) has a drinking game, they take a shot every time the "polls" get it right….been dry as a bone now for over 4 years.

There must be a very low threshold for what is called an "expert" today ! And an "expert" opinion usually has bias in between the lines …