"After Claiming That 500,000 Will Die In The U.K. ..." Topic

….Because Of Covid-19, Researchers At Imperial College London Now Expect 20,000 Deaths, Less Than The 29,000 Who Die From The Flu Each Year

"If no measures had been taken to combat the spread of the novel coronavirus, 40 million people could have died, a new UK study finds.

Researchers at Imperial College London made the findings based on analysis which estimated the potential scale of the pandemic across the world.

But with mitigation strategies such as protecting the elderly and social distancing, the death toll could by anywhere from 50 percent to 95 percent, saving 38 million people…"

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This is disturbing. The researchers at the Imperial College of London were the first to warn that a disaster was coming, and many political leaders, governments, and the media listened to them and publicized their conclusions… and now they are admitting that their computer models were wrong, and are justifying this mistake and the panic that they caused by saying that the situation on the ground has changed…?!!?

Amicalement
Armand

Armand, you thought they were somehow different from politicians and economists? I'm pretty sure someone in Periclean Athens was claiming credit for averting disasters which were never really going to happen. It's the "book" response when your catastrophe fails to arrive on schedule. This is why you never go to a single analyst for such things.

Note that they still can't get the math right. Look at the US numbers. Given current mortality figures, we could have done absolutely nothing, every living US citizen could have been infected, and we still couldn't reach their projected death toll.

I am quite glad that Imperial may have over-egged the numbers. After all, it is pretty undeniable that 70-ish million, at an infection rate of 60% before herd immunity is reached, with a mortality rate of maybe a little over 1% is (in fairly round numbers) 500,000.

Sorry, I did that in my head. Did Imperial have a computer?

At least the thought of a potential death toll close to WW2 mortality for the UK prompted some preventive action.

Projections are always subject to change. No real surprise there.

"Researchers at Imperial College London made the findings based on analysis which estimated the potential scale of the pandemic across the world."

And they can also pick winning Lotto numbers for you… ;-)

Am I missing something?
With respect, I don't think you've understood the article. They predicted numbers with no mitigating strategies take. They've revised the numbers based upon actions taken.
No mistake, no wrong computer model. Two values based upon two circumstances – one with no action, one with action taken.

The first predictions were also calculated on the high initial takes on mortality, Silurian. Those have dropped drastically and are still dropping. Technically, there's no shame as an analyst in saying "we gave a best guess based on the information we had, and now we have better information" but customers don't take well to hearing that--and in fairness, it's also the analyst's default excuse when he's obviously wrong.

The numbers still look horrendous.

Give it two weeks both in Europe and the USA, and people will be very quiet and sober about this.

Especially when they realise its not just the old or infirm dying.

I find it extremely implausible that even with no mitigation strategy at all, anywhere near 40 MILLION people from just the UK would have died, since that's about 60% of their entire population.

Someone has clearly misplaced a decimal point, or is just really using hyperbolic conjecture to scare people.

One: Its the Daily Mail & they are pushing click-bait. Restricted access if you don't let them swamp you with ads.

Two: That's 40 million if NO measures are taken at all, just let them die, pretty much like the Bubonic plague in the 1300's. Once someone takes some measures that drops 95% of deaths (or infections, story is not clear).

From what I remember from the original report, the 40 million deaths were worldwide not just UK.

The 500000 UK deaths was a worst-case scenario if NOTHING was done to mitigate the disease and the health service was swamped with many thousands of extra patients.

UK tabloid newspapers like the Daily Mail are not particularly reliable…

Robert P,

I don't recall them mentioning the fact they were using incomplete, early information when they predicted the end of the world!

At an estimated rate of 1 person infecting 2.5 people, without any intervention, the number of infections over 21 ‘generations' (i.e. infectious people infecting others) is 91 million.

By changing the estimated rate to 1:2, the number of infections over that same number of ‘generations' is just over 1 million. By changing the rate to 1:1.5, the number of infections drops to 3,325. This is why lockdowns help to reduce the infection rate.

The maths is not difficult to do using a spreadsheet. The UK was late imposing its lockdown, but it does seem to be moving from the 1:2.5 to the 1:2 rate and lower. Only time will tell if they can keep the death rate per infection low.

"Especially when they realize its not just the old or infirm dying."

Hey! I'm an old and infirm!!

This wouldn't be the first time "estimates" were wrong when it comes to pandemics. Remember HIV, SARS and Ebola … ?

We were Doomed … well it turns out we were not … So …

British fatalities from the novel coronavirus are slightly over a thousand, although that will probably double over the next week or so.

50,000 extra people died from acute respiratory conditions caused by seasonal viruses last year in the UK. Basically we have a large percentage of old people in our population (1 in 5 is over retirement age), pretty much all the deaths are of the old or seriously ill. Doesn't stop the media hype though.

"This wouldn't be the first time "estimates" were wrong when it comes to pandemics. Remember HIV, SARS and Ebola … ?"

I can't remember: which network was pushing the idea that Ebola was going to kill everyone in the United States and that we had to stop all travel into the country?

I have this vague recollection of some minor radio host who claimed that the president at the time was intentionally letting Ebola spread to the United States because he wanted Americans to die and to weaken the country. Not anyone who was a household name was it?

Fortunately, everyone who was pushing disinformation during the Ebola outbreak has learned their lessons and has been careful to report only completely science-based information.

"I find it extremely implausible that even with no mitigation strategy at all, anywhere near 40 MILLION people from just the UK would have died"

Thresher01, excellent job reading the title of the post!

"After Claiming That 500,000 Will Die In The U.K. …"

Lockdowns slow inflection spread. That's a plus only to the degree we use the time to find effective treatments or preventatives, and to the degree hospitalizing the victims helps them survive. (They're really good at some things. But like most of us, hospitals have been known to overestimate their own utility. Think of all the supervisors you've had who thought their presence helped.)

But someone at Oxford challenged the Imperial figures very quickly, largely based on the survival rate. As we have more time and equipment, we're finding more and more people who had the virus and never recognized it: they had a "bug" and might or might not have taken some time off from work. That makes a huge difference in lethality estimates.

And sober, cautious estimates will not get you a spot on the evening news.

So… Coronavirus is not so danger as they said?….

Amicalement
Armand

@armand:

During infection you can get an above 40-degree celsius fever – this can destroy your internal organs (kidneys, liver, etc). There is no drug cure for this fever yet.

Once infected you can develop viral pneumonia(*). There is no drug cure for this pneumonia yet.

Your own body's immune system will shred your lung tissue in order to destroy the infected cells – the lungs will then fill up with fluid and dead cells – there will be no more oxygen transfer. An ICU ventilator is required to provide oxygen transfer.

Of course, if you are young, fit and healthy, with no underlying health issues then you'll probably shrug the virus off as a mild illness – good for you.

If you are middle-aged, or older, and have pre-existing health conditions – such as hypertension (high blood pressure), diabetes, COPD, and others – then the fever might get you or the pneumonia.

Other risk factors – which include all age groups – MAY(++) include – being male, smoking, vaping, having A-Rhesus-positive blood type, living in a polluted atmosphere, being undernourished, etc, etc.

So the best thing to do – at least until they find some cures or therapies – is not get it. Wash hands, practice social distancing, shun crowds, stay away from idiots. Keep entertained on TMP.

(*) Not the upper lobes typical for viral infections – all the way down to the lower lobes.

(++) per the wisdom of the interweb

I think the truth is that is you make it into old age, you are living on borrowed time, you are vastly more at risk of dying from sepsis, flu or pneumonia. This is also the case if you are ill or recovering from a serious illness.

In the UK it should be emphasised that we effectively allowed our national health service to be run into the ground, with reduced budgets and less resources. It cannot cope with large increases in illness, and is creaking at the seams at the best of times due the need to treat millions and millions of elderly people.

None of this is new and happens every year, although the global scale of this particular virus is less frequent.

No. This is personal.

I have pre-existing health conditions, age, sex, and blood-type which put me directly at risk of experiencing a sub-optimal outcome if I contract this disease.

You(*) – and others of your ilk – could kill me by infecting me with this disease – either inadvertently, or deliberately.

I reckon this'll bring forward my demise by about 15 years; my unpainted-lead mountain will not forgive me

(*) obviously not you personally – you are a TMPer after all!

emckinney, "If no measures had been taken to combat the spread of the novel coronavirus, 40 million people could have died, a new UK study finds".

It didn't specify where those deaths would come from, in the statement.

I do admit to not having read the article, since most are just a waste of time.

robert piepenbrink!

Good on you, Sir!

Oh, and why all the emphasis on "germ killing" and "sanitizers?" Covid-19 is a VIRUS, not a "germ" and can only be killed by destroying the fatty surface holding it together. Direct sunlight, artificial UV, 70% or greater concentration of alcohol, even hydrogen peroxide, temperatures above 77 degrees Fahrenheit, among others, expose the virus proper to almost immediate death.

All measures to minimize its spread are essentially sound and should continue to be observed, but it's no more the Universal Apocalypse than every other virus (so far!) to date.

We live in an Apocalyptic Age where too many people seem to see The End Times in every new and unknown development.

TVAG

Oh, and a year's supply of TP is not a preventative, either!

Thanks Stoppage!.

"….but it's no more the Universal Apocalypse than every other virus (so far!) to date…."

I don't really know what other pandemic you are comparing … but in all my life I have NEVER had to stay home without being able to do any activity outside of it. Nor have I seen such a severe and rapid contagion worldwide. Many countries (including mine) the times that there was Parvovirus or similar were seen only on TV and it happened to very distant people … Coronavirus has infected practically all countries in record time … this situation does not record antecedents in this way.

Amicalement
Armand

Nor have I seen such a severe and rapid contagion worldwide.

Nor had you ever seen the same degree of international travel as you had ever seen before in your life. Same goes for domestic flights in most of population of the world. The environment of disease communicability has steadily increased for the last 50 years.

COVID-19 survives on surfaces significantly longer than any outbreak we have seen before. This makes it much more communicable

The biggest issue is that news of the severity of the initial outbreak in Wuhan was suppressed, including to the international medical community. The response started months later than it would have.

From The Armchair General's context I think in term "Universal Apocalypse" is referring to the severity of the disease itself, not the effect. The effect of the disease is a function of the characteristics of the disease and the environment in which it is active.

Why worry so much about it, after all AOC says we only have 12 years left, maybe only 11 now.

I have never seen anything hyped to this extent previously, the reality is that this is not a very deadly virus (by comparison to other contagions), and it is not that common really (affecting perhaps 2-4% of the population.

That is not to say that measures to restrict it were unwarranted but it is nowhere near as prevalent or as deadly as widely reported.

70% or greater concentration of alcohol,

So we are up to 70% now? It was 60% about a week ago, then the other day I read the figure 65%, now you are quoting 70%. Does anyone know for sure, or should we just say 100% and nuke it to be on the safe side?

Does anyone know for sure, or should we just say 100% and nuke it to be on the safe side?

Who the hell buys 65% alcohol? 151 rum or everclear are the two common options. High test vodka is only for self decon, not inanimate objects.

and it is not that common really (affecting perhaps 2-4% of the population.

Population percentage is a function of the persistence of the disease, the communicability, and the environment. So, the environment.

I already pointed out that as long as all of us here have been alive, international air travel has been on the rise, mixing exposure networks. So, let's hit something else.

Survival of SARS or influenza on a two-day online order delivery is part of the outlier community. Survival of COVID-19 on a seven day online order is in the first standard deviation of persistence data.

it is nowhere near as prevalent or as deadly as widely reported.

I suppose that depends on where you go to get a report.

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I can't remember: which network was pushing the idea that Ebola was going to kill everyone in the United States and that we had to stop all travel into the country?

With the media, especially 24 hrs. news. They have to have something to talk about ! But I do remember that most media spent a good amount of time talking/warning about Ebola. They all seemed to running around to get interviews with the one or two nurses that got it.

I do remember having NBC Defense training, like many in the military do. When looking at the initial protective gear the Docs and Nurses were wearing when treating Ebola looked woefully inadequate to be truly effective.

Why worry so much about it, after all AOC says we only have 12 years left, maybe only 11 now.

Well hopefully she only has less than 11 years ! Not really a fan of her "work" …

According to the news today, IIRC. The max. estimates in the US is a possibility of 20,000 deaths from COVID at this time(?). But just an estimate, AFAIK … I may have misread that ?

Update … I was incorrect … Just heard on the News, estimates for US COVID deaths could reach 100,000-200,00 …

Why worry so much about it, after all AOC says we only have 12 years left, maybe only 11 now.

I believe that 12 year thing was to prevent a 1.5 C degree rise in overall global temperature at which point certain damages become irreversible. I am not an AOC fan by any means but the end of times is an exaggeration.

It appears as if the revised mortality rate based more on South Korea and such US cases as have resolved is about .6%. Way better than the 1-1.9% that had been bandied about but still puzzling compared to Germany at .4%. Either way it is about six times more lethal than the flu and the part I find scary, when it goes bad it can go bad very quickly. We heard a couple of anecdotal cases in an EMS conference call in which a young healthy person presented with clear symptoms but not sufficient to justify admission (most protocols involve most Covid-19 patients resolving at home) but by the time they got home had devolved so quickly that they were transported back and readmitted to pass within 24 hours. At the same time, we have seen multiple 90+ with other co-morbidities shrug it off albeit requiring hospitalization.

I am not an AOC fan by any means but the end of times is an exaggeration.

Hope we won't have to find out … Regardless, AOC and some of the other "freshman" members of Congress … well … yes, I'm not a fan is being kind !

Not really a fan of her "work" … wink

Work?! she has done…work?! Wow, will wonders never cease. Only time I ever see her she's flapping her gums praising the commies, and of course Bernie.

No disagreement here !

Miniature manufacturers are ready for the pandemic…(smile)

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Amicalement
Armand