"COVID-19 Fears and Wargaming" Topic

Some good points … As we see the 24 hrs. News media has to have something to talk about. And if you ask enough "experts", politicians, pundits, etc., you will get a number of opinions, beliefs, thoughts, etc. Some with skewed "intensions" based on biases, etc.

Myth: Comparing ratios where the numerators come from different populations and use different empirical collection methods and also the denominators also come from different populations and use different empirical collection methods is useful.

Did you know that you can contract Covid-19 from people who exhibit no symptoms just as easily as from those who do? And that most people don't even know they have it (they have to get tested) because it could take 5 days or more for the symptoms to manifest?

Better be safe than sorry!

I came here because I was curious if they actually went through with Cold Wars. I am amazed they did. I am also amazed by the carefree attitude shown here by some. I do hope you changed your mind by now.

Please do not get attached to the numbers flying around in the media, we can only pin point case fatality rates correctly after an outbreak is over. This is still ongoing.

If you want current numbers without hype, check out the WHO tracker for confirmed cases: link (or visit who.int and click on the dashboard link).

Look, there is no need to panic but there is also no value in downplaying this. All these countries over here in Europe going into lock down usually have had no trouble dealing with the normal flu season (which is a global phenomenon). Italy has shown that taking this lightly leads to unnecessary deaths and suffering especially in older age brackets.

Please do heed the warnings, stay at home if possible and exercise good hygiene. If you must stick around people make sure it's at least a well ventilated area.

Sending my best from one of the Corona hot spots in Germany. Hope you all stay healthy!

News just said this could last until July/August so not even Historicon is safe from the wave of cancellations.

In Ohio USA, the state want's all bars & restaurants to only serve carry out. Moved Presidential Primary to June instead of tomorrow. Many events have been cancelled. And St. Patrick's Day is tomorrow too !

The seasonal flu can kill tens off thousands, I only had the flu once I think and probably 20 years ago at that. If you want to hibernate every winter until late spring have at it.
I had fun at Cold Wars too.

Well the Governor shut down the whole state so got nothing to do but play a game I was only concerning.

What difference a few weeks made.

I would point out that Heather and the BOD made a tough call given what they knew at at time. Had HMGS blinked first the HOST would have made out $ like bandits. The show went on, as with HMGS it always has. Two weeks out and no one who was at the show is sick as far as I know.

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If anyone wants to understand why the smart politicians are taking drastic measures.

As for Cold Wars I think it was right it went ahead at that stage the average American was on the cusp of understanding and you have to deal with what you know and what some leaders were saying to down play the virus.

However some politicians with insider knowledge were down playing it but taking personal actions that traded on their inside govt knowledge and profited from it.

If the forecasts are / were right 500,000 deaths in the uk would spell the end of political career. Even some slow thinking leaders are finally seeing the long term potential downfall for them…

I would point out that Heather and the BOD made a tough call given what they knew at at time. Had HMGS blinked first the HOST would have made out $ like bandits. The show went on, as with HMGS it always has. Two weeks out and no one who was at the show is sick as far as I know.

Everything started to come to light on Wednesday night. Once the NBA shut down then this really gained traction. HMGS did make the right call for allowing Cold Wars to go on…

why the smart politicians are taking drastic measures

And it's an election year !

Dear All:
This is Frank from MiniWarfare. I'm in China and we are quite good.
Our children are about to go back to school in 2 weeks. Situation here is almost in control though it's still not good in Wuhan.

I'd like to say, don't be too panic. It will be fine.

Frank, what do you mean by "not good"?

I've heard some not-good things secondhand about Wuhan, like:

Large numbers of people being welded into their apartment buildings and dying there.

7 million cell phones being disconnected in Wuhan (cellphone ownership being pretty much mandatory in China, due to various mandates). How many of those are because their owners are dead?

Production quotas that can't be met, and business owners leaving lights and machinery operating to keep their power consumption up so the local govt officials don't investigate them too closely (not producing much for lack of workers/materials).

It would be interesting to hear about those from someone in China. :)

8th day after Cold Wars and still no sign of illness.

@billclo

I said "not good in wuhan", means Wuhan still has more people infected than any other city.

let me answer item by item. (where did you get these infomation? so silly)

1.Large numbers of people being welded into their apartment buildings and dying there.
Excuse me?! Never heard of that. Large number, how large? welded in apartment? Have you even seen how apartments look like in China? How can they be welded?

2.7 million cell phones…
I have friends and relatives in wuhan, luckly they are not infected. They still using their internet or phone, nothing wrong.
"Owner dead", Come on… By the end of 2019, the registered population was 9.0835 million and the floating population 5.103 million. Do you think 7 million, over half of the city people, are dead?

3.Production quotas that can't be met, and business owners leaving lights and machinery operating to keep their power consumption up so the local govt officials don't investigate them too closely (not producing much for lack of workers/materials).
:) I can see that you know nothing about wuhan and nowadays China. Leaving lights on…dude, they are not going back to work yet! All business are temporarily closed, nobody go to work, that's a national order. So how can Chinese government command you not to work and investigate you at the same time?

Dear sir, I know some media in some country prefer to make stories of China. Some politicians feel like to attack us just because China is a socialist country.

In your mind China must be a North Korea like living hell. When you heard of these stories, please think of them for a few seconds, go to internet to view some real information. Or ask people who are living or lived in China or maybe you can come and visit one day. You will change your mind then.

Thank you!
Frank

Frank, don't take it personally or as an attack on your country. Some of these guys believe some pretty crazy stuff about their country too. :-)

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Lots of crazy people buying toothpaste because this chap gets airtime…

The crazy world we live in…

BTW not just an American thing…

In the UK a man with dementia has been tricked out of £400.00 GBP by someone saying they will keep them safe and get their shopping for them. Some nasty people out there in EVERY country preying on the old, gullible and mentally ill…

At least with WWW we can attempt to better inform those who want to be informed.

Billco, Frank is in China and I have spent a lot of time in China.

Frank's comments are in line with my friends in China and my personal experiences in China.

The Chinese government definitely does many things that we in the US might consider to be outrageous, but nothing like what you are describing is happening in China related to this virus.

Also, this virus is not a military weapon created by the US or Chinese military.

It is a virus that comes from a large amount of livestock in close proximity to a large amount of people.

There is a enough panic burning through the world it is not helpful to fuel it here.

When you hear wild rumors, take a minute to do some actual research.

@Ploogak
All right I know, and I didn't say billclo is attacking me.
But indeed, every time I mentioned China, there always be people start saying something like "Communism has rotted""China will collapse". Even here in TMP. Once I noticed other people some chinese bootlegs are pirating 4Ground laser cut and then some one came out and saying things.
I mean come on, I'm a normal player and Law-abiding manufacturer, I didn't do anything wrong. Don't make me feel guilty just for I was born in China. However, China is not that like what they said.

@Dervel
and thank you too!

Hope all the people in the world can over conquer this virus, it will be all fine.

Frank thanks for posting we are all people we share the same core DNA we are all in this together as we only have one planet…

So thanks for offering insight that some folk need.

Let's hope we can defeat this virus and get back to gaming around a table with other people..

Rolling dice and having a laugh is what I am looking forward to…

A lot of posts on the first couple pages of this thread sure haven't aged well.

I think lots of comments will age badly, just woken up to see someone saying America will be open for business by Easter…

;)

The Excel Exhibition Centre where Salute was due to be held is being turned into a temporary hospital in the UK.

We are being told it will be a 3 month lock down and I can't see HCon happening but fingers crossed that it does go ahead.

I can't see HCon happening but fingers crossed that it does go ahead.

I too hope Hcon happens, because if its still that bad 3 1/2 months from now that everyone is still self isolating I can't imagine how high the body count will be and how much economic damage there is.

…….. just woken up to see someone saying America will be open for business by Easter…

Sadly, I'm doubtful. Been following this site:

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I remember when the US was in 20th or so position, way down the line for confirmed cases. Now it's number three, behind Italy and China.

Count me amongst those that worry Historicon won't happen. And in the big scheme of things, that is only a small inconvenience.

Can someone explain to me why the media keep reporting infections and deaths as totals by country without regard to population? (Other than laziness, of course.)

You'd think from the reporting the virus was targeting large countries and ignoring small ones.

I'd just like to see 3 minutes of the local weather coverage on the TV, but it's brushed aside by media panicmongering and every two-bit local politician pushing their way in front of a camera to display their virtue signalling… <rolls eyes>

Trying to keep politics put of it, but politics have become it.

Can someone explain to me why the media keep reporting infections and deaths as totals by country without regard to population?

If you mean the link I provided, it's not "the media". It's from John Hopkins. If you need to know the confirmed cases per capital or per 1000 people you can easily do the math yourself.

You'd think from the reporting the virus was targeting large countries and ignoring small ones.

Well my country, Canada, and the US were neck and neck at the beginning of the pandemic. Canada had a 10th of the confirmed cases, which makes sense as we have roughly a 10th of the population. In the last week, both countries had a geometric increase In confirmed cases, but the US rate is now twice as large as ours.

The death rate per capita has also become twice as much in the US compared to Canada (737 vs 27 total deaths today respectively)

Thanks, Bowman. It wasn't your link or Johns Hopkins I was thinking of, so much as the continual headlines in my news aggregators. "Country X now has Y many cases! Now 2nd Highest in the World!" I can guarantee that the "winner" will have more than fifty million inhabitants, and discussing the situation in those terms will tell us nothing about successful or unsuccessful strategies. Per capita rates may.

Seems the difference in countries after identify the cases is up to its health care providers. Would be a good study after its over. Hearing today so far Sweden has avoided the quarantine mode and everything is open including schools.

We have out off our Tues night gaming for a few weeks :(

Someone posted a FB meme…it said "if ya can smell his fart you are not far enough apart!" That explains why our weekly wargames have ceased for the next few weeks! LOLOLOL

Hearing today so far Sweden has avoided the quarantine mode…….

And not without a backlash…….

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I have a nice room in the attached hotel for Historicon. I hope to make use of it. Hope to see everyone there……..hopefully.

This just in!

Gov't officials issue Corona virus warning: If a person wearing a HazMat suit approaches you and wants to take your temperature with a rectal thermometer, they do NOT work for the CDC

Reality check -

Most testing in the USA is for people exhibiting multiple symptoms. I believe this is the same as in most countries at the moment due to testing capacity. So the reported cases numbers will keep increasing because we are not testing everyone. Plus as new testing sites come on line, more tests are being done, and of course most of those are people exhibiting multiple symptoms. Once testing starts to happen on everyone who wants a test, then the death rate goes down as a percentage of the tested population.

The reality is we will all eventually get it. 80% of cases are mild. Some percentage of people with CV19 are asymptomatic. That is why this will be impossible to stop.

Testing everyone will eventually happen, but we are months away from that. It will be part of your normal physician visits in the future.

Treatment regimens for CV19 patients will be improved as the weeks and months progress.

A vaccine will eventually be available and it will be one of the normal vaccines that you get. We will be lucky if one is available by the end of the year.

If anyone thinks you are going to escape CV19 you are fooling yourself.
Social distancing and closures will help flatten the curve so the healthcare system can adjust to the deluge and until production capacity for PPE, ventilators, testing capacity, etc , catches up and medical understanding on best treatment becomes clearer.

Well said, Lon. Flattening the curve is all we can hope for right now…….and that turns out to be a lot.

If a person wearing a HazMat suit approaches you and wants to take your temperature with a rectal thermometer, they do NOT work for the CDC

What if it's a pretty girl? Can I say yes, then?

Another article on Sweden.

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A very different approach from the UK and as the article says only time will tell if the approach worked. A big gamble with lives and health services.

As for flattening the curve that is all we can do.

I know I have to get infected but my wife is high risk so we are locked down trying to keep it away from her until the medical systems can cope.

If we (countries) had testing in place and capacity in the hospitals we would be undertaking managed infection and those that get serious problems are supported. This is of course just not possible at the moment, we can't even get testing sorted!

Some great news on antibody testing to screen if you have already had the virus.
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That is certainly the way forward and it has been talked about in the uk.

What I don't get is why testing both "for / during" and "after" has not been sorted already?

In a naive thought you would think the WHO would have blueprints already based upon Chinese and others like South Korea or Singapore and these blueprints for creating testing kits would be shared.

Based upon various reports it looks like each country is reinventing these tests and taking valuable time doing so.

With something like this as a world we need to be better joined up and working together…

With something like this as a world we need to be better joined up and working together…

I saw at least one opinion piece that stated this could be a good thing that comes out of this experience -- the realization that we're in it together and are all better off if we cooperate. Big IF, but there may be hope yet.

The 'aliens' will have turned out to be smaller than anticipated then, Grumble.

Perhaps its the planets way of warning us to get our act together.

There is a theory being mooted here that if you have had one or more of the 4 corona viruses already in circulation each winter then the more of these you've had the lower your resistance to the current nasty one. That would explain why children who aren't old enough to have been exposed to all the other corona viruses seem to be immune to the Corvid19 one. The older you are the more exposure you've had, and this virus latches onto the antibodies produced by the other corona viruses and multiplies.

How in danger is Historicon do we think ?

There are signs Italy could be turning a corner, I think we'll have a better picture in mid April if the isolating is working.

How in danger is Historicon do we think ?

The Tokyo Olympics has been pushed back a year. I would assume the July 2020 date of Historicon is "history."

A lot has happened in a few weeks so let's hope some good things happen in a month or two.

My view at the moment is it is unlikely, but I am hoping I am wrong…