"What if the US won the Vietnam War?" Topic

"In 1975 the Vietnam War drew to an end, in a shocking turn of events the mighty United States of America had been defeated by the Communist North, and were forced to withdraw. We spoke to Dr Andrew Wiest, author of The Boys of '67: Charlie Company's War in Vietnam and Rolling Thunder in a Gentle Land: The Vietnam War Revisited, about how events might have unfolded, had the US proven successful in their efforts…"
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Amicalement
Armand

Funny that the posting immediately below this one is entitled "The Impossible Victory; Vietnam"

A very interesting question…for a 'what if'.

I think being defeated may have been a benefit for the US.

In terms of the Cold War, defeat meant little or nothing (which re-enforces the point: why was the US in Vietnam in the first place???).

However, the defeat revealed some serious shortcomings in the US military from recruitment, to doctrines to weaponry. The US military certainly addressed these in the following years and have a better armed forces in consequence.

I would wish that the US had learnt not to support unpopular dictatorships though. This would be a good lesson to learn.

Vietnam would be in the top 10 world economies.

If US had a "complete" victory not just on the battlefield you'd probably have a similar situation as we have in Korea.

However as Ochoin posted :

In terms of the Cold War, defeat meant little or nothing (which re-enforces the point: why was the US in Vietnam in the first place???).
However, the defeat revealed some serious shortcomings in the US military from recruitment, to doctrines to weaponry. The US military certainly addressed these in the following years and have a better armed forces in consequence.

Yes after Vietnam the US military had to rebuild itself from the ashes so to speak. I saw it first hand when I started ROTC in '75 right after high school. Then on Active Duty from '79-'90. The first step was ending the draft in '72/'73, IMO.

I would wish that the US had learnt not to support unpopular dictatorships though. This would be a good lesson to learn.

That will always be situational … Many shades of grey … IMO.

Vietnam would be in the top 10 world economies.

Maybe … easier said than done. However look at Japan and Korea's economies. As I said on another thread here. E.g. the cane, crutches and walker I got from the Veteran's Admin clinic were all made in Vietnam. I'm sure the irony is not lost on all the Vietnam Vet's that I see. Who get medical help for injures they incurred in SE Asia.

Isn't this the premise of "Watchmen"?

"…Vietnam would be in the top 10 world economies…."

I have said it many times here… we have to declare war to USA… then… the solution of our economic problems…(smile)

Amicalement
Armand

We won the war in Iraq and it has been nothing but peaches and cream ever since. Just peachy.

We won the war in Iraq and it has been nothing but peaches and cream ever since.

I'm not sure victory would be comforting to the dead, but the many thousands of US soldiers killed & the tens of thousands of wounded in a pointless & crushing defeat like Vietnam is tragic.

The fact that the US couldn't win on the battlefield & had no hope of prevailing with diplomacy pales into insignificance to the fact they shouldn't have been there in the first place.

"Domino Theory" – could Eisenhower et al be more wrong?
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We(the military) did not lose the War in Vietnam! The politicians did not have the ***** to uphold its obligations to an ally!

I thought Eisenhower was against intervening militarily in Vietnam?

I can always count on some of the over the top comments for a good laugh.

for a good laugh.

Laughing at a conflict that caused, amongst others, 58 000 dead American servicemen is IMO poor taste.

We've been through the chimera of "who won" many times before & I do realise it's hard to admit to defeat.

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Everything that needs to be said or written about this conclusion has been recorded so I already have invested more time than it's worth in this thread.

Not laughing at the war…..

I don't think it becomes you to be jocular about the war. My older brother fought as a signaller with the 4th Batt.RAR and no one in our family raises even a smile about Vietnam out of respect for those who didn't come back.

I think you should show some respect too.

What would have happened if the US had won? That's easy, Vietnam would be a thriving capitalist enterprise and their economy would be booming.

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Wolfhag

A whole lotta people wouldn't have been slaughtered, imprisoned and sent to re education camps. Australia wouldn't have been flooded with South Vietnamese refugees (who had their problems in the past but today are a huge asset to this country). Maybe US and Australian veterans wouldn't have been spat on by some of their own people. Then again maybe they would have anyway..

I believe even though we lost, we stood up to Communism and made the Communist nations of the world know that free people will fight hard to keep their freedom and it will cost many millions of Communist dead to overtake an entire country.

I believe by fighting hard in Vietnam the US showed other nations and the Soviets that spreading Communism worldwide wasn't going to be a cakewalk and to back off.

Americans, Australians, Koreans and Kiwis among others fighting in Vietnam made sure a lot of the world's free people still don't really know what Communism is.

Good post Uuparmored. After VN I don't think any other countries fell to Communism. I just wish the politicians would have handled it differently.

There was a good documentary broadcast recently that covered some other reasons. During the Cold War, the US promised support to countries against being taken over by the Communists. If we had not supported them it would have looked politically pretty bad.

During WWII the OSS supported Ho in the fight against the Japanese. Ho wanted to work with the US but Truman was against Communism and was fine the French getting Indo China back as a colony. When Eisenhower became President he didn't want to back the French anymore so did not help during Dien Bien Phu. The Cold War was in full gear by then.

About 6 years ago I sponsored a Vietnamese exchange student whose father has his own HVAC company. She said SVN is mostly Free Market and NVN still Communist and the country would be broke if not for the south. She said everyone calls Ho Chi Minh City Saigon. Both she and her brother graduated from US college and have a Green Card and good jobs. She always studied because she said if she did not get all A's her parents would beat her when she got home. I think many of the best and brightest come to the US.

Wolfhag

North Korea, the Chinese, and the Russians would be even more worried.

We won the war in Iraq and it has been nothing but peaches and cream ever since. Just peachy.

Yes sadly both Iraq and A'stan can't be "fixed" with or with out US and other nations' troops there. As soon as those "foreign" troops level both countries will fall back to their old ways and predilection even more so than now.

Wolf, Uparmored and Thresher I agree with pretty much all you posted here.

with the 4th Batt.RAR and no one in our family raises even a smile about Vietnam out of respect for those who didn't come back.

Having seen the traveling Vietnam Memorial Wall, it provided to be a much more moving experience than I first had believed. Too many lost with mountains poor decisions of elected civilian leadership. And even some of our senior Gens/Adms didn't have a good grip on the situation. When Westmoreland et al decided to fight a war of attrition against the birth rate of this tropical 3d world country. That didn't have to win, per se they just did have to lose. They were not going anywhere regardless. It was their homeland/backyard. The military couldn't have made a poorer choice of a strategies and tactics, IMO. The US/SEATO was playing Chess where the NVA were playing GO.

sentego.net/go-and-chess

I agree completely, Legion 4.

A pity those in power never get satisfactorily charged for their blunders and poor decision-making, and our troops have to pay for that, instead.

A pity those in power never get satisfactorily charged for their blunders and poor decision-making, and our troops have to pay for that, instead.

Unfortunately, they get re-elected and have a book written about themselves.

Wolfhag

Very true and that still happens today.

made the Communist nations of the world know that free people will fight hard to keep their freedom and it will cost many millions of Communist dead to overtake an entire country.

I think this dubious. And I'm not sure but the US' loss could equally have inspired insurrections as it proved the "Little Guy" could beat a super power.

Maybe US and Australian veterans wouldn't have been spat on by some of their own people.

It's been established that this is an urban myth.

Vietnam was an unwinnable war that should never have been fought. And, as usual, it's the common soldier & the local civilian who suffered for it.
I agree with everyone above about the utter stupidity of American civilian & military leadership.

A "favourite" of mine:
Gen. William Westmoreland, said before the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., "With 1968, a new phase is now starting. We have reached an important point when the end begins to come into view." He said this just before the Vietnamese launched their successful Tet Offensive, so when he spoke of "the end", he ironically didn't realise whose end he was talking about.

I think this dubious. And I'm not sure but the US' loss could equally have inspired insurrections as it proved the "Little Guy" could beat a super power.

After 10 plus years and millions of dead, and the huge advantage of Cambodia and Laos providing resupply and relative safe haven yeah, sure, the little guy won, I guess.

It's been established that this is an urban myth.

No it hasn't. There are many many sources that say it happened. The leftist mainstream media will pick up on any story from anyone that says it didn't though of course.

I agree with everyone above about the utter stupidity of American civilian & military leadership.

I disagree with you and everyone I guess that the military leadership was stupid. They won every battle and had a strategy to win, some say they could have with more time and more freedom to operate in Laos and Cambodia. They became better and better at COIN operations with free nation special forces feared and respected by the North by the end of the war. Then again the US lost A LOT of helicopters and aircraft various ways, but I'm sure they developed their tactics and improved over time. Again having more freedom in Laos and Cambodia could have reduced the supply of sophisticated AA systems to the North.

Hippies and the media lost the war as far as I can tell, not the US military, Legion4 may disagree, I respect his opinion highly.

He said this just before the Vietnamese launched their successful Tet Offensive

This quote shows how misinformed you are Ochoin, the Tet offensive was a spectactular military FAILURE. It devastated the Communists and they sustained epic casualties that made them much weaker, this could have been exploited by Free world forces if the media didn't lie to the American people about Tet's significance and spin it as a victory for the North. It was a turning point in Western public opinion, so if you consider that a success then I guess you ideologically side with communist causes in general and hate America and its values no matter what? Admit it, it's okay, I'm all for diversity of opinion, including my own.

Sorry, Uparmoured, your comments on Tet show how narrow your understanding is. Military failure? Absolutely. But war winning in a strategic sense. I stopped saying I'd won a wargame by counting how few "dead" figures I had in comparison to my opponent when I grew out of short pants. When the majority of people in a democracy think they've lost, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. Hippies, forsooth! That's the argument of someone who is fooling themself.

"In the theater of public opinion in the United States, however, the attacks were a great success for the North Vietnamese. Brought into the living rooms of Americans by new communications satellites over the Pacific, scenes of the carnage, particularly at the embassy, severely damaged national confidence in the war policies of President Lyndon Johnson, who was already under fire from a frustrated citizenry in a presidential election year. The dramatic developments set in train during Tet led eventually to the withdrawal of American forces and the collapse of South Vietnam."

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The Smithsonian Magazine is a reputable & non-partisan publication. One of an overwhelming number who draw the same conclusion.

Spitting on troops is Fake News. Its a myth that accompanys every defeated army since at least the Germans in 1918. There are *no* documented accounts of arrests in the US or OZ. There are plenty of "my friend's sister's neighbour's cousin was spat upon….". If you can find a documented incident, it'll be a very, very rare thing.
Here's a US veterans association giving you the lie:
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I guess you ideologically side with communist causes in general and hate America and its values no matter what?

Are you calling me a communist or saying I'm anti-American? I would suggest you retract this nonsense immediately. There's a rule here about calling some one a Nazi. I'd suggest you've just crossed the same line. If that's the best you can do to win this argument, you just lost.

The US won Tet on the ground, almost wiping out most VC/NLF units. And both the VC & NVA took heavy losses. They were not able to go on the offensive again, until '72. With the Year of the Rat offensive. As after the losses of Tet, '68, the NVA had to rebuild itself.

After Tet the NVA held little to no objectives, in the South. E.g. Hue. With heavy losses to show for it. It is said Giap did not want to go a major offensive in '68. But his civilian leadership ordered him to.

Plus the VC had taken very heavy losses as the NVA pushed them forward in many locations. They knew that many of the VC were not hard core communists but very much Nationalists. The just wanted another "round-eyed" invader in their country out. This time it's the US and it's allies(SEATO), replacing the French they had thrown out less than a decade before.

The NVA knew they didn't want to deal with these Southern Nationalists once they defeated the ARVN, etc. So getting them out of the way worked out well for them. Pushing them forward in a general offensive like Tet. Adding to the massive amount of attacks the NVA were executing. Tying up US/SEATO units, causing them some losses of assets, using up ammo, etc. As I saw one Vet say in a documentary, that they stacked them up like cord wood.

In '72 the VC had about 3 operational regiments. In some cases fleshed out with NVA.

No it hasn't. There are many many sources that say it happened. The leftist mainstream media will pick up on any story from anyone that says it didn't though of course.

I don't doubt this happened but if only in a very few cases. I remember Vet's relaying that story to me. Even if it happened just once – it happened. And was very disconcerting on many levels.

the US lost A LOT of helicopters

About 5000 the last figure I had read/heard. But even if the figure was only half that. That is still a lot of losses of blood & treasure.

The big lessoned learned is you don't go into a known Hot LZ. A forced entry operation, e.g. like Normandy, unless you are willing to possibly take heavy losses. Basically as we know generally that we don't do forced entry ops today, just for that reason.

Ralph,

Thanks for the clear analysis of Tet.

From what I read from both sides, the real losers were here NLF.

When I started Army ROTC in '75 only a few years after the war. All are instructors were Active Duty and most Vets' of Vietnam. We learned a lot from them, especially those of us that were going into Combat Arms, e.g. Infantry, Armor, FA, etc. Then when I on Active duty in '79 with the 101. Many of the senior officers and NCOs were Vietnam Veterans.

So I made it a point to listen to everything they said. And did a lot of research of my own even before I got in the Army.

I'd like to think many times what I post on this topic is fairly accurate. Based not only from those that were there as well some very well documented sources.

I am never too sure about the "US" when describing involvement in the VN War. Are we talking about the USA, which I take to be the land from extreme East Coast to Hawaii…or USA, the US Army?

Whether Army or Marines (never mind Navy, Airforce, and other units I have surely forgot) they won every single pitched battle against the NLF (whether VC, NVA etc). Every battle was won (or drawn maybe). OK you may argue the "US", the government, lost the war.

All that Tet showed was that the enemy was prepared to fight on and take massive casualties, to almost no purpose other than world opinion! Their intelligence SURELY must have told them that the citizens of Saigon or Hue would not suddenly take to the streets, AKs in hand (which they had no idea how to use and were seemingly not provided for anyway).

Tet, we are told, was meant to inspire a popular revolt. I can see no planning for such. I could load an AK 47, set it to fire so many rounds, reasonably aim the damn thing. No idea how to strip or clean it ….how does the guy running the noodle stall now do it?

THE USA did win the Vietnam War….that is the real lesson. If only they could have done it without the loss of that wall in DC. As the world's greatest cynic, I admit how moved I was by that…totally unexpected.

Like today I drove through a local village…a detour as bridge is out…North Yorkshire, maybe twenty, thirty old houses and farms around. Village green as a WWI memorial. Had to stop. Eleven names on it from WWI…We are so lucky

Deadhead --
I cannot and will not approach the wall. The sight of it brings trembling and tears !!

The big lessoned learned is you don't go into a known Hot LZ.

Unless you are a 19-year-old Army Warrant Officer Huey pilot.

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Excerpt: Why the grief? Top-notch flying skills wouldn't be enough to cope with the chaos and fury of combat. An aircraft commander in Vietnam—even if too young to vote—was going to hold life-and-death power over his co-pilot, crew, passengers, and many others within range, so he needed a cool and steady temperament. Occasionally a senior pilot was injured, and brand-new copilots had to take command. And they could face such trials very soon after landing in Vietnam. Williams recalled that one of his classmates, having been called into action while on an orientation flight with a veteran aircraft commander just four days into his first tour in Vietnam, was killed in action. Jim Martinson, another student, had been in-country just a month when he was shot down twice in one day. "I can remember the first combat assault I saw like it was yesterday," Williams said. "It was intense. We were on the second lift, and every time a slick [on the first lift] would get on the radio you could hear the gunfire. There were gunships flying over the targets, [white phosphorous] smoke, and the enemy firing from the treelines. I thought, I don't know how long I have to live. It was surreal, like: How did I end up in this movie?" Hence the daily harassment of warrant-officer candidates at Wolters. "The first four weeks was like a filter," Messinger said. "If you can't take this, you can't take combat either". Messinger recalled the rebellion of an experienced non-com with a fine service record. "He said, ‘I'm a staff sergeant and I don't have to put up with this.' So he just left and went back to his E-6 rating."

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Today, the U.S. Army has approximately 1,150 authorizations for Chief Warrant Officer 5 across all three components (Active, Reserve and National Guard).

In VN these, 18-21-year-olds flew some of the toughest missions, especially in I Corps in support of the Marines for the 3rd Force Recon under Capt Steele patrolling behind enemy lines, even into the DMZ. Many times they were the only ones to pull a Recon Team out and never hesitated. These guys were fearless. A friend of mine who was a Marine Company Commander during the battle of Hue. During a meeting with the Marine Air Commander, the chopper CO refused to fly resupply and evac missions into Hue because it was too dangerous. The Marine officer got a few 20-year-old Army Warrant Officers to fly their Huyues into Hue when the Marines refused. They did the same during Khe Sanh.

The Marines were always short of helicopter support in I Corps. Another time a Marine officer friend of mine was at a Marine firebase just south of the DMZ and needed to get somewhere fast and didn't have a ride. An Army Huey landed and offloaded supplies and he ran up to the pilot. He said the pilot looked like he had never shaved before. He told him where he wanted to go and the pilot said, "Hop on". As they took off the pilot said, "I don't know where you want to go but I'm going to be flying just over the treetops. Tap my right shoulder if you want me to turn right and my left shoulder if you want me to turn left". It's obvious this young Army WO was having the time of his life.

In 1971 I was in the Marine PLC program and I wanted to fly but I could not wait for college and Marine flight training. I considered the Army Warrant Officer helicopter program and I'd have been guaranteed a pilot position (I already had my pilot's license in high school). I seriously thought about it but I declined. I knew the reason the Army had so many openings so I thought my chances were better being a Marine grunt. Damn, I guess I was not brave enough or had enough balls to go Army. Oh well, I'm now an old fart and my son is a Marine and did stuff I'd only dreamed of so maybe I made the right decision.

If you ever see some old guy that is wearing a Huey helicopter on his ball cap give him a hug and tell him thank you, especially if you are a Marine.

I just hope someday these Army guys get the recognition they deserve.

Wolfhag

deadhead +1

@ Old Glory – I can certainly understand your reaction. I've been told many of those who served in Vietnam have had similar. I know I found it a very sobering and somber experience for me. And I didn't serve until '79. Well after Vietnam.

@ Wolf – Yes it is well known how brave to point of almost being foolhardy some of these US Chopper pilots were. There are a number in the local Military Officers Assoc. of America[MOAA] Chapter. Both WOs and Officers. I always talk them and "absorb" the information from those who lived it. They saw the elephant(s) …

My one very good buddies in MOAA was a USMC Plt Ldr early in the war in Vietnam. He was Rifle and 81mm Plt Ldr. As was I with the 101, '80-'81, a decade or so later. I always listen to his experiences, etc. He also told me how much he liked the US Army Chopper Pilots better than the USMC's. Just because as you said Wolf, the US Army pilots were amazingly brave, as well amazingly skilled, etc.

Even today their legacy lives on with US ARMY's 160th SOAR. Is known to have some of the best Chopper crews on the planet. They flew the SEALs in on the UBL Raid. As well as on many other SOCOM ops. They are usually chosen for many/most of the Spec Ops missions currently.

I know when I was in the 101 we also had some Vietnam Vet pilots. They were excellent ! Put us into some very tight spots in the dark, flying NOE and contour, etc.

As the Bn Air Ops Ofr(S-3 Air), I did Air Mission Briefs with them very often. Made some good friends. I spent a lot of time flying as a passenger in Hueys, CH-47s, OH-58s then the UH-60. As both a Plt Ldr then the Bn S-3 Air.

If you ever see some old guy that is wearing a Huey helicopter on his ball cap give him a hug and tell him thank you, especially if you are a Marine.

I will forward your regards to them when we/MOAA meet later this month. And tell my USMC buddy you agree with him about US ARMY chopper crews.

I just hope someday these Army guys get the recognition they deserve.

MOAA just gave all of those Vietnam Vets in MOAA a lapel pin as recognition, thanks, etc. I was at that ceremony/dinner. It was very nice. I know it was a very small token of appreciation, etc. for their service. But in organizations like MOAA, VFW, etc., these Vets and Vets from other war are not forgotten.

The army chopper pilots were warrent officers and much younger then ours. Most Marine chopper pilots were middle ranked officers and older.

Yes, and the Army had a lot more choppers than the USMC …

I have a great deal of respect for the US Armed Forces and for those who serve in it. Still, I have a hard time agreeing that the US won every military engagement in Vietnam (or battle depending on what you consider a battle there was). Even if the US did, I believe debating who won the battles is immaterial.

As for the Tet offensive, from what I've read, I think the NVA weren't just aiming for a propaganda victory. It seems to me that they truly expected a mass uprising to occur and acted accordingly. I have a hard time believing their strategy was simply to take casualties until the US left.

In my opinion the press got Tet wrong, and in a way, got it right. Except at Hue, where the their victory was fleeting, I don't think any of the NVA's main objectives were made. Even more, I believe the VC were left severely weakened which was a huge plus for the US position. Where I feel the US press were spot on was in that the war was far from over.

On another tangent, I believe the US Air Force had to fight it's war with at least one hand tied behind their back. Sent against ever increasing anti-air assets US pilots were in an unenviable position in my opinion. Though I suppose both sides, in the air and on the ground, could fairly make that point.

Even if the US did, I believe debating who won the battles is immaterial.

At the Peace Talks in Paris. A senior US ARMY officer said to one of the reps from the North. Something to the effect of, "You never beat us in the field.".

The reply from that rep from the North, was sometime like, "That is irrelevant."

Again as I said, the VC/NVA knew they didn't have win. Just not lose and pretty soon the US/SEATO will leave. If they kill and wound enough of them. Costing them not only a lot of blood, but treasure. They, the US/SEATO will leave, and the VC/NVA are not going anywhere. It's their backyard.