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©1994-2020 Bill Armintrout
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Tango0106 Nov 2019 1:18 p.m. PST

…. Oncoming Wave of Conflict.

"Patterns really do exist in the world. Gas prices are highest around Memorial Day. Humans historically settle close to navigable waterways. After a third glass of Thanksgiving chardonnay, Aunt Cheryl explains all the faults of Millenial society. Year after year, without fail, these trends hold true enough. Humans see patterns rather quickly, often without even realizing it. Social science builds upon the study of these trends, and macro trends provide indispensable value to the study of global politics. Importantly, these trends indicate that the current generation will soon face a major conflict.

Ancient Etruscans used the term saeculum to describe a complete cycle of the human race, in essence the period of time for every living soul to recycle. Each saeculum was approximately 90 years and consisted of four distinct periods, each lasting approximately 22 years. This term, and frame of reference, was adopted first by the Romans and later by nineteenth century historians and twentieth century sociologists who sought to model generational traits and attributes.

American historians notice patterns in American political tendencies that started at the formation of the country. Henry Adams used comparative politics to study ideological waves in the latter half of the nineteenth century, theorizing the Pendulum model describing how American politics alternates between 12 year periods of centralization and diffusion.[2] Arthur Schlesinger, Sr. expanded on Adams' work, suggesting that because the alternating conservative-liberal 16.5 year periods slowly moved in a central direction over time, these periods should be viewed as a spiral.[3] His son, Arthur Schlesinger, Jr., published The Cycles of American History in 1986, which expanded upon his father's work. Schlesinger, Jr. suggests that "each new generation when it attains power, tends to repudiate the work of the generation it has displaced and to reenact the ideals of its own formative days."[4] He argues that a generation is approximately 30 years, representing two "fifteen year oscillations [that] roughly match Henry Adams' twelve years in the early republic (when life expectancy was shorter) and my father's sixteen and one-half years."[5] Analyzing history through this lens enhanced the implications that could be drawn from academic research. Could a similar lens capture the patterns of conflict within the human race?…"
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Fitzovich06 Nov 2019 3:49 p.m. PST

Interesting piece. Thanks for posting.

Tango0107 Nov 2019 12:19 p.m. PST

A votre service mon ami!. (smile)


Walking Sailor Supporting Member of TMP07 Nov 2019 7:12 p.m. PST

If the 50, 80, or 90 year cycles are accepted, they respectively imply that the next major conflict will occur around 1989, 2019, or 2029 based off World War II's start year of 1939.

Lion in the Stars09 Nov 2019 1:16 p.m. PST

I'm leaning towards the 90-year cycle.

We should have another 10 years of ever-increasing ugliness before the next global conflict kicks off.

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