"No Turkish Wars so far..." Topic

Back in 1997, writing for Miniature Wargames magazine, Jim Webster said that it was probable that Turkey would be "close to war" with Greece, Cyprus and Bulgaria in the next 20 years.

Well, 20 years are up, why didn't it happen?

The Greek financial crisis, Bulgaria's armed forces deteriorated, going from having around 2500 tanks to 500 and only about 30,000 active personnel, and Turkey's armed forces have been stagnant for quite some time. Today there simply aren't the armed forces in the region to prosecute a full fledged war. Border disputes or a show of force, maybe, but that's about it.

Why is this so disappointing?

I don't think it is "disappointing", it's more of the question, "What changed over the last 20 years that made these predictions invalid?"

First of all, Jim Webster is hardly an expert in international relations. Nor is Miniature Wargames magazine the go to periodical for serious analysis of such issues.
So, I think using his predictions is specious on its face.

Plus, I think we as wargamers have plenty of wars to game, and find looking for new ones to be silly, if not offensive.

What happened is that Turkey has been distracted by a very large war on her southern border since 2003.

Why would Turkey go to war with Bulgaria? Honest question since I don't know anything about what sort of disputes there are. The situation with Greece & Cyprus is much better known…

Damon.

The dispute between Turkey and Bulgaria apparently pre-dates the establishment of Turkey.

The Ottoman Empire in 1913 expelled Bulgarians from its territory, Turkey acknowledged the rights of the displaced people in a 1925 treaty, but the matter had not been settled as of 2010 (the most recent information I can find).