"Is Russia Contemplating Seizing Territory From Finland " Topic

… or Sweden?

"Not many observers would consider the world's coldest shipping lane a geopolitical hotspot. But that may be about to change. Last week, reports emerged that a new Kremlin policy will require all international naval ships to give Russia 45 days' notice before entering the Northern Sea Route, which connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans via the Arctic waters north of Siberia. Every vessel on the route, where Russia has invested heavily in sophisticated military infrastructure, will also be required to have a Russian maritime pilot on board. Ships found in violation of these restrictions may be forcibly halted, detained, or—in unspecified "extreme" circumstances—"eliminated."

The Kremlin's latest threat has gone largely unnoticed, perhaps because it's no surprise. Russian officials justify the new naval restrictions with a familiar explanation, claiming that "the more active naval operations in the Arctic of various foreign countries" require such a response…."

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Please… take note that the above author is Mikheil Saakashvili, the former President of Georgia who is now wanted in his former country after being convicted of a number of crimes. His hostility towards Russia is also well known.

Amicalement
Armand

When it come to Finland all I can say is "good luck". The Russians will need it in their failure. They would have better chance against Sweden. Almost no military forces and very weak political leadership. A quick "snatch and grab" against Swedish territory would work. Sweden could not stop the initial attack and have no political balls to rearm and take it back. Sweden would chicken out, cry to the EU and Nato and do nothing.

Crimea is one thing, or taking back some Fillintheblankastan that used to be USSR territory, but I believe Finland or Sweden would not be allowed. And, yes, I think the Fins would kick Russian butt.

Coming from Saakashvili it sounds as credible as from Mad Hatter.
It feeds the drive to get both Finland and Sweden into NATO, but I see no reason to attack Scandinavia unless we're at war with NATO, and it is for some reason not going nuclear in a matter of minutes…
I'll be more concerned over potential tensions in Arctic region with the bordering countries as well as other big players like USA and China.

Barin-
Its true that Saakashvili may have an axe to grind, but are we not to take the Putin government's pronouncements with a very large grain of salt?

If you make a search, you may find, for instance, how Baltic States leaders were making statements during several last years that Russian military drills are actually a plot to capture them. You may also find plenty of overblown reactions on routine subs or planes patrols. They are always there, on both sides. I will not start on what Polish politicians are saying to get this Fort Trump base and US financing and presence.
My opinion that all what we see today is about money and influence. Capturing Finland or Sweden is not going to get any to Russia. It might only have strategic value in war times, and even then there would be other more interersting locations.
On the other hand, getting Finland and Sweden into NATO will give lots of money to military tycoons and more carrier possibilities to plenty of people.

Agree with Barin…

Amicalement
Armand

Good analysis of the situation Barin.

I am no fan of Putin as I feel he is selling the Russian people a bill of goods, however, he is no fool and an overt act of hostility against a nation that is fully independent of Russia including in its language and culture would be far too brazen even for him. I don't agree with all of Barin1's statement but I agree with his conclusion; there's no value in it for Russia unless a war does break out.

Private Matter +1.

Barin- Poles have more than enough reasons to distrust Russia.