"Determining Market Demand for a Given Miniatures Range" Topic

How many times have you been told by a maker that a certain historical figure cannot be produced because its commercial success will be limited?

With all that blither about serious market principles determining what gets released in the hobby, I have to ask why things like this get produced?

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Apparently, Defense Forces Otters are in higher demand than 40mm Dutch-Belgian Napoleonics!

There's even a bare headed otter!

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What exactly are these men (err rodents) fighting for? An abalone in every pot?

How exactly do miniatures ranges get released? What are the market factors and are there really any impact studies done to determine commercial viability ahead of time? Or do makers simply tell us it's logical and then simply sculpt whatever they and their friends want?

Does anyone else find this situation Otterly ridiculous?

Ooo! They look cool, I'll have to get some.

Years ago, I do recall seeing a 25mm white metal Renaissance range of Otterman Turks.

My $.02 USD,

As for me, I complexly agree with 'MiniPigs'. It would be 'educational' to ask the company producing these figures---as to what the profit was in about five years time?

Tom Semian
Warren, PA. 16329

a. Of course it IS blither. No one really knows what the market is for a range which has never been offered for sale. Though I suspect it's easier to make a good guess with historicals than with fantasy/SF.

b. It's a gamble. It could sink like a rock. But if it catches on, the people who buy it can't very well switch to 15mm next week, or decide someone else makes a better proportioned Defense Forces Otter. So

c. It's another consequence of GW. Half to two-thirds of all the sculptors and manufacturers in the business are shooting for a franchise of their own. Trying to remember who observed that one of the worst consequences of Napoleon handing out a throne to his brother in law was that every French corps commander thought that if Murat could be a king, they could be too. Something similar here.

I, for one, welcome our new Otter overlords!

most figure designers make what 'they' want. If it becomes popular or is a good 'core' product, it sells.

Could you use Defense Forces Otters as stand-ins for Dutch-Belgian Napoleonics? No-one will notice I'm sure.

I wouldn't overthink it. Manufacturers don't do studies or marketing surveys to gauge demand, which is hard to project to profits anyway.

Unlike Napoleonics, Otters carrying guns have not been covered before and whoever releases them created a niche market for them for current/future consumers. They could also be priced higher per figure than historicals. Besides, competition is much less cut-throat in the sci-fi animal genre than Napoleonics, which is among the largest and arguably the most competitive and wide-ranging. The trick is to do something new.

These otter minis were funded by KS btw for over £15,000.00 GBP: link

I really dig the Albdeo stuff. If it was 20mm I would be bankrupt after buying tons of it.

Greycat made fantasy Ottermans for Off the Wall armies:

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I wish there was more 20mm scifi out there. Lately I just find people who can print stuff for me at reduced scale. That works for now until 20mm scifi comes around as the new thing. Sadly the last 2 kick starters fizzled…one mainly due to complaints of other scale gamers not being able to use the figs. As if there wasn't enough out there for those scales to start with…

But I'm not bitter :)

28mm dominates the skirmish market in multiple genres from fantasy to sci-fi to WWII. It's just the way it is. 20mm seems to be the ignored middle tweener child, squeezed between 28mm at one end and 15mm at the other. Poor Jan; it's always Marsha Marsha Marsha and cute Cindy.

We've always taken suggestions and requests, plus subsequent votes for each item, and use that info as a good indicator of what could be popular. We publish a Top 10 Requests regularly as well: link

So far it's proven pretty reliable and has led to a lot of new ranges and additions to existing product lines.

I do love the gag about Otterman Turks and am sure it did not pass over many heads.

A great question posed. How can folk make a living from casting Orcs in Waterloo rig, or largely naked girls, with incredible figures, in fantasy Polish Lancer rig….and yet no one will do us some of the most famous units of the Napoleonic Era?

Garde Grenadiers a Cheval or Empress Dragoons (to mix my languages) in full dress, in human proportions, on parade. A dozen other names immediately would follow these, but these are top of any list surely. The Russian Chevaliers broken at Austerlitz…who does them in TOTS (The One True Scale)?

Why does no one do female Pictish warriors? They're one of the few civilisations in history who seem to actually have had female combatants and yet the people making Picts currently for systems like Saga have no female combatants.

Does anyone do the Spartacus era in 28mm?

Well, they claim:

"Kickstarter 100% Funded in first 13 hours!"

Albedo Combat Patrol, ACP164 is a new 28mm science fiction miniatures game set in Steve Gallachi's "Albedo Anthropomorphics" universe.

I've never heard of it. Mind you, Games Workshop seems to have made a fortune off of silly figures, so who knows …

Kicksstarter is in fact the premier tool for judging commercial viability for new ranges; and the Albedo range has been making full and profitable use of this marketing tool.

Otters aren't rodents – they're Mustelidae, like weasels or badgers. No use at all when what we want are 15mm 40 pounder cannon of 1879.

I would not be at all surprised that armoured otters are more popular than 40mm napoleonic Dutch-Belgian. The latter is historical Wargaming, which is waning as its fan base (including me) are dinosaurs, and as said earlier it's in a less popular scale. It's not got much going for it, has it?. A range of figures for use in small fantasy/sci-FI games looks decidedly more appealing to younger folk.

That is a very good point. Games Workshop have just announced massive profits for the last year.

Fantasy/Superhero films now dominate the market. Game of Thrones and before that LOTR turned up a tidy sum in merchandising. The Harry Potter fanbase was largely unborn when the first films came out, but still a massive little earner.

Mind you, dinosaurs have only been gone for 65 million years and they flourished for much longer than that. Indeed, those pheasant in our garden might just be their descendants.

I will admit that if I could find two otter castings about 28mm in just their fur, holding weapons, I'd buy them. (Who else remembers Spiff and Sweeting, the giant mutant sea otters in various James H. Schmitz stories, notably The Demon Breed?)

My fantasy 28mm armies have a specified structure and number of units. Same with my 28mm Horse and Musket. But I've never figured out exactly what I'm doing with 28mm adventurers or SF, so a certain number of figures come home because they look cute.

@ Mr Jones,

It's true, I plan to take some 1812 40mm Americans and do a lot of modelling to make them Dutch Belgian Militia. Maybe I'll throw in the odd Otter and see if anyone notices.

@John Watts

Otters may not be rodents but pedants are.

@Emperorbaz

I am not surprised that Otters are more popular than 40mm Dutch-Belgians either but then, I am not surprised Fentanyl is more popular than volunteering at a soup kitchen.

It's sad that in the one area where one's own imagination is supposed to rule, people rely most heavily on someone else's. I note that most of these fantasy and sci-fi wargames play just like a historical skirmish game.

Again, I am not surprised, i just dont like it. Maybe it's the marketing? If someone did a graphic novel of the adventures of some 40mm Dutch-Belgians, a miniature manufacturer would then make them?

Commercial demand for a given item isnt the only reason to make an item, sometimes the success is measured peripherally like, the availability of Dutch-Belgians drives the sales of Waterloo British. I wouldnt expect people in this hobby to understand actual marketing though. Just like I rarely expect anyone who runs a wargaming figures company to not be completely broken down by illness or personal problems.

FYI, Kickstarters tend to just sell to those who initially contribute and it could be that after the initial fur flying event, sales drop off.

Who is going to challenge the otter sculptor about the accuracy of his figures, and suggest that otters never really used bricoles?

As a sculptor I can definitely confirm that i would get asked to build things like this a hundred times over and the client paying is NEVER a problem. I hardly get asked for historical stuff, if I do it's Bolt action related. And normally there is a 'problem' with payment for historicals or the 'manufacturer' will quibble the price etc. Worse still people will go on forums like this and say how inaccurate they are….. This says it all. For my Napoleonics I build my own, and in terms of sales I'm lucky if they ever fund the moulds. Historical players grossly overstate their purchase power.

What a fantastic and thought inspiring response this has raised.

We rarely get an insight into the commercial side of this. We just demand obscure units, from a period very marginal to the Napoleonic Wars, from countries that are north of the Arctic Circle and in poses that will never actually sell….oh and in plastic to save us money.

But heck, you cannot blame us. I want French Guard Grenadiers a Cheval in Parade rig on standing horses in 28mm. Sure, in 15/18mm wonderful from You know who. But is that too much to ask commercially in TOTS?

Deadhead + 1. Mounted horse artillery gunners as well.

Three Armies – the hobby needs you. Just received the British in greatcoats and can't wait to start painting.

I know that fantasy stuff is vastly popular but will never understand why, undoubtedly a lack of imagination on my part.

Fantasy is more popular because there is little in the way of history in popular culture these days. Fantasy allows the creators to have their own fiefdoms too where they can decide the rules and look of everything.

The biggest historic eras are Nazis, I'm not saying WWII as the focus in pop culture is the nazis, whether that is persecution of the jews or zombies. I haven't seen a real non-American war film set in WWII for decades. Dunkirk was more like watching a documentary.

The next is probably an even split between vikings and knights though generally speaking poorly done in terms of accuracy. Things like the computer game Skyrim are more part of younger people's culture now than tales of Richard Lionheart and the mess they've made of Robin Hood over the years has kind of wrecked that genre in favour of Green Arrow or Assassin's Creed.

Generally typing, with the exception of WW2, mass battles historicals in the traditional periods seem to have little traction with the youth of today (and FoW only succeeded because WW2 is screen-accessible and has familiar technology, tanks, and easy-to-paint figures). When historicals do gain a small foothold in the wider hobby it's more usually in the realm of highly caricatured ('themed'), practicably and intellectually broadly accessible skirmish-level gaming, as with the success of 'Saga', and to a lesser extent, 'Blood and Plunder', and their ilk.

You would think, this being the case, that companies which focus on this end of the market would be on the lookout for new, hitherto untouched, self-contained, skirmish-level properties with their own unique and rich cultural and geographical background and the potential for the inclusion of a fantastical element, but over the years several such companies have promised to start on a comprehensive historical Colonial Australia range and ultimately failed to produce anything whatsoever.

Nicely put, MiniPigs – but what about those 40 pounders?

Doesn't Kickstarter answer this question?

After all, if you need "X" amount of money for a project, however unusual it is, and you raise the money, then you have answered the question of if it will sell.

As for historical periods being less popular than sci-fi and fantasy, well, sorta.

The main problem is that a lot of the older gamers like overly complicated rule sets with tons of modifiers that take hours to pore over. Younger people have no interest in that.

In an interesting coincidence, I was looking at my old copy of WRG's Renaissance and some other very dated rule sets, and I was astonished that anyone ever played them.

That being said, I still know old guys who love that sort of thing. Being retired, they have an infinite amount of time to read charts. However, none of their children wargame.

I think Kickstarter is a useful miniatures range designing tool, assuming it's broadly known about by the target audience.

However, it seems a lot of makers either want to make things in secret so the idea isnt copied; like 28mm French Old Guard…because dats original.

Or, they want to make what they and their friends want and try to recoup costs from the public. Not a bad model if you're talented but a risk if it's a subject no one else cares about.

Or, they want to make the same-old-same-old but different. Which means 28mm Old Guard with hyper-articulated mustaches and queues specially sculpted for the day of Surrender at Ulm, 1805.

As for your second sort of question. It's not just older gamers, it's also what sort of people wargame. My observation is that quite a few of them are bored and want wargaming to be a challenge which means complicated rules because complicated rules must equal "period flavor" and "Aktuawl genrilship".

Further, they want to prove the hobby is intellectual and not just toy soldiers.

Last a lot of them are technicians and want to prove everything can be rationalized and controlled which is why they like charts.

"I must still be alive…the chart says so!"

It's true people have less attention span and patience bc of the Internet but when I was a child, I still didnt like reading those wargames rulebooks and especially WRG. It may be that a certain type of mind likes those chart based rules. Like the National car rental commercial says: "Ahhhh, Control"

If wargaming is dying out, it's not because of the lack of interest in the hobby per se, but rather it's probably a mix of factors including the fact that younger people dont have the same stability to warehouse oodles of 28mm Old Guard like their forefathers could.

Younger people also dont seem to read as much about history which would in turn lead to interest in military history and uniforms which would lead to…you guessed it…28mm Old Guard!

MiniPigs, you missed the part where wargames can be played on computers now with entire communities dedicated to producing mods to represent all those units and features that the core game lacks.
There's simply more competition out there and wargaming is far more expensive than buying the latest edition of Rome:Total War.

I'll also reiterate what I said earlier in that historic war films are rare. When was the last series or film made about the Napoleonic Wars? It's easier to throw a bunch of guys in leather rags, give them a sword and then call it Robin Hood or the Three Mustketeers using generic pre-industrial looking sets.

Hi, My 1st post here but an interesting thread, I don't know about the US but here in the UK history is hardly taught in schools and if it is then it is a very PC version of what really happened, most people under 30 actually think Braveheart with Mel Gibson is historically accurate! I think because of this historical wargaming is not seen by the younger generation as being interesting and they prefer to play games, either online or with figures, were they don't have to worry historical accuracy, it's just easier. Sad state of affairs as far as I am concerned, but at least my grandson can annoy his teachers when he points out inaccuracy's in what they are trying to teach!

One evening at dinner I listened as a well known miniature producer explained why new scales/ranges sold better than adding to an existing scale/range. The point being that his philosophy was to never redo/update/upgrade/expand anything already being produced because it just wasn't cost effective. He'd rather develop a new scale/range with a larger profit margin. As to new people coming into the hobby, the best bthing we can do is treat them nicely and be patient. Kids/young folk tend to appreciate folks who listen to them and treat them civilly. Laugh a lot with the young ones, mistakes happen, best to laugh about it than yell about it. I coached youth soccer for many years, I always told my players to never worry about the scores or games we won/lost. I told them they would long remember each other, but not wins/losses or game scores. Teach the joy of gaming and let everything else fall into second place. Jus sayin.

First; I loved Paul831's input. His First input here. Please continue. It is down to a few neurotic obsessionists to keep this going. How can you knock Braveheart? Never mind that Wallace and Sophie's character were separated by a half a century. Paddy Mc Goo's Longshanks is just incredible. I do not care if he never chucked that lad out the window. If my O level history had told me that (and not the Bloody Corn Laws, the Great Reform Act, the Fashoda Incident, The Schleswig Holstein Dispute) I might have done what two of my three sons did and pursued history at Uni.

Second; well just what a great thread this is. How much would I love to hear more from the makers.

Perrys are great at responding on this forum. But they do remind me of Ben and Jerry. (Unless you are a Deadhead, this will mean nothing to you). You create a creation, it then takes off big time, you are totally non interested in commercial gain because of the era in which you matured, but then sell the venture for multi-millions.

Perrys are not quite yet at the last stage, but can offer the most obscure Scandinavian Pontoon a Cheval de la Garde command units…with a flag and trumpeter. But not cavalry of the most famous units of the era…..in parade dress….

That is their privilege, once this successful .

I guess the best way to get those "special" units is to have them done up by companies that offer they skills to make that one-off figure….for a price. Barber miniatures and a few others offer that service.

Yes I have used Steve Barber services to sculpt some figures for the Acehnese Wars (1873-1904) in the Dutch East Indies but not very much interest in it so far.
Mark

Is it too much to ask for Grenadiers a Cheval in parade dress? Give me the long tailed coat with lapels. Give me the "correct" shape for the bearskin, not a blob. Swap the aigulettes to the other shoulder, I'll add the extra holster if need be, for Empress Dragoons. Gendarmes d'Elite the same. All on standing or walking horses.

The most famous units of the era. We only get them in what may have been campaign uniform…and that in 1815 anyway

Miniatures are like clothes, everything eventually comes back in style.

@Marco56

I am shocked that the Acehnese War hasn't caught fire with wargamers. Does Tiger Mniniatures do a range?

@deadhead

You wouldnt think that would be a tall order. Maybe if we did an Otter version of these troops, they would get parade ground unis?

@GROSSMAN

Clothes almost never come back into style, even when a particular item gets taken up again, it's rarely constructed the same way or used in the manner it was originally intended. And, btw, you mean "fashion" not "style" :)

We are more likely to get half naked nubile young ladies (not that I have anything against half naked nubile young ladies mind you) in 28mm, "dressed" as "Grenadieres" a Cheval de la Garde Imperiale, than what we really need.

@deadhead

That is an outrageous statement. How dare you advocate for partially dressing nubile young ladies!

Well I have been drawn to the Victrix site in the last few days, by the suggestion of Lancers of the Guard.

Idle curiosity led me to "Naked Gaullist Fanatics" or some such title. I imagined an incident from the Liberation of Paris celebrations (actually maybe it was Gauls, now I think of it). These poor chaps are stark b…..k naked. Now it does get chilly in Gaul and it may have been a winter campaign, but on balance I think partially dressing is better for the chaps anyway. Check out the optional parts and you will see what I mean.