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"Can China and the United States Avoid War?" Topic


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552 hits since 29 Dec 2018
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Personal logo Editor in Chief Bill The Editor of TMP Fezian29 Dec 2018 11:48 a.m. PST

Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd —in his keynote address at the New China Challenge conference in October—considered the strategic competition between the United States and China…

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RudyNelson29 Dec 2018 3:13 p.m. PST

The US would have an immediate problem finder no all of the sleeper in the states from China. Look at all of the Chinese owned businesses with family members still in China.

darthfozzywig Supporting Member of TMP29 Dec 2018 3:16 p.m. PST

The US would have an immediate problem finder no all of the sleeper in the states from China. Look at all of the Chinese owned businesses with family members still in China.

Let's don't do Manzanar all over again just yet.

RudyNelson29 Dec 2018 4:58 p.m. PST

I do not know what that refers too. Please more info. Thanks.

28mm Fanatik29 Dec 2018 6:06 p.m. PST

If the US doesn't want to be eventually displaced as the top dog in the world like it replaced Britain in the early 20th Century, then I suppose it better start a war with China.

It's called the "Thucydides Trap" by Graham Allison.

Lion in the Stars30 Dec 2018 5:46 p.m. PST

China has 4x the US population. Why wouldn't China eventually have an economy 4x the size of the US?

USAFpilot30 Dec 2018 6:09 p.m. PST

Freedom and capitalism give rise to innovation. Who would they steal technology from if it wasn't for the free West. China needs us.

Thresher01 Supporting Member of TMP31 Dec 2018 2:08 p.m. PST

Probably not.

Communism Lion.

It will be interesting to see if the Chinese people bristle under the onerous weight of that at some point in the future.

Clearly, Taiwan already has, and some in Hong Kong seem predisposed to doing so as well. Makes me wonder when/if the mainland people will eventually rebel too.

Lion in the Stars31 Dec 2018 2:25 p.m. PST

Oh, I expect the Chinese to object to Communism eventually.

But the Chinese have always lived under a much more controlled culture than most other nations, so I expect that their tolerance is a lot higher than Westerners.

My guess is that China will start to see major objections about the time their economy is twice the size of the US (which means their GDP per capita is about half that of the US).

28mm Fanatik31 Dec 2018 3:07 p.m. PST

Communism isn't the monolithic, closed system in which the individual is expected to sacrifice his freedom for the good of the state that it used to be. Even in North Korea the chains are gradually loosening.

While in China political power is centralized in the communist party, Chinese society is fairly open and "westernized," through exposure to western movies, music and other pop cultural influences. Shows like 'Chinese Idol' and 'The Voice' are popular in China, just as they are here.

How serious and uptight can a country that releases a badly reviewed female-driven knock-off of 'The Hangover' starring Mike Tyson be, really? All Chinese-released movies are sanctioned if not financed by Beijing via government-owned corporations.

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The Chinese are happy under one-party rule. To them, it's easier to get things done when power is centralized. Can we blame them? Just look at how our two-part system has become, riven by dissent, paralysis and gridlock. So inefficient and ineffective.

Thresher01 Supporting Member of TMP01 Jan 2019 12:58 p.m. PST

"So inefficient and ineffective".

As our brilliant forefathers wished, of which I approve.

One need only look to the state of California to see how "an efficient government" works, and the madness that comes from that.

28mm Fanatik01 Jan 2019 5:40 p.m. PST

If things are more effective and efficient we would have a border wall by now.

gregmita201 Jan 2019 11:33 p.m. PST

"China has 4x the US population. Why wouldn't China eventually have an economy 4x the size of the US?"

Except China's economic growth is export-driven. Since China has the largest population in the world, it'll be hard to find another country to take China's exports and scale its economy up to that size…

"Just look at how our two-part system has become, riven by dissent, paralysis and gridlock. So inefficient and ineffective."

Is it "efficient" or "effective" when your enemy, who is a top general, "commits suicide" while under house arrest? Both, neither?

28mm Fanatik02 Jan 2019 9:44 a.m. PST

Is it "efficient" or "effective" when your enemy, who is a top general, "commits suicide" while under house arrest? Both, neither?

Point taken, but I'd wager that even if the POTUS is a more conventional Republican, the ineffectiveness and inefficiency would still exist. The deep divisions in this country long predated Trump. China has no such divisions. Our system is predisposed to make effecting changes or getting things done extremely hard without near unanimous support.

Lion in the Stars02 Jan 2019 6:00 p.m. PST

Yeah, in order to continue growing China's economy, they need to shift from making stuff for everyone else to making things for themselves. That should be self-evident.

China is already seeing companies with labor-intensive products go to cheaper places, though a related issue is quality control, or lack thereof. In the 1950s, "Made in Japan" meant "cheap junk". By the 1970s, "Made in Japan" meant "good quality for a really low price". Now, "Made in Japan" means "good quality but you pay for it."

Until China addresses the QA/QC issue as a culture, they're going to continue losing the labor-intensive businesses.

gregmita202 Jan 2019 11:40 p.m. PST

China has no such divisions. Our system is predisposed to make effecting changes or getting things done extremely hard without near unanimous support.

Maybe I wasn't clear before, but I was referring to General Zhang Yang's suicide. China's divisions are far more vicious and violent, which is why its leaders think totalitarianism is necessary. That's not an efficient or effective path in the medium or long term.

Until China addresses the QA/QC issue as a culture, they're going to continue losing the labor-intensive businesses.

It's not just quality management. The Chinese government seems unwilling to allow a true consumer society to develop, which would solve a lot of the problem with dependence on exports. Without opening up its economy and politics a lot more, China is bound to the current government-directed economy which is only good at industrial production. This is a self-reinforcing trap that will cap China's growth no matter what.

28mm Fanatik03 Jan 2019 10:04 a.m. PST

Ah, I see. China's anti-corruption laws on taking brides are excessive by western standards. Had the general not taken his own life he would have been sentenced to death. The punishment does not fit the crime, but it does serve as future deterrent.

gregmita203 Jan 2019 11:37 p.m. PST

Pretty much all Chinese officials are actually corrupt. These trials and executions are really part of a power struggle to eliminate enemies. Xi became the undisputed leader through these "anti-corruption" campaigns, which conveniently removed his political opponents.

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