"What are the chances?" Topic

My Border Reivers game uses a "Save" value also as a Morale value. You throw one die for each soldier in the group against their save value. It is hard for big groups to fail, but you need to split up to carry out tasks.

Tonight's play test featured a Captain (passing on a 4+) plus seven soldiers (passing on a 5+). So long as any ONE passes the group passes the morale check.

Chance of failure: 2.9%

Some times it just ain't your night!

Panic is infectious. So are bad die rolls.

Two weeks ago I rolled seven 1's in a row. What are the odds of that?

wrgmr1,

If it was a d6 you were rolling, I believe the answer is:

1 in 279,936

But I'm not statistician

Odds of seven 1's in a row rolling d6s:

0.00036% (1 out of 279936).

I was in a game in which 13 out of 16 figures rolled 1's on their melee combat rolls and died. The remaining 3 figures fled because of failed morale (losing 13 out of 16 of your colleagues will do that to you).

Then the next 16 figures went into the fray: 13 or 14 of them died by rolling 1's and 2's. And the 2 to 3 survivors fled because of morale failure.

I looked at that and said to myself: "What a waste of good German infantry!"

And then I suddenly realized: "Oh crap! Now my flank and rear guard troops are the front line!"

And thus I went into a fight where 32 German Schutztruppe had been annihilated – and I had 16 African Auxiliaries. Good morale, rifle-armed, but shot like crap and had no bayonets.

I quickly shared the fate of my German allies.

Sometimes the dice gods hate us! Maybe we didn't sacrifice a good enough stag or collect enough laurel leaves.

My first wargame was "Corinth" a hex and counter game. The gentlemen introducing it to me were very kind. I charged a redoubt and they gave me the "if you think that's a good idea" line.

I threw a bunch of dice – except for two, all 6s. Took the redoubt, game effectively over on turn 2! 14 of 16 maybe? Something like that. Never work with kids or animals.

I was 12 I think.

"Chance of failure: 2.9%"

I prefer rules that let this things pass automaticely. Saves much time.

I prefer rules that let this things pass automaticely. Saves much time.

Yeah, but sometimes your awesome giantkiller army meets the local militia and just…collapses… even in real life.

(Case in point: Last Sunday's Titans v Colts game . But I digress.)

At least in a tabletop game it's hilarious when it happens!

Mark,

Border reivers game? Are the rules available anywhere?

Cheers,

Jon

2.9 percent is not crazy long odds. It's comparable to rolling snake eyes – 2.7

Duncan

A fairly impressive one came from one of my Imperial Outriders just the other week- with their repeater handgun they get to shoot again if their previous shot hit, up to 6 shots per figure. Needing 6's to hit meant I'd be lucky to get a single hit with only one figure shooting, but with a flurry of 6's the Last Outrider managed 5 hits in a row (missing with the 6th shot!), perforating to perfection the perfidious dark elves downrange! Odds of 1 in 7776 I think?

Never tell me the odds!

@22nd Foot:

The rules are "Dish of Spurs" – at least that's the working title. Large skirmish. Players command a couple dozen figs each, designed with large multi-player games in mind (still works fine 1 on 1).

I need to do some more work before it's ready to be seen in public…..

Mark,

Sounds intriguing. Please let us know when they're ready for "prime time."

Best,

Jon

We always remember the unexpected, surprising results. The thousand times we roll the expected results are forgotten. Roll enough dice and you will get some really unbelievable series of rolls

hiya

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Two weeks ago I rolled seven 1's in a row. What are the odds of that?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

About 50:50, wargaming dice refuse to obey the laws of probability.

DB

Thanks PzGeneral!

evilgong – HA Ha!

Some nights that many 1's in a row is normal, so you are correct. I just wish I knew what I did to the dice gods that pissed them off.

wrgmr1, to paraphrase Voltaire and Candide, "In our games, it is necessary to crush a few dice from time to time, to encourage the others!"

For you theatre lovers:

YouTube link

This scene from "Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead" makes exactly the point that the chances of rolling all 6s are *exactly* the same as rolling any other specific combination of numbers, statistically speaking. Each unique combination is extremely unlikely, but we will always get one of them. Why not all 6s or 1s?

My statistician colleagues may laugh at me, but I have learned something from them over the years…