"Would Russia Attack U.S. Forces In Syria?" Topic

"CNN is reporting that Russia is threatening to attack U.S. forces based in Al Tanf, eastern Syria, but don't call it fake news. A Russia-U.S. exchange of gunfire isn't as crazy as it might sound.

As reported last December, Russia retains a longstanding interest in forcibly dislodging U.S. forces from various bases in northern and eastern Syria. Of course, Russian President Vladimir Putin knows that to overtly target and attack American citizens in Syria would open his nation up to a world of trouble. At a minimum, it would mean significant new sanctions on the Russian economy from the U.S. and its global allies. But it might also lead to U.S. military retaliation of a kind that would cause havoc for Russia's military. While Russia's military is potent in proximity to its home territory, it is far less powerful in and around Syria. The Russian naval flotilla deployed off Syria's coast, for example, would be exceptionally vulnerable to any U.S. retaliatory strikes…."
Main page
link

Amicalement
Armand

Anything after "CNN is reporting" has to be considered questionable.

But to the point of the article; it answered its own question. It "ended badly" the last time Russian mercs came in close proximity to US forces. There is a new sheriff in town who would like ‘a good relationship' with the Russians but is not afraid to use force if necessary.

How did that go the last time? Oh, I know, about 300 dead Russian "mercenaries" and a 34 mile "de-confliction zone".

I think actually attacking is a bit different from saying they might.
It would be extremely rash imo.
Trump is impulsive and unpredictable.
I don't see it'd be worth the risk.

(smile)

Amicalement
Armand

Well, they want payback for the last fight, so, I put the odds at 2:1 as being a yes.

It would be an easy way to judge US interest in a fight. It's still in a conflict where they can say "oops, didn't know" instead of something more blatant.

I think that it's impossible. Unless it happens, then it was inevitable.

Anyone taking shots at US troops is going to get smashed. Has nothing to do with politics, everything to do with our basic military responses.

The Russian military looks good when going up against Islamic crazies. Going up against the US military is another thing. Reference the 300 merc's who died earlier this year. Not sure I would test this current President.

The current POTUS already ceded Syria to Russia for all intents and purposes. After Idlib falls (a matter of when, not if), there will be no rebels left to oppose Assad.

Emotions aside, I doubt that an attack on US forces, involving Russian forces in Syria will take place.
First, Russia was transferring the warnings about what is going on around Al Tanf.
Second, even that "strong response" of 100 paratroopers dropped in Syria on maneuvre is laughable, we're not talking about pro-US fighters, but real forces – i.e rules of engagement apply.
Third, bombing the crap put of mercenaries having a couple of obsolete howitzers, no air or artillery support is not a big deal. While there were a lot of hot head reactions after the accident on social network to involve real forces, Russian command understands that an engagement using "official" troops from both sides might lead to something nasty. It was like an event in Bosnia airport years ago – US could have easily dealt with Russian paratroopers, who captured the field, but there were considerations on what would happen next.

However…when rebels and ISIS will be dealt with, there will be a question about what is this base doing on a Syrian territory uninvited. There will be diplomatic pressure, and there might be accidents, involving unidentified pro-Iranian fighters to help the negotiations. Not that I like this kind of development, but it is very likely to happen.

Well said Barin….

Amicalement
Armand

There's always the other option too, of third parties in the region attacking, and making it look like the Russians/Americans did it.

Based upon this article, it certainly sounds like a Russian attack is a possibility:

link

Everything is a possibility, but in this case, with a low probability.
Washington Post has a more balanced report on the same stuff happening around the base:
link