"The Double and Triple Whammy about to hit Wargaming." Topic

Sometimes the real world does effect our Wargame fantasy world.

Three effects are driving hobby costs for many wargamers up at a dramatic rate that will continue.

One is a general inflation that is effecting all goods, but particularly non-essential items. The total effect is still unclear but any trip to the store will reveal that. Ask your wife. The "official" 1.9% rate is somewhat deceptive as it averages the number, not revealing certain sub sector's true cost increases.

The current monetary policies of the US are deliberately creating the weak dollar in an attempt to address the balance of trade issues in a very crude way. You have seen the beginning of price increases on imported goods (such as liquor, cars, clothing, some foods, AND UK military miniatures) but that will be increasingly apparent in the next few months, expect increases of 10% to over 20% USD in many wargame figure lines and goods. Board Wargames and rules that are printed overseas will also see price increases at a rapid rate.

But even more immediate is the rate of exchange with foreign currencies. The value of the Pound has increased about 11% in the last year vs the dollar. Last March it was 1.23, today it is 1.40. The overall effect of foreign goods price increases plus the falling exchange rate has made items such as figures noticeably more expensive over the last year.

In the case of the UK, Brexit will only exacerbate these issues. Foreign travel will be a bit pricey this coming year for Americans.

Immmediate effect will be a switch to US wargame suppliers, if they do not rely on foreign resources, and rules that use fewer figures (Skirmish) or smaller scales. The hobby is very dependent on foreign resources. Given that the US wargame manufacturing base is less diverse in its products, suppliers, and periods served, that may prove problematic as well. Some will also argue qualitative issues, as well as the dominance of a very few US manufacturers that will also lead to pricing jumps. Tariff fever could also take a toll.

It's going to be an interesting year for wargaming.

All I will say on the topic of global finance and trade is that if current policies lead to global depression or recession the LAST thing I will be worrying about is the effect it will have on my gaming.

Perhaps it is a "Canary in the mine?" Agreed its the least of our challenges, but this is a Wargaming forum, no?

BTW you've got until midnight today to buy Perry Metals at the current rate; up by 50p at that hour. (no this is not an April Fool's joke).

Lol ask your wife? What? Have we regressed to 1957?

How will brexit make it worse for Americans? A weaker pound means you get more to spend.

Putting aside your tunnel visioned, us focused economic position, the real point you should perhaps take from this is how poor US figure sculptors and companies are. You don't hear us brits whining about expensive import prices for warlord, perry's, Victrix, gripping beast, the list goes on… there's just no US companies offering quality stuff people want to buy! sort out your gaming industry offerings and exchange rates become irrelevant.

On my list of things not to worry about, this would certainly be near the top.

Jaztez nailed it.

None of Bob's falling sky will impact me. I've bought
US only for about 10 years now. 100 % of my gaming
figures were provided by US firms.

They make really nice figures in the UK – but there are
one or two US companies who provide quality figures at
a good price.

I think jaztez substantially misread the note.

It is US oriented because I am located here and the trade effects I described will be on US citizens. I said ask your wife because in many families the person most acutely aware of store pricing remains the women. Ask a man prices on anything but cars, sporting goods, and booze and he's usually less than on target.

I pointed out the US hobby is very dependent on Foreign resources and less diverse, there are also obvious qualitative issues. I don't arguable that. All the more a lessening of imports will be felt here.

As for Brexit having an effect on UK prices both internally or on exports, I will only note that the current argument between The UK and it's old partners is largely what PENALTIES will be paid for their departure. To think this won't have an effect, largely negative, on imports and export based businesses is truly tunnel visioned. I can't see any way it can't. Neither can most of your economists. Most of your politicians are trying to find a way to minimize the downsides, not many talking about a glorious boom time ahead. Hell, Ireland can't even decide what the border means!

As for any hobby's importance in the great scheme of things, it is certainly minimal, and having a good income can protect one from most of life's travails, but for some wargamer in the US with limited income, being aware of a possible impact might make for better decisions, or at least be aware as to why his hobby budget doesn't go as far as it did.

Exchange rate for the UK pound at 1.23 was a result of a significant drop due to Brexit. Using that as a base for an example of the impact of current US policies is rather moot.

The increase in prices for figures and other gaming supplies from the UK would appear to be more an effect of Brexit – whether due to reduced sales or increasing commodity prices as the US economy has improved (although prices are still well below post-Fukushima 1evels).

And it is all cyclical – not many years ago the rate was $1.55 USD.

"I pointed out the US hobby is very dependent on Foreign resources and less diverse, there are also obvious qualitative issues. I don't arguable that. All the more a lessening of imports will be felt here."

Yes, the options are either to cut back or step up and fill the void and make some money while you are at it. You know, someone should found a country and economic system based on that principle.

"As for Brexit having an effect on UK prices both internally or on exports, I will only note that the current argument between The UK and it's old partners is largely what PENALTIES will be paid for their departure."

And as all the other countries in the European Union repeatedly do, the UK can agree to and sign off on the terms and then simply claim they cannot afford to pay the PENALTIES. The rest of the EU will have to cover that bill too. Ah, yet another failed/failing experiment in Socialism.

Sky is falling.

About 6 month ago I wanted some figures. The total shipped price from the UK was less that the cost of the figures alone from he US.

Same same on a book not that long ago. If anything imports are undervalued and need a little boost.

Vince

I'm not saying the sky is falling!!! I am saying you're going to be paying more, perhaps noticeably more, for overseas produced (wargame) products in the US.

Anyone argue that?

It has nothing to do with socialism, or the inherent quality of UK miniatures vs. US. Brexit will have an exacerbating effect, but, at core, it is simply US monetary policy ( weak dollar, potential tariffs and duties, and general confusion of the markets) waged on the greater economic front that will have a backwash everywhere, including in the hobby.

Goragrad, the reason I used the 1.23 number is that it was almost exactly one year ago. I bought a ton of Perry Samurai at that time for what is, as of midnight tonight, about a 20% discount. Sarissa, Warlord, and others are all in the midst of or evaluating repricing in US dollars.

Given current US monetary policy, all foreign products will rise in price as the dollar gets weaker, which is what they say they want to do, and inflationary pressures coupled with foreign steps,such as Brexit, and potential retaliatory tarriffs, will compound the issue. As Brexit acquires some actual traction, which it hasn't yet, pricing issues on import/ export items will be more noticeable.

Vince, six months ago doesn't count. Now does. If you think imports are undervalued, just wait another six months!

In the meantime, if you're going to buy any imported products-do it immediately! Do not wait! Be happy if you have a nice mountain of unpainted imported figures, they'll be more valuable every day!

You know, I realized yesterday that apart from the armies already painted and on the shelves, in the aftermath of Cold Wars I have here, complete both sides and ready to paint
--6mm SYW Prussians and Austrians
--10mm ACW
--1/72 WOTR
--1/72 WWII

I'm OK for troops. Find me a cure for the opponents shortage.

The best cure, Bob, might be moving to a more common scale especially a scale that is visible to the unaided eye! 🤓

The current dollar/pound exchange rate is closer to what it was before the Brexit vote, and what it had been since about 2008. Before 2008 the rate was closer to $1.65 USD to the £0.00 GBP What you have had is a 20 month period when stuff from the UK was unusually cheap for Americans, things are now getting back to normal. Price rises on UK goods in the last 2 years have been due to this fall in value in the £0.00 GBP As for the impact of Brexit for the UK, the most certain one will be that we will get stiffed by the Post Office for paying VAT on imported stuff from the EU, just as we do now for goods from outside the EU. Anything else is anyone's guess.

The price of shipping over the past few years has been more of a killer than inflation. Not expecting things to change in the future…

Exchange rates go up and down. If I want/need the figures, I'll pay.

From an Australian perspective, the killer for me with US products, of which there are many fine examples, is the insanely expensive US shipping/mailing costs – these are just mad compared to those from the UK!

The good news is that there is now an incentive to attack the mountain of unpainted lead. The pile is ahead by 2 or 3 years.

Future planned purchases are from some US firms whose goods are manufactured abroad. They'll probably go up, but I don't buy all that much these days anyway.

Really, I have all I need. Saying I "need" a special new unit is just not true. I'd "like" it, but I have suitable proxies. (At least that's what I tell myself when I'm pretending I'm rational.)

"You don't hear us brits whining about expensive import prices" Actually I have seen a lot of complaining about the cost of importing figures! As I understand it Royal Mail adds the cost of postage to the value of the imported goods when determining duties owed.

Rather than a weak dollar, look at increased economic activity driving up commodities.

Scrap steel is back up to 85 a ton vs the 45 a year and a half ago. Not nearly the 140 a ton post-Fukushima.

Back to the 1.23 rate, in '08 it was 1.25 – cyclical.

Figure prices will go up.
Dog bites man.
Film at 11:00.

I lived in the UK for eight years; I would have been happy with an exchange rate of 1.4. At its worse, it hit about 2 to one. Very painful. And I'm living in Germany now, with a Euro rate that has gone up in the last year.

Exchange rates routinely rise and fall base on a large variety of variables, and not all quantifiable. I do expect to pay more for UK-based products but after living in Europe for almost 15 years, and being paid in dollars, you just roll with it, as we do in the states.

Altfritz, any duties due include all shipping charges. This is standard in all countries from my experience working in Customs and Excise. The gripe with the Post Office is that they add their own charge of £8.00 GBP for "handling" the paperwork and allegedly paying the VAT before collecting it from you so you can get your parcel. In practice they won't pay anything to HMRC until they have been paid by the recipient of the parcel and you have no option to deal with the paperwork yourself.

Inflation hits wages too, price points rising are only a concern of you're on a fixed income that doesn't change with inflation.

Fortunately I have enough figures stored up that need painted to ride out the storm.

Well, I can always cruise ebay to see if I need something, or wait for some sales, or just see what happens and wait it out while I am painting the 900+ figures (28mm) and 1200+ figures (15mm) I have waiting patiently to be painted (some of them have been primed since 1993)….

Lol. So … is the sky falling then? :)

As long as I have way more unpainted than painted … I have to say it isn't falling on me.

Dan

Having been on the wholesale and retail side of the market since 1983, 35 years, I have heard about all of these issues in the past. Something always happens to change the dynamics. So, we are still playing.

One example in regards to figure cost due to the rise in material costs, can be found in the 15mm casting costs in the late 1980s. At that time the cost of a 15mm casting actually exceeded 45 cents with several companies pushing 50 cents each. Then a company hit the market with an incredible price of $15 USD for 100 castings. Sure the bag had some mis-casts in it but the total values could not be ignored. As a result the price of 15mm castings dropped all the way down to the 25-28 cent range.
The same will happen again.

Yes there is inflation but war gamers are older and should be making a lot more per hour than when they started as a teenager or 20 something. So the higher cost for gaming will still be in the same if not less budget amount spent on the hobby.

Other examples are also easy to find. So do not worry. If you want to play in the hobby, it is still possible.

Wargaming is my most affordable hobby by a long shot. I've easily spent more on one decent riflescope and mount than I have on wargaming figures and terrain in the last year!

A slight cost increase is honestly immaterial for luxury goods.

"The Double and Triple Whammy…"
Thanks for the news flash, chicken little.

Sorry, that came out a bit more "snarky" than I intended.

Just scanning some 'older' posts and came across this one.
It brings to mind someone I know that is fond of saying: "Just you wait, somethings coming."

I never reply to them but think;
"No kidding? Its called LIFE. Of course "something" is always coming. War (mans favorite habit), a natural disaster, a gov't imposing a new tariff or trade embargo on another nation."

I have to strongly agree with *Parzival

On my list of things NOT to worry about, this would certainly be near the top.

As now being one of many that have reached the "fixed income" age.
The 'worst' that would happen regarding my hobby. I'll have to Dig Out miniatures that (like many of you) have been 'buried' in boxes or shelved so far back in the closet, it will take a Safari guide to help us find them.

Just 'roll with it', All Things Pass.

I have heard different doomsday predictions about the hobby since the 1970s. Around 1985 the cost of a 15mm casting had risen to over 42 cents a foot before falling the next year back to 16 cents a foot.
Board games are doomed due to computer games.
Different issues arise and are handled one way or another.