"Xi Jinping Says He Will Not Tolerate A Divided China!" Topic

"The speech was a strong warning against any attempt at separatism from places like Taiwan and Hong Kong."
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Maybe the comment is really being directed at all the "Not My Chairman" protesters* around the world. A warning, perhaps, to not stir up trouble back home?

"Xi Jinping became president in 2013 and now looks likely to lead China indefinitely, after the National People's Congress (NPC) – a rubber-stamp parliamentary session that meets once a year – voted to remove a two-term limit on the presidency from the constitution.
He is now considered the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, the founder of modern China, and has further cemented his position by moving many of his key allies in to leadership roles during the NPC."

Anyway, he's probably right.

1) He clearly won't allow it, and risk looking weak and unable to rule his people; and
2) No one in the world will dare lift a finger for the freedom of Taiwan or Hong Kong, and risk ruining the sweet deal they get from Communist China's techie goods and other innumerable trinkets

Dan
* TMP link

It's apparently a reaction to the US's new position to allow officials to visit Taiwan.

China and Russia tend to see the West (the US and EU) as meddlers in their domestic affairs and fomenting unrest and dissent within their populace. Because they consider themselves as competing political models to the western liberal world order, they know the effects of western "cultural pollution" and "soft power" all too well (e.g. Tian An Men and the Maidan movement).

In the past, before the west cozied up with China as a major trading partner, we didn't have to worry about them pouring their new wealth into an ever strengthening & modernization of their military. We helped create this bully and one of these days we or our children will have to deal with it with more than détente or looking the other way or wishing it would just go away.

Meh! I wouldn't pay too much attention to it. Just the words meant for internal consumption.

"Meh! I wouldn't pay too much attention to it. Just the words meant for internal consumption."

Lol. Famous last words from many others in the past.

Dan

Famous last words from many others in the past.

catchphrases are no substitute for an amphibious capacity.

Until the Chinese have the lift to move an army across the Taiwan Straits, then, yes, it is just words. And will remain so for the foreseeable future.

Sure. What was I thinking? It can never happen.

Dan
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The status quo with Taiwan can hold as long as there is no UDI.

Much as they'd like full Independence, I think Taiwan will continue to choose de facto independence over ruinous war. And as long as there is no UDI, China can afford to wait. They get militarily and economically stronger relative to Taiwan with each passing decade, and are nothing if not patient.

Hong Kong, I am afraid, is lost. The best my beloved second home can hope for is the Basic Law to protect some of their rights while China slowly digests them. It may take another 100 years, but Hong Kong will be fully absorbed into Mainland culture, identity, and – sadly – language.

I keep hearing that Taiwan is relatively safe from Communist China as long as they don't issue a Unilateral Declaration Of Independence.

Well … Taiwan keeps saying that 1) they were the Republic of China (ROC) long before the PRC came into being and that 2) they have never been under Communist China's rule. So they say they have no need to issue any formal Declaration of Independence.

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Following that logic I kinda have to agree with Taiwan. It is the remnant of the Republic of China (ROC), the only part that the People's Republic never took over. They were always apart from the PRC government.

It would be like the US telling England not to act like an an independent nation. England would never issue an UDI. It wouldn't have to. They were not conquered by the US. Yes they used to be part of the same empire once, but it was the US who broke away and founded its own independent republic afterwards.

Of course, logic has nothing to do with anything these days.

Dan

I agree with Dan. Most people do a very poor job of predicting the future behavior of other nations. Who anticipated the Red Chinese invading Korea on behalf of North Korea? Who anticipated their war against Vietnam after the US left? Who anticipated their artificial islands in an effort to grab the South China Sea? How many casualties are they willing to risk to unite with Taiwan? How many nations would talk tough and talk about sanctions and once Taiwan fell, go back to business as usual within a year?

Mike Bunkermeister Creek
bunkermeister.blogspot.com

Who anticipated the Red Chinese invading Korea on behalf of North Korea?

Many did, actually. UN forces led by the US pushed the North Koreans north across the 38th Parallel and MacArthur would have gone all the way to the Chinese border if the Chinese sat on their haunches and did nothing.

As for Taiwan, China would have invaded already if it wanted to anytime over the last 20+ years.

Most every one Mac on down failed to anticipate the Chinese attack. Mac would not have gone to the Yalu because that was understood to be China's red line and Truman was worried that Mac had his silly head on even before promising that the boys would be home by Christmas.
The Chinese don't think in the same way as we softy westerners. Which is why we describe them as inscrutable, I suppose.

China in the past was worried what a war with the USA over Taiwan would do to their their fragile economy. However, the world is changing. Now that the USA seems to be withdrawing in from foreign affairs, the USA is establishing what is appears to be protectionist trade policies, and that China is a force of trade in the APAC regoin (and the rest of the world), I would be worried if I were Taiwan.

At least right now, the US has made it a point of national honor that the Communists will only take Taiwan over the burning wrecks of the 7th Fleet.

The US just recently floated the idea of leasing F15C's to Taiwan and just changed policy to allow US officials to visit Taiwan.

If anything, the US foreign policy is all over the place. I would not describe us as withdrawing from world affairs so much as displaying completely and utterly confusing policy to our allies and enemies alike. Whether that's crazy like a fox or just plain crazy is anyone's guess.

At one point we used to know who our allies were, long before the PRC came into existence. Then we conveniently chose to forget.

Dan

CC, the US told Mao back in 1949 or so to go finish his civil war.

Sadly, by the time Mao got all his troops and sealift sorted out, some Stalin-backed frackwit by the name of Kim kicked off an attempted takeover of Korea. Cue wailing about domino theory, and a strongly worded statement from the US that if Mao wanted to take the island of Formosa, he'd have to go through the 7th Fleet to get it.

Yes, there has been a lot of ebb and flow in how we have treated the ROC, an our fulfillment of promises has been very lacking with some of our administrations. But after 1979 the Taiwan Relations Act carried over a lot of the promises stipulated in the earlier Taiwan-US Mutual Defense Treaty.

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Just last year we approved a new $1.42 USD billion arms deal with Taiwan and more are in the works this year.

With Xi who must be obeyed taking over most of the SCS, and claiming more of Taiwan and even Japan's EEZ, it's clear that he won't be denied. There's simply no one in that part of the world with the ability to pressure or fight China out of backing out of its ridiculous territorial expansions.

I'm sure that Taiwan fears they might get traded somehow for the SCS.

It's gonna get very interesting. That's not an if, it's simply a matter of when.

Dan

I agree with you Dan that is not a matter of if but a matter of when. The problem is that when it comes to diplomatic affairs when things get "very interesting" it means the military will probably be engaged. This scares the crap out of me not only for the global ramifications but for very personal ones: my kids (and other people's kids) can wind up on the front lines.

There's an old Chinese curse that applies in my opinion: 'May you be cursed to live in exciting times.'

It would be like the US telling England not to act like an an independent nation

Surprse, surprise, England is not an independent nation. Not yet, anyway. And that is not meant to suggest that it should or shouldn't be.

Deephorse, sorry, I meant to say Great Britain.

Private Matter, I didn't meant to imply that it would be fun or exciting. If it sounded like I did I apologize. The Cuban Missile Crisis was interesting, because it truly captured our attention, but no one sane could have enjoyed those tense moments.

Dan

Private Matter: "There's an old Chinese curse that applies in my opinion: 'May you be cursed to live in exciting times.'"

Just great. While reading/watching the news this morning I couldn't get your comment out of my head!

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Dan

'It would be like the US telling England not to act like an an independent nation. England would never issue an UDI. It wouldn't have to.'

England is not in Independent and does not claim to be. It is part of the United Kingdom. If they were to declare independence, it would cut Scotland and Northern Ireland loose.

Taiwan has never claimed independence from the Republic of China, which claims sovereignty over all of China. The official capital of the ROC is Nanjing.

Many folks do not understand that Taiwan and the Republic of China are not the same thing. The constitution of the ROC explicitly contradicts that Taiwan is in any way independent. It is not a matter of the USA recognising a claim. They make no such claim.

The PRC can live with the ROC claiming independence. They've done so for decades. But not Taiwan. Asserting that Taiwan is independent of China (ROC or PRC) would make the material hit the fan.

Both the ROC and the PRC agree that Taiwan is one province of a united China (the ‘One China' policy which is the cornerstone of Mainland- Taiwan relations). Maintaining that fiction has maintained and continues to maintain the peace.

Whatisitgood4

I made the corrections above. It was GB.

And if the US had claimed sovereignty over all of GB, the crown would have never accepted it or felt the need to issue a Declaration of Independence from the US.

Likewise Taiwan has never been part of the PRC. It is the only part of the ROC left and has never been taken by the PRC. Why in the world would Taiwan have to issue a Declaration of Independence then, from a power they never capitulated to? Honestly, where would be the logic in that?

Dan

@CC: All that US Aid and Defense is still presuming that Taiwan doesn't declare independence from China. And one of the Taiwanese political parties wants to declare independence.

While I agree that from Taiwan's perspective they never 'lost' to the PRC, for all intents and purposes they did lose when they were pushed out of the mainland.

You are really not getting this.

Whatever point you think you are making, it is a simple fact that not one single nation on Earth asserts what you are asserting: that Taiwan in an independent country – not even the ROC.

To become independent, Taiwan would need to declare independence from the ROC, not the PRC. The ROC would need to dissolve itself, or change its Constitution radically, because the current one insists that Taiwan is one Province of China.

Until that happens, both sides, and the USA, agree there is One China – and that is what the PRC is insisting does not change.

Declaring independence from the PRC is not and never has been an issue. The ROC has never recognised the PRC's authority to govern any part of China, be it Taiwan or Hebei.

For Taiwan to declare it is a seperate nation would be a political Earthquake though – even though they enjoy de facto independence.

Whatsitgoodfor: "To become independent, Taiwan would need to declare independence from the ROC, not the PRC. The ROC would need to dissolve itself, or change its Constitution radically"

Thanks. You are exactly right.

And, to avoid any confusion, instead of "Taiwan" I should use "ROC" or "Taipei" (the way we use "DC" to refer to the seat of our nation's government, and not necessarily the municipality).

The fact that Taiwan is just about all that's left of the ROC makes the two terms (Taiwan and ROC) look as though they might be one in the same, when in fact they are not.

Dan

Aside from Taiwan, the rest of the territory held by the ROC consists simply on a handful of tiny islands (marked in red on these maps).

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Dan

@Whatisitgoodforatwork: I know that.

But there is a political party in Taiwan that is pushing for declaring independence from the PRC.

This is the position of the ROC, specially now, after Tsai Ing-wen of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party won election last year:

"Taiwan's government hit back, saying it was a reality that the Republic of China, the island's formal name, was a sovereign country and that no matter what China said it could not change this fact."

"Speaking in Parliament …newly appointed Taiwan Premier William Lai said he was a "political worker who advocates Taiwan independence", but that it already was an independent country called the Republic of China and so had no need to declare independence."

"Taiwanese officials have said previously that there is no need to declare independence, as the Republic of China is already an independent country, though its territory only covers Taiwan, a few offshore islands close to China and some in the South China Sea."

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Being pro-Independence does not mean that they see a need for a formal Declaration of Independence from Communist China, though the ROC might still feel the need to issue at anytime a reaffirmation of their own sovereignty and of their continued independence. However, they already seem to reaffirm that fact yearly, every January 1st, when they celebrate the founding of the Republic of China (ROC) in 1912.

Dan

Wel, well, well.

At least we know what Emperor Xi is afraid of … Western freedoms:

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The "useful idiots" (Lenin's term, not mine) among us can remain in denial, or not, but there's clearly no place for them in Xi's world. So they might want to stop defending him and his ambitions already.

Dan
PS. Oops. I meant to post this on the China President For Life thread:
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