Editor in Chief Bill | 17 Mar 2018 2:35 p.m. PST |
What is your guess on how many people in the world play historical wargames on tabletops with rulers and dice and miniature figures? Not boardgames or card games or computer games. Actual figures on landscaped tabletops. |
Major William Martin RM | 17 Mar 2018 2:52 p.m. PST |
I'd guess me + a few others. What do I win? |
Legion 4 | 17 Mar 2018 2:55 p.m. PST |
I used to do pretty much all historical both minis and board … But I've gone to the far side for the passed decade or so > Sci-fi ! |
TMPWargamerabbit | 17 Mar 2018 3:27 p.m. PST |
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coopman | 17 Mar 2018 3:45 p.m. PST |
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Cacique Caribe | 17 Mar 2018 3:50 p.m. PST |
I used to be one. And shall be again. Dan |
saltflats1929 | 17 Mar 2018 4:14 p.m. PST |
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BrockLanders | 17 Mar 2018 5:44 p.m. PST |
I do nothing but historical, WW2, ACW, Ancients. It seems like there should be a lot of historical gamers out there due to the sheer volume and variety of product available out there as compared to the past, though I could be wrong. |
Bashytubits | 17 Mar 2018 5:58 p.m. PST |
More than you think but less than Fantasy, Sci fi. I play all of these but I definitely am a Historical gamer. |
Herkybird | 17 Mar 2018 5:59 p.m. PST |
More than one would imagine, less than one hoped. |
14th NJ Vol | 17 Mar 2018 6:07 p.m. PST |
3. I'm in a car driving home from Twistercon there are 3 historical gamers in this car |
Ed Mohrmann | 17 Mar 2018 6:50 p.m. PST |
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Old Contemptibles | 17 Mar 2018 7:01 p.m. PST |
Our Yahoo! Group has 139 members that we can chip in. link |
Old Contemptibles | 17 Mar 2018 7:03 p.m. PST |
Maybe not as many as Fantasy and Sci-Fi but I bet historical gamers have more disposable income to spend on their hobby. |
zoneofcontrol | 17 Mar 2018 7:17 p.m. PST |
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McWong73 | 17 Mar 2018 7:23 p.m. PST |
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Bede19002 | 17 Mar 2018 8:11 p.m. PST |
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evilgong | 17 Mar 2018 8:26 p.m. PST |
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21eRegt | 17 Mar 2018 8:48 p.m. PST |
If they plan it, I will play. But by choice I only do historicals with a half dozen full-time players and a half dozen peripherals. |
Oberlindes Sol LIC | 17 Mar 2018 9:24 p.m. PST |
How much overlap is there among historical, science fiction, and fantasy miniatures gamers? I know people who do all three. I tend to concentrate on science fiction, but happily play historical and fantasy games when they're offered. It's a difficult question. How many miniatures gamers of all types combined exist is another question. I think we'd have to do some research, such as reviewing commercial production figures and convention attendance, to draw a reasonable conclusion. |
Bunkermeister | 17 Mar 2018 9:24 p.m. PST |
I suspect 100,000 or so. Many of them come and go, and dabble in other things like boardgames, and militaria and such. Mike Bunkermeister Creek bunkermeister.blogspot.com |
Bobgnar | 17 Mar 2018 10:02 p.m. PST |
Do you mean pure historical wargamers with miniatures, not somebody who plays fantasy and historical, or board games and historical miniatures. Some games are more historical than others. For example is Saga a historical game. Is hordes of the thing played only with historical Figures a historical game. Is the Napoleonic era game that is not a re-creation of an actual battle, considered historical? |
Cerdic | 18 Mar 2018 4:00 a.m. PST |
I think there must be more than you would expect. Just look at how many different manufacturers of 28mm historical figures there are… link There must be a fair few buyers to keep all that lot going. Even taking into account the fact that some on that list are very small scale kitchen-table type businesses. Then there are all the players who don't touch 28mm but only do 6mm or 15mm or whatever! |
laptot | 18 Mar 2018 8:01 a.m. PST |
However many, they are dying off quickly. There's a problem in attracting younger players. I suspect one reason has to do with the declining emphasis on History in the high school and collage curriculum. 40K players stop by our club table and ask us what we're playing. "Seven Years War, Prussians vs. Austrians. You're welcome to join us" Blank stare, "Oh." Walk away. |
14Bore | 18 Mar 2018 10:44 a.m. PST |
I am more surprised video games haven't killed of miniatures |
robert piepenbrink | 18 Mar 2018 4:06 p.m. PST |
WHY do we keep doing this? I am officially not interested in any number not accompanied by existing numbers--memberships, attendance and so forth--and reasoning. If you just want random unsupported numbers, roll D10's. |
McLaddie | 18 Mar 2018 7:14 p.m. PST |
"42"? Wait, isn't that the answer to the meaning of the universe? I guess there could be some crossover… Robert Piepenbrink: +2 which makes 44. |
robert piepenbrink | 19 Mar 2018 3:55 a.m. PST |
OK, one example of real analysis for the slow learners. Observed fact: no US city with population above 100,000 without a game shop. Observed fact: churches require a minimum attendance of about 100 to afford a building and full-time pastor. Conclusion: US wargaming population is perhaps 1/1,000 of total population, and thus roughly 300,000. Observed fact: the British wargaming market is about the size of the US market, despite a population roughly 1/3 the size. Conclusion: about another 300,000 wargamers in the UK. Observed facts: TMP membership and Great Wargaming Survey numbers. Total wargamers outside US/UK roughly equal to either one. Conclusion: total wargaming population 900,000--say a range from high six figures to very low seven figures. Historical gamers: of the top 10 "eras" in the Great Wargaming Survay, fantasy and SF held only 2nd, 3rd and 6th place. (That's "SF-not 40K at #2, Fantasy not Age of Sigmar at #3, and WH40K at #6, by the way.) So with "low confidence" I'll say half of all miniature wargamers are historical miniatures players, for a total in the vicinity of 400,000-500,000. Now, would anyone else care to chip in a fact or two? And remember "the plural of anecdote is not data." |
laptot | 19 Mar 2018 6:55 a.m. PST |
Well if WH40K is #6 and Historicals are #1, why are the later generally absent at most wargame/hobby shops (if you don't count FOW?) I don't believe you can find any historicals sold in NYC. A far cry from 40 years back when there was Polks where historicals were basically the only figures until the arrival of D&D which I believe marked the beginning of the down-turn in the interest in historicals among new/young to the hobby. Historicals take a back seat to WH40K at the stores I know of in the American Midwest. The Source in Minneapolis is the only place I know of in the region that has a respectable historical selection and this was not what it used to be. |
Griefbringer | 19 Mar 2018 7:10 a.m. PST |
Observed fact: the British wargaming market is about the size of the US market, despite a population roughly 1/3 the size. I am not able to comment on the relative sizes of the wargaming markets, but the UK population is actually around 1/6 of the US population (not 1/3). |
Old Wolfman | 19 Mar 2018 7:27 a.m. PST |
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UshCha | 19 Mar 2018 8:20 a.m. PST |
Certainly in my experience wargames shops in the UK are based an fantasy (GW) stuff. No self respecting soul would go into one. They cater only for Fan boys and have long since been replaced as a supplier of paint by companies providing better, cheaper and consistent over time paint. Most of the UK market is bases on the Internet, which is why wargames shows are declining. Despite valiant attempts, UK shows have not moved to US style participation shows as their main attraction. On that basis presence of a "wargames" shop in a town will have very limited applicability to the overall number of participants. If I look at our local model shop it deals in paint and mainly 1/35 scale kits so again it may not be a good indicator for the UK. The number of Internet suppliers and a guess at the turnover may be a better indicated but would be VERY approximate. I would show up very poorly as all I buy is paint, as most models are either card (buildings) or PLA Fillament. |
Timbo W | 19 Mar 2018 3:05 p.m. PST |
Number of TMP members = 44,937. This probably includes duplicate accounts, Winston, JtOFM, random departed Frothers, and a certain proportion who are Fantasy or SciFi rather than historical gamers. Probably there's a poll somewhere that gives an idea. Let's guess at 25,000 historical gamers for TMP. So what proportion of historical gamers are TMP members? No idea! Based on a sample of one, ie me, none of my close gaming friends are TMP-ers as far as I know anyway, so say 1 in 10. This ratio is obviously very vague – better estimates anyone?? WAG = 1 in 10, so approx 250,000 historical gamers????? I'd reckon anywhere between 100,000 and 0.5 million. |
robert piepenbrink | 19 Mar 2018 3:07 p.m. PST |
laptot, since the #1 period WAS WWII, I think saying "if you don't count FOW" is unhelpful. (Am I the only one who had to sit through the whole "Great Wargaming Survey" podcast to get actual information?) I've also noticed overall historical miniatures tend to be under-represented in shops. I suspect the diversity of rules and ranges is a major factor. Another one would be that many older wargamers have already built their armies, and a third would be that--not being 12 years old--we can order the stuff ourselves and not be driven to the shop after the allowance is handed out on Saturday. And UshCha, that's exactly why I measured by shop in the US and by sales in the UK. Looks as though rails and the frequency of shows in a high-density country have about wiped out non-GW shops. (Griefbringer is more right than I was, by the way. More or less one Brit for five Americans. Please note I'm assuming more or less equal hobby spending on average. If British wargamers spend less per person per year than Americans, there are probably more wargamers in total.) But guys, if we were talking uniform colors or armor penetration, everyone here would be chiming in with sources and documentation. Why is it when we talk about numbers and percentages of hobbyists suddenly the conversation descends to "well I saw in the shop" or "I talked to a young person once?" |
robert piepenbrink | 19 Mar 2018 3:25 p.m. PST |
Thank you Timbo W! For what it's worth, I like your one in ten guess. Only one miniatures gamer known to me from the outside is also known to me to be a TMP member, so my personal ratio could be even lower--perhaps one in twenty, if that. And we have to allow for the language barrier. Would TMP membership be as common among wargamers in Germany or France? (Yes, they're taught English in school. No, they don't retain it if they don't use it afterward. How good is your calculus? Your chemistry?) I suspect also as a body historical gamers are older, and so are less likely to be up on web sites or answering on-line surveys. But this is the sort of thing which makes political polling as much art as science. We have our sample, but we don't know how honest it is. At best, we can guess at the direction of the bias. |
Old Contemptibles | 19 Mar 2018 3:42 p.m. PST |
What stores have in stock might not be a good indicator. We have actually asked our local game store NOT to stock historical figures except maybe some FOW or BA. Because all the historical gamers already have most of what they need. Most of us order online. The store owner would only get frustrated, lose money and be angry with us for not supporting the store. It is almost impossible to predict what new period any of us will start up. So you can't walk in to a local games store and see little or no historical figures stocked for sale and assume there are not any historical gamers. There are actually about 300 to 400 in town. |
Tom D1 | 20 Mar 2018 8:49 a.m. PST |
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grahambeyrout | 20 Mar 2018 10:37 a.m. PST |
As an aside, does New Kingdom Egyptian versus Late Romans count as Historical or Fantasy. Likewise does my small army from the principality of Keinrat-Hallesbusten which is usually allied with the Hannoverian SYW contingent count as as historical or fantastical. If we take a very rigid view of the definition of historical then I regretfully suspect there are very few historical wargamers. |
ancientsgamer | 20 Mar 2018 11:29 a.m. PST |
Missing a huge market with traditional plastic models and repurposed 1/72 plastic soldiers. Some Michael's stores carry miniatures still. Depends on who works there. A gaming store is an obvious one to look at but comic stores, model shops, craft stores, used markets, thrift stores, etc. are another factor. I used to live in Dover, Delaware. No game shop at the time. No gaming community that I was aware of I had 15mm Napoleonics, 1/72 plastics, Avalon Hill, Prince August Moulds, etc. Didn't know aboit conventions back in the day either. |