"What If The Communists Had Won The Spanish Civil War?" Topic

A communist/republican win in the SCW would have made Spain a possible – even a likely – target for a 1940/41 invasion of Germany, with the probably buildup of British assets to counter that – left alone the Allied would sooner or later use it as a stage of to invade France elsewhere. Then it depends on the outcome. A fast German victory similar to Jugoslavia/Greece would mean that the Battle of the Atlantic dramatically changes in favour of the Axis side, as the Spanish ports are way better protected from British air and closer to the vital lanes. The sea lanes to Malta from Britain via Gibraltar would probably also close down, either by siege & conquest (another possible usage for Dora&Karl) or by airpower.

Another totally different approach could be that a pre "Barbarossa" communist regime might even cave in to the Soviet/German alliance and allow the Germans to use its ports starting 1940, which might have influenced the part of the Soviets later on.

That said, I dare not speculate about post WW2, as the behaviour of the regime IN that war offers so many variables that we need to fix some for a common playing field.

Basileus, you were fine. I was just getting annoyed with people who wanted to explain how saintly the "Republicans" were rather than look at the wargaming potential. There are other sites for politics.

But as to the specific points, it's true the PF government could disclaim most of the massacres, but even by your reckoning, the government was largely made up of parties which committed them, so what democratic elements there were regarded such people and institutions as acceptable coalition partners. "We are not ourselves thugs and murderers, but give us weapons so we can arm those who are" is not really a great sales pitch.

The tragedy of the SCW is not that the "good guys" got stomped, but that while there were decent individuals, there really wasn't a strong political center. There was, in fact, hardly a political center at all. Both Negrin and Unamuno must have felt very lonely.

Yep. Lie with stray dogs, you get their fleas and the diseases they carry.

Dan

Considering that a significant portion of the support for the Nazis was their anti-Communist stance, a Communist government in Spain would have required Hitler to invade.

Rather hard to claim the war against the Soviets was a crusade against Communism if Spain is ignored. Particularly when as noted the military in Slain[sic] would have been still in disarray.

My thoughts exactly.

Though once the Germans (and Vichy French) have invaded Spain, that makes for some ugly fights in the North Atlantic. Gets the submarine bases much further away from the Brits, which makes it harder to kill the Uboats.

Probably see a lot more convoy damage because of that, which would run the very real risk of starving the UK out. I mean, as it was, the UK was down to a couple months supplies in 1942, IIRC.

Just a quick question here about the U-boats …

How much patrolling and hunting did they do around the Strait of Gibraltar during the war?

I seem to recall that the Italians and the Germans failed to capture the Suez Canal. But did U-boat "blocking" of all Allied shipping through Gibraltar cancel out most of what passed through the Suez Canal to/from the UK? Or did the UK find other means to access whatever did pass through the Suez?

Dan

Wait until Chouan finds this thread …..

B

Who?

Dan

Hitler and Stalin were essentially allies from August 1939 until June 1941.
Would it make sense for Hitler to invade Spain simply because it's "Communist", when he has a non agression pact with Stalin? Wouldn't that be a tip-off that the treachery of Barbarossa was imminent?
And invade Spain with Vichy France? Seriously?
Hitler was dumb enough to invade Russia with Britain undefeated in his tear.
Who in history would be dumb enough to invade Russia while simultaneously bogged down in Spain and with Britain undefeated?

Sorry gents. A Republican Spain would be, or should be, something for Hitler to deal with later.

Hitler and Stalin were essentially allies from August 1939 until June 1941.

No, they weren't. They had a pact to define spheres of influence. Spain fell under the area assigned to Germany, i.e. West from the Vistula.

Would it make sense for Hitler to invade Spain simply because it's "Communist", when he has a non agression pact with Stalin? Wouldn't that be a tip-off that the treachery of Barbarossa was imminent?

No. Stalin had more than enough "hints" that Barbarossa was imminent such it was. He choose to reject the information available. An invasion of Communist Spain -what kind of Communism, by the way?- wouldn't have mean a difference. He wanted to believe that he would have another year before the German attack.

Who in history would be dumb enough to invade Russia while simultaneously bogged down in Spain and with Britain undefeated?

Spain in 1939 wasn't Spain in 1808. Even if we like to fantasize about a new guerrilla war, most probably it wouldn't have happened. You need to realize the extreme poverty of Spain in 1939. It was a country so devastated by the Civil War that it struggled to feed her population. Without Argentinian help, Spanish would have starved. I shudder each time my mother remembers the hunger in those years. The Spanish population in 1939 hadn't either the strength nor the will to fight a guerrilla war.

Basileus66: "Without Argentinian help, Spanish would have starved. I shudder each time my mother remembers the hunger in those years"

When I was growing up in Puerto Rico, my aunt Fefín, who was stuck in Asturias visiting relatives when the war broke out, told us some creepy stories too.

Her uncle (the host) told the kids to stop asking what meat they had in their soup. Titi Fefin said it came from traps he had in the field, which he would check every day before sunrise. So, who knows?

Fortunately they lived out in the country and didn't have to deal with a lot of the violence, though it sometimes spilled over. They were raided twice though. Robbed by bandits with arm bands is more like it. Left with almost nothing in the middle of winter.

She said they got sick from drinking "broth" made from hay. Their livestock long gone, the kids (who were often kept hidden) found old hay under the snow and boiled it.

Dan

@CC: haven't seen Chouan on in a while, I'm pretty sure he was a Merchant Marine (so has very dim views of submariners).

If all traffic through Gibraltar was interdicted, that adds about 3 months onto the travel time to go around the Cape. Though anything that could be diverted to the Desert War would probably be there, instead.

My Grandma had some horror stories too. She lost her first child -my mom's brother- to starvation related disease, in early 1940, when the child was a few days shy of his second birthday. If you wanted to see my Grannie angry you only needed to protest because you didn't like food.

My Dad's mom told us how she 'lost' her milk (my father was born just 13 days after the start of the war) and how she was forced to cross Madrid from where she lived to the other point of the city, to get donkey's milk to feed my father.

All people I have spoken with that lived through the war and the post-war periods remembered the hunger more vividly than any other experience they had. And mind that some of them were POWs that passed through Francoist penal system, and had some awful memories of that time. Hunger was central, nonetheless

They never would have won.

Plus if they did win the situation that basileus66 stated above would have been far worst.

Communists just cannot manage anything.

Just look at Venezuela now and you will see what would have happened in Spain, only on a far greater scale.

Yep. Sounds like plausible post-War horror scenario to me, and one that leaves the country wide open for a takeover.

Dan

"This just in:
Generalissimo Francisco Franco is _still_ _dead_"
It _had_ to be said.

Capncarp

Lol. Really? He is dead? Well, so is the Second Republic (DOA by 1939), and yet some people today still won't shut up talking about it.

My grandmother the Marxist lived long to hear the news of his death and rejoice. On the other hand, if my grandfather had lived until 1975 he would have certainly said a prayer for el Caudillo and mourned him for quite some time. Their 11 kids were also split almost right down the middle when it came to Franco.

Yes, in my family, we've heard (and said) it all. :)

Dan

Interesting what-if's.

On another note, what is the current situation with the seperatist movement? It has fallen off the US news cycle, which is obsessed with investigated President Trumps entire life.

Let us not forget Tom Lehrer's "Folk Song Army."

"Remember the war against Franco.
It's the kind where eadh of us belongs.
Though he may have won all the battles,
We had all the good songs."

Yes, Franco's dead. When he died, Spain was peaceful and prosperous, and transitioned easily to being a democracy. Has anyone surveyed Lenin and Stalin's handiwork, lately? Or Tito's? But of course, in Spain it would have been different. Why?

Gentlemen, the is the Miniatures Page. We do toy soldiers. If you want to explain how virtuous old Marxists were, please post to the New Republic.

Well Franco's Spain was not the greatest is would have been far better than anything controlled by the Communists thus controlled by Stalin.

As for Tito he kept Stalin out of his country and did for many years keep Yugoslavia at peace.

We all know what happen there after he died, the factions that he kept at peace went back to doing what they did for hundreds of years and went back to killing each other.

There are 3 great board games simulating the war. Brian Train's in Modern War magazine (great fun, even a miniatures guy would like it), GMT's game (out of print, expensive, brilliant), & Compass Games entry which gets an 8.4 on Boardgame Geek. Played the first 2. I would say the Republicans had long odds facing them. Not as bad as France 1940, but a bit like the Confederacy in the ACW.