"U.S. Believed It Would Have Won A War With North ..." Topic

…Korea In 1994.

"Declassified documents published on Friday show that the United States believed its military and South Korea's forces would "undoubtedly win" a conflict on the divided Korean peninsula, during a 1994 standoff over Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions.

But long before North Korea had developed nuclear weapons, the Pentagon estimated that some 490,000 South Korean service members and 52,000 US personnel would be killed or wounded in the first three months of any conflict.

The assessment does not mention North Korean and civilian casualties, but analysts say losses would be enormous…."

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Amicalement
Armand

I still believe that, and believed that when I was in the ROK, with a Mech Bn, '84-'85. The North has a lot of assets, but no real combat experience since '53. And they have a lot of people that are not "happy" with the Un or his daddy, etc. Plus The ROKs with US forces are superior not only in quantity but quality. The NoKo air and naval assets would not last more than a day or two. And with all the US air and naval power launching and dropping ordinance the NoKos would be quickly attrited and overcome by US and ROK [maybe UN]forces.

Saying that, many civilian in the South especially in and around Seoul would be very high. As would generally non-combatants in the North. The refugee problem from the North would be massive. And that would affect China and that could be the Wild Card. But IMO they won't risk an all out war with the US, ROK and hopefully some of it's allies[the UN ?].

The NoKo forces would be eliminated as we say with the Iraqs in both Gulf Wars. And many in the NoKo regime including Un would be up on crimes against humanity etc. If many of them survived at all. A few MOABs or MOPs could end the lot in their bunkers.
But the US and ROK ground forces would take some loses no matter what. As the article states. Based on how much the NoKo forces are a Paper Tiger or not. But never underestimate your enemy. But kill as many of them as you can regardless.

And the US would not have to use Nucs. Whether Un deploys nucs or not. He has to know he is a dead man if he does anything but continue to talk smack for his own peoples' consumption.

And soon after, South Korea goes broke folding into their economy the needs of their northern cousins, who are starving, sick, have few modern skills and whose government have strip-mined the land of resources to sell to China because everyone else had embargoed them.

(In a nutshell. Yes more complicated, and nuanced, but the end result would be about that.)

Just like how West Germany pretty much went broke after Reunification, but it only took them ~10 years to recover. Most estimates say 50 years for the Korean economy to recover.

In this centuries economic setting, and with the greater population and extent of the issue, longer.

The East German population was not starving or sickly, and was only maybe one-two steps behind technology-wise, NK is an entire other ball of wax…

Yes, there would be a similar situation as what happened with West & East Germany. The ROKs in this case would have to bring the former dictatorship of the North into the 20th or 21st Century.

However, I think with the ROK being one of the strongest economies in that region[World ?]. It could be done with help from the US [and maybe the UN ?]. It is true West Germany had one of the most robust economies in Western Europe. And the East was no where near in the poor shape that most of North Korea is.

It won't be easy but I think the ROK with some outside help could do it. However bottom line, Korea, the region and most likely the World be better off without the Un regime … But again, recovery will be a real challenge for the ROK. But I don't see the ROK going bankrupt, etc. However their economy may suffer somewhat in the near term.

And then there is the China factor, all of this would not happen in a vacuum.

China's best interests (social, political, economic & military) are served with a, "not-unified-and-economically-strong," Korea.

Well, China does not want a US ally on their border. I think they're being paranoid, but we could probably write a new security treaty with a unified Korea that says the US will not back any offensive moves by Korea, and will only respond when Korea is attacked first.

Korea does not want to be a Chinese (or heaven forbid, Japanese) client state, so they want/need a big ally to prevent China from taking over.

As I said China could be the Wild Card. But I think a strong unified Korea which China could do business it might be to their liking. But again, that is not what most believe is in China's plans. Whatever those are …

And yes, it is well known the Chinese don't want a US ally i.e. South/unified Korea on their border. But again the Chinese are the Wild Card. But again would they risk all out war with the US, ROK and their allies ? The UN not withstanding [and probably the Joker Card ?] …

The South Koreans did the math. Wait another 10 or 20 years and there will be no one alive with relatives in the North to care anymore what happens there. Just too expensive to reunite. Time tends to sort these things out, at least that is what people want to believe when there are tough choices to be made.

That sounds reasonable … based on everything I've been told, read, etc. The bottom line comes down to, IMO. To destroy the Un regime and unite the Koreas under the South will be a very, very, costly endeavor in both blood & treasure. And everyone especially Un and his "bros" know this. And he's betting on it. That is why the US, ROK, etc., won't risk Korean War 2.0 …

@L4: I don't trust Un to be that rational.

I fully expect Un to throw a missile or two and have them land either on Guam or Japan. Whether that was intentional or not does not matter at that point, an attack has been made.

Technically, the North and South are still at war. There was no armistice in 1953, but rather a UN negotiated cease fire. So, a resumption of hostilities would still be part of the Korean War.

I know after a 65+ year cease fire, it would be a new war to those that fight it.

Keep in mind that China is opposed to a US supported unified Korea. I think this is why they have tried at least a little to calm the waters.

@ Lion – Well … Un may not appear to be rational … but I think he knows or his cronies do. What Sun Tzu said about warfare and deception.

He wants to keep the family business going .. run his own little dictatorship. Like dad and granddad did. He has to know, he fires a missiles, etc., at any other nation. He is gone …

@ Lincoln – Yes, many forget that there is only a truce on the Korean Peninsula. While I was there with a Mech Bn of the 2ID. We prepped as if war was about to breakout again at any time. And at that time Warrior Base and our Guard Posts flew the UN flag. To remind the NoKos that as in the 1st Korean War, the ROKs and USA would have UN support as well.

That being said I highly doubt few if any UN members would get involved if war got hot again. Most likely Japan as it is literally in their backyard. But I not too sure what Oz would do ? And of course China is on of the UN P5. And they and the former USSR/Russia rarely agree with the other 3 members. I.e. US, UK and France.

But I agree, if China gets Un to calm down a bit. The threat of him firing a missile at anyone he may think is an enemy. If Un becomes "rational", etc. China won't have to worry too much about a shooting war starting again.

The Chinese know they want things to stay just as they are. And don't want to interrupt their international trade, etc. with much of the world. They may call themselves Communists. But they have a good thing going playing state run Capitalists.

But we all don't have anything to worry about though now. Rodman was over there and said "it's cool" … So there is that …

That was 24 years ago and North Korea is far worst off than back then.

Plus one thing that is missing from that article is the number of North Korean dead and wounded which would be well North of 1,000,000.

The South Korean military is far better than what it was back in 1950 and South Korea terrain is perfect for defense.

Very little room for armor warfare the steep hills just do not allow it.

We would have complete control of the air within a week and complete control of the seas as well.

We all know what happen in Stalingrad and fighting in Seoul would be far worst.

I spent four years station over there and have seen the terrain.

What people forget is that back in 1950 two South Korean Divisions fought all the way down to the Pusan Perimeter over on the Eastern side of South Korea.

They bleed the North Koreans the whole way.

All very true … and some good points.

But like I said … Rod will take care of everything !

I think a best-case scenario (there is no ideal outcome) is for China and the US/S Korea to get close to the NK generals and make them an offer they can't refuse. I'm talking about $1 USD+ million Swiss bank accounts, scholarships for their kids to Stanford, condos in Maui, lifetime free pass membership to the Moonlite BunnyRanch, etc.

Have the generals make lil Rocketman disappear, the generals are in charge, the West comes in with economic aid creating a new source of cheap labor for Western goods. NK gets a massive technology transfer, the people get fed too. If they are fed they'll be loyal. Feed them and give them jobs.

The PsyOp storyline is lil Rocketman chose to be "elevated" into heaven like the god he is to be with his father and grandfather and has formally left his selected generals to carry on his work. The reason is that he has defeated the US/West and his work on earth is finished. He'll continue to look down on his people and care for them through the generals. Every month the generals will read a communication from heaven that lil Rocketman has sent them on what the people should do. The people are already conditioned to believe the big lie. That means no funeral, just a few monuments to remember him. His "death" is to be celebrated as he's made his ascent to heaven and has not died. He is the great hero who defeated the West.

This has the benefit of no war, no massive refugee problem in S Korea and China. The Korean War is formally ended. Let the generals keep their nukes or maybe phase them out with additional rewards. N Korea stays N Korea pleasing China who can now trade even more with them without sanctions. The Koreans have proven to be an intelligent and resourceful people, they'll figure it out and sometime in the future hold elections.

Will the people eventually figure out the big lie? Of course, they will. But I'll bet with the quality of their life improved, freedoms they never dreamed of, having jobs and not starving I doubt if they'll be too upset.

Assassination as a foreign policy tool? Yes, I worked at one of those three letter intel agencies during the Cold War.

Wolfhag

Assassination as a foreign policy tool? Yes,

Indeed … few would be upset[but there would be some !] if Rocket Man, al Baghdadi, Assad, AZH, UBL's eldest son, etc., to name a few … just died by some method of assassination.

When it comes to foreign policy there appears to never be a clear choice for an ideal outcome.

Ideally, the best way to dispose of a dictator that threatens your national security is to seduce the people of his country with the materialistic pleasures that Capitalism (or some version of it) can bring and have them put pressure on the government to change. However, that can take generations. I think that's how China is slowly evolving.

China seems to have a lock on doing business with N Korea. If the US could show that if a more Capitalistic version of NK existed it would help both economies. The Chinese version of Capitalism has been better for them than the Chinese version of Communism.

Maybe if China and the US got together and made NK an offer to transform them like China was transformed maybe Lil Rocket Man might bite on that – appeal to his greed and ego.

The last thing we want is a shooting war.

Wolfhag