"What Will China Do if the U.S. Attacks North Korea?" Topic
11 Posts
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Tango01 | 26 Sep 2017 9:56 p.m. PST |
"During a speech at the United Nations General Assembly on September 19, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that if North Korea threatened the United States or its allies, he would "totally destroy" the nation. As tensions continue to rise between Washington and Pyongyang, is Beijing growing more or less likely to intervene in a conflict between the United States and North Korea? On which side would China intervene? …" Main page link Amicalement Armand
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VVV reply | 27 Sep 2017 4:27 a.m. PST |
"If the U.S. attacks North Korea first, even with the excuse of North Korea's nuclear weapons development, China is obliged to defend North Korea for two reasons" |
SBminisguy | 27 Sep 2017 8:35 a.m. PST |
Ahh…but what do we do if China attacks North Korea, eh? |
Zyphyr | 27 Sep 2017 8:43 a.m. PST |
Let them, and only respond if things start to move south of the DMZ. |
Andrew Walters | 27 Sep 2017 10:12 a.m. PST |
I suspect the game works like this: China does not want the US in North Korea, nor for the US to attack North Korea. Very inconvenient for them, they want less US influence and involvement in Asia, not more, and they would look very bad. So before the US does anything, China will do something. Of course, they don't *want* to do anything, so if they don't think the US is going to take direct action they will do easy things, not the hard things that will actually change the situation. So the US would like China to believe that we are about to attack, since that will compel them to fix things. I'm sure that along with the UN speech US diplomats are trying to convince Chinese officials that they really need to act, or we will. And I'm sure China is interviewing everyone they can who has worked with Trump and watching how late the lights are on at the Pentagon, etc, to figure out to what extent this is just talk and at what point they need to do something so the US won't. Of course, if the Kim regime feels threatened the artillery opens up on Seoul, and since the South Koreans have nothing to gain they don't want anything exciting to happen. So they will also try to talk the US out of taking any action other than to ensure their safety. They will also try to convince China to make the problem go away gently, but they don't have a lot of leverage. No one wants to go into North Korea. They do have a doomsday device in that they could do a lot of damage to Seoul, and while I suspect it would be easy to topple the Kim regime, setting up anything in its place would be vastly expensive. |
Stryderg | 27 Sep 2017 10:22 a.m. PST |
Depends on what causes the attack, I guess. Suppose NK launches a missile test, said missile goes off course and lands in or near Guam or Japan. Does the US (and only the US) see that as a first strike? What if NK captures or sinks a US vessel in it's waters? They claim something like 70 miles when everyone else claims 12. So is that territorial defense against US aggression, or an unprovoked attack in international waters? My guess is that the lawyers will be arguing about it long after the final bullets are fired. |
Pan Marek | 27 Sep 2017 12:33 p.m. PST |
Andrew- Good analysis….up to where you say "it would be easy to topple the Kim regime". How so? The NK army is motivated (albeit through brainwashing), well equipped and dug in in mountainous terrain. I do not see them as a pushover. |
Lion in the Stars | 27 Sep 2017 2:39 p.m. PST |
Ahh…but what do we do if China attacks North Korea, eh? Make some popcorn? And 'politely' remind the Chinese that they aren't invited past the DMZ any more than the North Koreans are.
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Andrew Walters | 28 Sep 2017 11:25 a.m. PST |
You don't have to take on the whole army to topple the regime. Decapitate, take over Pyong Yang, control movement so Kim can't move and the army can't operate or be fed, then wait until you capture Kim or if he's in hiding until whoever's in charge makes the smart call and surrenders. But I don't know for sure. Someone does know. Another possibility – one B-2 can carry 80 JDAMs. I think there's a load out where they can do even more very small bombs, all with GPS. The idea was that with GPS you only need a small bomb, since you can put it in just the right place. One plane, one set of bombs, couldn't you wipe out the nuclear program? All the launch sites, stored missiles, labs, workshops, refinement facilities, storage, maybe even the associated housing? Some of these are underground, but there are special bombs for that. None of these are in the big cities, they're relatively remote. You could avoid collateral damage and keep witnesses to a minimum. North Korea could scream bloody murder, but could they prove it? The international community might just decide not to believe them, since it's just simpler. Would this provoke the Kim regime to a suicidal attack on Seoul? Or would they want to remain in power and choose to get revenge some other way? Of course, whether or not Russia and China and Iran, etc, protest directly, they would certainly take umbrage at the US acting preemptively and unilaterally. How they might respond is something that would have to be worked out. I guess it depends on whether the US decides to say "we did it, we had intel they were about to nuke Tokyo" or "what? us drop bombs? More lies from Kim, we were all watching football". |
ROUWetPatchBehindTheSofa | 28 Sep 2017 1:54 p.m. PST |
Taking out NKs nuclear programme could get messy in an embarrassing trans-national international incident kind of a way. I very much doubt that NK's nuclear facilities will fail safe. Even a faint coating of radioactive fallout over their backyard is unlikely to impress the Chinese! Personally I suspect the NK army is very arthritic, good for one push, but would then collapse under the weight of its own inadequacies. I'd bet a sum of money that most of the senior military staff are that, not out of military talent, but out of an ability not to have ended up in front of an AA gun. And for all the talk of Juche I'd bet a good chunk of the officer corps if they lost contact with HQ would just sit there or try and follow their last orders regardless of how appropriate. I also wonder how much of their large army is actually teeth and how much is construction battalions or lightly equipped 'internal security' etc? Also I'd reckon a good chunk of the NK political elite are realists – they know about the outside world. If the balloon goes up, they'll not be dying in a bunker with the Kim, they'll be running for the border with their Swiss bank pass books and/or talking to the Chinese about an 'interim government'. |
KniazSuvorov | 28 Sep 2017 7:51 p.m. PST |
Do you really think the Chinese would invade North Korea preemptively? Really? It seems to me that the CCP leadership, like most people with a brain between their ears, have determined that invading another country in the 21st century and toppling its government simply 1) costs a huge amount of money; 2) creates a world of irresolvable international political problems; and 3) creates major refugee crises in the neighbouring countries. North Korea has nukes. We all wish they didn't, but you can't change that militarily any more than you can put a genie back into the bottle with a grenade. |
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