"Could a new Spanish Civil War break out?" Topic

With the central Spanish government banning the Catalan vote for independence and arresting Catalonian politicians, protesters and banning all Catalonian protests in the future, will conflict break out between the Central Madrid government and the Catalon people? Also, the central government is going to take over the Catalonian police.

Might, probably wouldn't last long. If the Spanish military says no, it will be very quick. I might be mistaken but I think civilians can't own firearms, making it an even shorter uprising / revolution. Part of me is rooting for Catalonia. The realist in me though thinks this will not go well for them.

Not sure there would be any external support, unless there was some Islamic involvement.

Without nazi/communists like support the war would be a nonstarter.

I doubt it would be a full on shooting war. In any conflict the Catalan's are more likely to mirror ETA or the IRA rather than some re-run of the break up of Yugoslavia IMO.

Some minor points to bring to your attention:

A) Politicians haven't been arrested. It has been collaborators attached to a politician.

B) Central government hasn't ordered the arrests. It has been a judge, from 13 Circuit, in Barcelona, who has ordered the arrests.

C) The referendum has been called for without a census, without democratic guarantees, in violation of the laws of the country, both those of Spain AND of Catalonia (the Estatut), and under the premise that independence would be declared if the "Yay" were more than the "Nay" REGARDLESS how many people would vote: i.e. it vote 50,000 people of 7,000,000 Catalans and if 26,000 vote "Yay" independence would be unilaterally declared.

D) In the Spanish Constitution there is a proviso -article 155- that allows the government to suspend any autonomous region self-government. It can be called in cases of civil unrest, major disaster or any other circumstance that would impede the normal run of local government. When the local government is acting in rebellion and making decisions that are not its competence, the central Government is in its rights -and actually, its duty- to apply that article. So far, the Spanish Government has refrained from invoking the article 155. But it would be inside its rights to do it.

E) Finally, if the independentists want to have a vote about independence, they can follow the legal paths recognized in the Constitution and the Estatut, instead breaking the law and posing as victims.

As for violence, it won't be. Nor the Army will be movilized, be assured. The only thing needed to stop in a matter of hours the rebellion is to stop transfering the funds the Catalonian government needs to pay its debts. Nothing else. So far, the central government -yes, that same central government that separatists like to paint as "fascists"- hasn't chosen that option.

The only potential source of violence are the anarchists from the CUP. The rest, wont.

There is no chance for a Civil War, for Catalan independence movement is peaceful and non-violent --even from CUP party, despite Spanish propaganda about them, and even despite the intimate desires of Spanish Goverment I'd bet.

As for @Basileus arguments, these reflect ONLY the Spanish Government version of facts. I'm not going to throw myself arguing against them due to being deeply biaised, but better advise you to thoroughly read the international press articles on the matter.

Or from English editions of Catalan press, whose version of things is sistematically silenced by Spanish press to their readers:

vilaweb.cat/categoria/in-english

Vilaweb is a nationalist and independentist website. Of course, it is unbiased. Yeah, right…

Another version:

link

basileus66 and Lluis,

Thanks for the information the US media is too busy helping tear down monuments to give us any real information on what is happening.

Dave

Well thanks for the inside information, Lluis and Basileus, from both sides. For the record, I hope this disagreement stays peaceful and nonviolent. I also hope that the wishes of the Catalonian people are respected, however they vote.

Speaking of the international press:

link

Article in Liberation:

En lieu et place, on retrouve, répétés comme un mantra, tous les clichés du nationalisme le plus obtus, teintés de racisme, de mépris de classe, voire d'une forme de suprématisme culturel : d'un côté, le «nous», un peuple éduqué, travailleur, progressiste, honnête, républicain et européen. De l'autre, «eux», canaille ibérique rétrograde, paresseuse et corrompue, attachée à une monarchie démonétisée à force de scandales et perpétuellement en retard sur l'heure européenne.

I truly enjoy learning the opinions of native Spaniards concerning this issue. That said, perhaps this is a topic better suited for the Blue Fez. I know that if a similar discussion was held concerning states in the U.S. passions my heat up fairly quickly. My assumption is that the same is true for Spaniards. For that reason, I would move this discussion to the Blue Fez.

Kevin

Actually, I have asked Bill to DHd me preventively, just in case I lost my temper. So far, he hasn't and I am trying to keep my cool.

I assume this is not the place where to argue about politics, because this is not what the thread starter or readers would; so I will refrain myself from doing it (despite being intensely anxious to give @Basileus an appropriate answer).

Just two things: dear @Basileus, I was by no means suggesting that Spanish press was baised while the Catalan one wasn't. Sure both show a bias toward own positions. But WE Catalan citizens enjoy an advantage over YOU Spanish citizens: we enjoy access to both info sources (we can watch the same TV channels than you, for instance, but also those of our own), so we can know what lies you are being explained. You can't.

The second one, the significant one to this thread readers, is that there is currently no chance for a 'normal' war to outbreak in Catalonia, for there is at least one side not enjoying weapons --or the will to use them.

Lluis, so does that mean I have to cancel my fictional war with England (after the Scots leave) invading Spain to recapture Gibraltar, aided by Catalonia?

All those English sleeper cells disguised as expats on Costa del Del and Costa Blanca?

I am reading the words of Lluis latest post, and I simply can´t make any sense of them.
His words assume:
1) That the Catalan press is not Spanish, which is absurd.
2) That the regional Catalan press is all in favour of the separatist nationalist ideology, which is not.
3) That the "Catalan citizens" (?) are not Spanish citizens, which is also absurd.
4) He also uses a kind of tribal WE and YOU which is also just a false asumption, as many people in Catalonia has not, fortunately, succumbed to the separatist delirium.

Lluis: Wether you like or not, WE (you and I, and Basileus) are all free and equal-rights citizens of the same free country, and neither you nor any other iluminated group has the privilege of deciding to cut it in pieces because you "feel it". Time to grow up and understand what a democracy is.

Sadly, Lluis´ blindness is very typical of many people now in Catalonia, after 35 years of very heavy indoctrination in the separatist ideology directed from the nationalist regional government (who has enormous power and controls Public Education, all of the numerous regional public TV and radio channels, and has also indirectly controlled the greatest part of the regional press and radios through subsidies).

Lluis

Why do you assume that I can't watch Catalan TV (have you heard about the Internet?) or read Catalan newspapers? Or that I can't understand Catalan? (I do, by the way; I had to learn it when researching for my PhD) I've read YOUR (as you say) newspapers and websites, and they are as full of half-truths and outright lies as Pradva was under Stalinism. "Consejos vendo y para mi no tengo", as they say.

And by the way, I am ambivalent about your independence: I would like to watch you go once and for all your own way and stop hearing your constant whining -I would enjoy watching the extreme left and the conservative burgeois that are promoting the independence trying to square the circle; it promises to be really interesting, and funny… for the rest of us, of course, for you maybe not so much. On the other hand, I feel pity for those Catalonians that are innocent of any wrongdoing that will be forced to live in your "paradise" (just reading the fundamental law that the independentists want to use for the independence makes my skin crawl). Well, I suppose that omelettes can't be done without breaking some eggs, right?

Joaquin99

Very well said, sir!

So we have here, two views from the Spanish side. And one from Lluis. I think the Spanish government has made a major error of judgement, and has virtually ensured there will be a serious referendum.

Sending in the civil guard to arrest Catalonians for trying to run a ballot, blocking websites, threatening mayors with prosecution and confiscating ballot boxes and electoral material simply won't wash, and it is going to get the citizens of Catalunya fired up about heavy-handed tactics by Madrid. As it stands the most recent polls show about 70-75% in favour of a referendum, and roughly 50 % support for independence, I would guess that Madrid just added 5% to that latter figure.

This isn't going to end well.

Y vuelta la burra al trigo…

Khusrau

It is not for trying to run a ballot. It is for trying to run an ILLEGAL ballot. I don't understand why is so difficult to understand that a State has the right and the duty to uphold the laws of the country.

Maybe you do differently in Australia, though, and anyone can ignore the law when it suits them. I am sure that the police and the tribunals won't do anything to stop them.

I have committed myself not to derive this thread beyond its original purpose, and I shall not --despite my wish. Let's things happen in the next 7 days. That's all I have to say here.

@gunnerphil:

Well, I'm sad (from a wargamer point of view) to believe there are little chances for *realistic* scenarios based on your premises, but what-if settings have a wide allowance to anything you would imagine…

May I suggest a commando raid aimed to recapture the Rock through Catalan Bay? As a matter of fact, there *might* be some secret agency still recalling the original 1704 plan of attack --that one giving its name to that Gibraltar geographical feature…

Lluis

The "original purpose" is fantasize about Spaniards killing each other. Maybe you find that interesting somehow. I know I don't. I rather prefer to discuss politics than constructing scenarios of civil war in my country for the pleasure of foreigners.

Discussion of politics should adjourn to the Blue Fez; discussion of possible warfare may remain here.

Basileus, since I was only person who mentioned wargaming on this thread, I will answer you.

I can up with the most ridiculous scenario to show how crazy the idea is.

While Lluís is right about the impossibility of warfare happening in Catalonia, enterprising gamers could stage a game of cat/mouse where Catalans hide ballot boxes from overzealous (and maybe drug taking, at least a good many) Spanish paramilitary and police (regarding this, testimonies speak of dilated pupils and then there are the recordings of hyperactive ones hitting indiscriminately and bareky controlling themselves, even hitting their companions).

A minigame could reflect the virtual battle waged all over the day over webs which allowed the census workings. Etc. An interesting battle of legitimacy could be run between the Spanish holding their own laws superior to international ones or basic rights and Catalans winning up media and popular support by repeatedly staging multimillion pacific demonstrations and pacific resistance to riot police violence. (not being political here, just reflecting on what happened on last sunday as game mechanisms as each side would consider theirs to be the legitimate ones)

Won't get into politics, it doesn't belong and everybody has been able to look into what happened here last sunday. No need to explain it I guess, specially to, for example, Americans who brought selfdetermination to the UN charter as a basic universal right or British who did warrant the Scots a selfdetermination poll (which had lesser support than the Catalan has). Or Canadians for that matter… It is in fact an interesting issue, this of law vs. rights and all that, which can be applied to such a game.