"US Invades North Korea" Topic
24 Posts
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Lookingglassman | 20 Aug 2017 9:14 p.m. PST |
With all the talk about the US and NK in the news today I started thinking about setting up a future wargame where the US is given a reason to invade NK and not wait for them to come to us. I am looking at using conventional ground forces in this game and have it set like in the year 2046. Nothing special about that year, but it is far enough in the future where I can use some of the sci fi tanks I have on hand as part of this invasion. Looking for any ideals on what would be a plausible scenario. One I was thinking about is NK does something to upset the US, the NK generals kill their "dear Leader" and there is infighting amongst who will lead. The US sees a chance to strike and it does. China will also get involved, most likely siding with NK. I would appreciate any other ideals. Thanks! |
Lookingglassman | 20 Aug 2017 9:45 p.m. PST |
Oops Dont know why this double posted. |
Mardaddy | 20 Aug 2017 10:22 p.m. PST |
The whole scenario of US invading is just so very, absolutely, 100% implausible without taking the killing of about 20M South Koreans in the first hour by artillery strikes off the table. If you find a way to counter that in your scenario, you have the potential of a wargame. (and contact the US government, because they have still not figured out how to prevent that yet.) |
VVV reply | 21 Aug 2017 1:54 a.m. PST |
Well its simple, US wins as they have far superior weaponry. Unless – as I think they would – China intervenes, then the US loses (just too far away). |
PMC317 | 21 Aug 2017 5:37 a.m. PST |
Mardaddy – you assume that the wonks in Korea and the Pentagon don't, eventually, go "Well, having Seoul go on fire is a price worth paying." I'd say you'd be quickly looking at Chinese forces supporting the DPRK if it didn't go nuclear. Might be a fun thing to game with Tomorrow's War – DPRK forces with mid-late 20th Century stuff backed by ultra-modern near-future Chinese forces against similarly equipped US/Koreans. |
Stryderg | 21 Aug 2017 6:45 a.m. PST |
Somebody takes the saber rattling too seriously. A rogue NK general decides to take Seol and begins to drive south. The UN calls an emergency meeting and it goes pretty much like it did the first time around. So it's not the US invading, it's the whole UN (ok, mostly the US). The battles will rage in the south up to the middle of the north. The UN will stay away from the Chinese border so they don't counter-invade. But the Chinese will supply the NK with armor and air support (and a battalion or two if you want to game those). |
Legion 4 | 21 Aug 2017 7:56 a.m. PST |
If the US & ROKs and possibly the UN invaded North Korea. The civilian losses in Seoul alone would be horrendous. 12 million people in Seoul packed in like e.g. you'd find in NYC. Not to mention all the other civilian and military losses what would occur. No matter what the US/ROK anti-missile/rocket, etc. systems do. Some of Un's ordinance would hit Seoul, whether HE, Chem, Bio or Nuc. Now that would most likely be his "best" shot. Un couldn't maintain that for long with all the US/ROK/UN(?) firepower raining down for air, sea, etc. And the fighting along and north beyond the border would be very bloody. Unless some of the Norks revolt and or some of their military surrenders, e.g. like the Iraqis did in both Gulf Wars. But most believe that is very unlikely. And unless we can almost guarantee that happening, it would be such a loss of life to all involved. It would rival some campaigns in WWII or worse WWI. With the non-combatants most likely suffer very, very high losses. Very much "unacceptable" losses. And with the whole situation, the PRC may be the "Wild Card". Regardless what they may say, IMO the "like" how things are now. If war broke out, the PRC could watch as it moves many more of it's units along the Yalu River/China N. Korean borders. To stem the tide of N. Koreans trying to escape Un's madness and hopefully survive the war. Or the PRC could roll South again. To stop the US/ROK forces going any further North. And this could be a bloody or bloodless event(?). With the outcome of a new Chinese or North Korean border. Or North Korea being like Manchuria was with the Japanese in WWII. the Chinese will supply the NK with armor and air support (and a battalion or two if you want to game those). Possibly but I would not count on that. As the PRC very much has it's own agenda. IMO, they'd go all in or wait & see. But with this scenario, we will all have to wait & see. When I was with a forward deployed Mech Bn with 2ID, for 22 months,'84-'85. Our OPLAN was if the war broke out regardless of how or who started it. We, the US, ROKs, the UN(?) would not fight to reestablish the current borders of the Koreas. But push North to Pyongyang and beyond. And unite the Koreas under the South's leadership. We were told we were there as much to keep the North north as the South south. If need be. We were there to stop a conflict save for in the event of some very specific conditions. But since the losses would be so high for everyone regardless, pushing North would be the "best" of a bad situation. And again the Chinese would be the "Wild Card". |
Murphy | 21 Aug 2017 9:30 a.m. PST |
Offensive operations against NK from the South would be a cluster to begin with. Before even getting into it, lets look at what is there. 1: US Main Combat forces, 2nd ID. Sorry y'all. Indianhead may be pretty cutting edge but 1 freakin' division isn't going to cut it. You'll need additional support elements, as well as replacements for losses. (and there will be losses). So to do this, offensive you need to start building up for it…which means shifting men, equipment, beans, bullets, fuel and coffee, Humvees and MRE's, Tanks and TOWs, and a ton of other things that keep our merry war machine rolling along to Korea and pre-position them. Which means, well…from CONUS to offload sites in SK. So where do you do this? The three main ROK harbors, (POHANG, PUSAN, and INCHEON), are the only ones that can really handle that type of sea cargo traffic and when you start seeing ships loaded with tanks and guys named "Frank" coming ashore by the thousands, then even the old Ajima is going to know what's coming down. SK Media and US Media and World Media will be all over it. So now we have a time table to deploy assets and logistics to ROK. 2: Now to define operational goals? What's the outcome? Take P-yang and hope they throw in the towel? Do a MacArthur II and keep pushing until Panda Boy's big brother decides to throw 250,000 of his screaming coolies across the Yalu River and we do the 1950's all over again? Conduct "surgical operations" mainly deemed at removing his warfighting capability? 3: What's the movement plan Stan? Is this overland and ground offensive only? Okay if so, then take a look at Nork Land. You only have ONE Major Roadway in the west leading "up" (ie: Northish), and that is the Pyongyan-Kaesong Hwy. There is a smaller set of parallel roads, and to the east? You have ONE coastal road from Kosong to Wonsan. Then you get to hit the P-town Wonsan HWY. Everything else in between is essentially secondary roads. 4: Send in the Marines! Amphibious? Fine…fine a beach..find a port…go amphib…but they'll know…because you can be damn sure that Panda Boys big brother is gonna tell him everything they see and hear from their intell. So we need to hit a place that once we are able to take, we can then use the port facilities to move our ships full of tanks, etc onto and reinforce and move out on a good avenue of approach. That leaves us with Wonsan in the East, or Nampo in the West. 5: Lay of the land: Want to see how the terrain will affect Avenues of Approach and travel? Easy. Go to Google Maps, and look up north Korea, and zoom in and follow the P-town – Kaesong HWY. Once you hit the urban area of Kumchon, you will notice that there is only ONE major bridge (and a smaller secondary bridge) over the Ryesong River…Not to mention said HWY has over a dozen large tunnels. Each one capable of being blown and if that happens, so long hwy travel. Look at the land around these roads. It's a combination of flat wetlands, (marsh), with urban areas dotting it, and rivers intersecting, overlooked by very rugged high ground. Movement across here is going to be very slow going…and many of these low lying areas are flood prone, (natural or deliberate in case of defense). So yeah…A move into Nork-Land is not a "Hey Ho! Let's go!" Type of thing that we are going to be doing. |
Lookingglassman | 21 Aug 2017 12:44 p.m. PST |
Thanks for the conversation. I see where you are coming from, especially you Murphy, but that is why I am setting this in the future and not right now. In the scenario I am cooking up the US Army has already reinforced Korea due to past provocations by the North, I might even throw in a "limited war" that happened over a weeks time, 10 years before this scenario starts, but cooled down quickly thus the reason the US will have more forces already in place in SK. The goal would be to take P-Yang and stop there, but I want the Chinese to get involved so the Chinese will be sending forces south. I want a larger wargame and not a limited one. Oh the marines will be involved, but I don't see an amphib landings in this scenario because like you said they will be seen for miles. I haven't really decided what role they will play, maybe flank protection to the main body or conducting a supporting attack. Oh yeah, I know terrain is awful, but it was fought through during Korean War I and our equipment and military is far better than it was back in 1950-1951 so I don't see it as too big of a problem. |
Major Mike | 21 Aug 2017 4:51 p.m. PST |
Nothing is going to happen on the peninsula unless it includes the ROK and Japan as they will be on the receiving end of any of the Norths operational/strategic weapons. |
Murphy | 22 Aug 2017 9:50 a.m. PST |
The issue being is that 2046 where you have this set, the entire situation could be and probably will be drastically changed. |
Mardaddy | 22 Aug 2017 11:39 a.m. PST |
Things to take into account: 80% of NK's economy is slaved to PRC. PRC does NOT want sudden 100,000's or even millions of NK refugees. Fallout from local nukes would still blow through regional weather patterns into China, and they do not want THAT either. |
Legion 4 | 22 Aug 2017 2:59 p.m. PST |
2nd ID. Sorry y'all. Indianhead may be pretty cutting edge but 1 freakin' division isn't going to cut it. Felt the same on both comments. When I was with the 2ID, '84-'85, the Div's TO&E was: 1st Bde – Armored : 1 Mech Bn 2 Tank Bns 2d Bde – Infantry : 2 Light Inf Bns 3d Bde – Light/Mech : 1 Light Inf Bn 1 Mech Bn Div assets : 1 AR Cav Bn Along with FA, ADA, CE, etc. Bns, units, etc. Don't remember this exact breakdown. Back then the 2ID was short 2 or 3 INF Bns, IIRC they were pulled out under POTUS Carter ? ROK Bns would make up the one Bn that each Bde was short. And we trained that way with them many times. And those Bns were usually Light INF or maybe Armor. Back then at least 2 Divs on the West Coast, the 9ID and 7ID were slated to deploy to Korea. If war breaks out. And the 25 ID posted in HI would also deploy there as well. Plus 2MARDIV was on Okinawa, IIRC, they would probably deploy to the ROK. They had units training there frequently. Some were attached to the 2ID at times. IIRC 3d Bde[my old Bde] was converted to a Stryker Bde, @ 2 decades ago …(?) The terrain as Murpy noted is fairly rugged and mountainous, with many hills, ridges, streams and rivers. But generally not like was found in Italy during WWII. And don't forget the rice paddies … everywhere. We described Korea as you were on a road next to a paddy, or moving along high ground. And occasionally coming across small hamlets, villages or towns. Next to a paddy and farmers' fields. Very agrarian countryside … AFVs, vehicles, etc. could generally move without too much trouble. But movement was channelized along roads/trails many times. We described maneuver as could sometimes resemble something like WWII's Operation Market-Garden. I.e. with the Brit's 30 Corps basically advancing on a one or two tank front. And some Infantry moving along side or behind. But unlike Holland, Korea had few trees. And dismounted troops would move along the many ridges/ridge lines frequently. Securing the high ground as we saw in many battles during the Korean War. |
Winston Smith | 23 Aug 2017 9:27 a.m. PST |
Here's a scenario. Un is assassinated by one of his laughing generals wearing those weird floppy hats. Not all are on board and a civil war breaks out. The soldiers will be absolutely loyal to whoever commands them, because they will all be told that the General they are attacking killed Dear Leader. And then if the US and South Koreans are dumb enough to come in, it will be to help loyal General Park avenge Dear Leader on the traitorous General Park. Meanwhile the Chinese will have seized all the nukes. Most of them, anyway. |
ROUWetPatchBehindTheSofa | 24 Aug 2017 1:23 p.m. PST |
Probably no more or less plausible than any other scenario, though may not be that ultra-modern as its based on the current Kim (who frankly I'm not sure will see 2046 based on a rather shopping basket diagnosis of his weight and family medical history!) Kim, having drunk too deeply of his own propaganda, does something to annoy the Chinese and/or exposes their lack of actual control over their erratic neighbour. Loss of face means the Chinese leadership feel bound to tell Kim he's 'not the messiah, he's a very naughty boy'. Kim responds publically with a typical NK statement but references to the US are hastily scribbled out and replaced with the PRC; slightly less publically he responds with an anti-aircraft gun and a significant selection of the pro-Chinese lobby of the NK political establishment. The Chinese Communist Party leadership c**p themselves, Chinese public sentiment, having been stoked with nationalism for decades and now threated with nuclear weapons, goes off the deep-end. The premier with decreasing room for manoeuvre decide that they can't just wait it out like normal and that NK needs a stable government now. The PLA hastily go in to swiftly decapitate the NK leadership and install someone more pliable, but the operation goes pear-shaped, and stalls i.e. they don't get Kim in the first 24h and, can't swamp the Nork's quickly enough with overwhelming forces (either they don't have enough men mobilised in the right place or a seriously screwed up attempt at securing NK's nuclear arsenal makes passage through the north-eastern bit of NK tricky). SK is left with an unenviable decision, fearing that Kim in a moment of final vindictiveness will turn Seoul in to a parking lot, launch a pre-emptive strike north ostensibly to secure a buffer zone with US agreement and assistance. The Chinese don't say anything so either tacitly agree or are in too much turmoil to notice. Obviously the tacit objective it too secure a big enough chunk of NK to ensure that a full blown Chinese puppet state is too difficult to realise post-war. You could also throw in a scramble by each side to secure enough members of NK remaining political establishment to constitute the most legitimate seeming post-war NK government. |
Legion 4 | 26 Aug 2017 9:29 a.m. PST |
Yes, basically Un has us "hostage". No matter what anyone does he'll get some missiles, etc., into Seoul. Only chance that won't happen is the PRC literally just crosses the Yalu. And end the Nork regime and it's supporters. And even that could be dicey. But that may be more likely than Un and his cronies being over thrown ? Either way it could go bad. And both options have a very low probability of occurring. Or even working ? |
ROUWetPatchBehindTheSofa | 26 Aug 2017 9:44 a.m. PST |
Variation on my initial suggestion. Current Kim has massive cardiac arrest before current Kim Jnr is anointed as successor. In the best tradition of feudal states everywhere the major political factions in the NK leadership start squabbling over who gets to be 'regent' or just outright seize the throne! The pro-Chinese faction gets beaten and/or it all threatens to go 'full blown civil war'. China steps in and…. |
The Archer | 03 Sep 2017 10:53 a.m. PST |
Additional Variant to above ideas… based on what has just transpired. NK performs atmospheric test of Nuke on missile in time for Thanksgiving or Christmas. Its not a big nuke but doesn't have to be… its a Nuclear Weapon on a f'ing missile… Japan, which already is in debate on such, actually begins basic mobilization/spinning up of troops for possible action. SK Forces are placed on high alert US Forces stand-to, all leaves cancelled and Air Force birds are placed on +5's with more aircraft being given orders to go to theater. China, having Kin absolutely demonstrate he's not listening… reinforce the border troops with combat elements instead of security units. China isn't tolerating NK antics much longer…
The Russians… offer support for containment efforts and attempt to convince NK that maybe they should calm down as they may have gone too far this time… NK tells them all to kiss off. Emergency session of the Security Council is convened… and the decision made to end the ceasefire. SK and Chinese forces cross border with intent on getting after Kim and securing the nuclear facilities. Gaming opportunities from this: SK forces (Regular Trained) vs NK forces (Fanatical Green) with the NK having gobs of manpads and arty. SK forces attempting to advance to PyongYang in the face of serious firepower. A table could be used to determine if Allied Air managed to suppress NK arty enough to limit the amount of firepower being tossed at the assaulting SK troops. PRC Forces (regular Trained) vs NK Forces (fanatical Green). PRC rolling in to the guns of the NK army. Similar to above but its Warsaw PAct versus Warsaw Pact style weapons/gear. Japan and Rest of world in Amphib assault in the areas of Orang and KyongSong… with both locations having airfields (kyongsong's being a grass field) and both locations looking like they are good areas for amphib assaults. Additional gaming ops can be various Allied/Chinese Spec Ops versus NK defenders at different facilities like Radar or powerplant sites… All are capable ideas. And can be pretty damn interesting. Highly trained/Elite troops versus a good amount of guards at a sensitive site. And so many varied systems to do it with. |
The Archer | 03 Sep 2017 10:56 a.m. PST |
the goal of the amphib assaults… is the testing sites on that coast along with the missile launch areas. Ranger assault and relief by amphib forces |
Mithmee | 13 Sep 2017 6:54 p.m. PST |
The whole scenario of US invading is just so very, absolutely, 100% implausible without taking the killing of about 20M South Koreans in the first hour by artillery strikes off the table. Why does nearly everyone think this? The terrain in South Korea along the DMZ is not meant for any long range use of Arty and most conventional Arty can't even come close to Seoul. Seoul is basically 56 KM's from Pan Mun Jeon and most Arty can only shoot 20-30 KM's and needs to be right in the middle of the DMZ near Pan Mun Jeon even to have a clear shot at Seoul. A rogue NK general decides to take Seol and begins to drive south. Does anyone know a city along the Volga River where the Germans bleed themselves dry? North Korea does not have enough men in its military to take Seoul and forget thinking that they can just Nuke it because they really can't for many reasons. North Korea military equipment is old while South Korea's isn't. The terrain is beautiful for defense; lots of hill with very steep slopes. Spent four years over there as an Intelligence Analyst and the terrain sucks for attacking south. Oh and forget the east as well since even back during the Korean War the South Koreans bleed the North Koreans all the way down to Pusan. Do some research and stop believing in every media report that the North will destroy Seoul. Seoul is one big ass city that technically starts up at Tong Du Chon and goes pass Suwon these days. |
Legion 4 | 14 Sep 2017 8:09 a.m. PST |
Yes, as I said, Un would get some missile/rocket, etc., strikes on Seoul. Killing many. But Seoul will be no where near being destroyed. And the NoKos would not get any where near it. As noted, the terrain favors the defender. The NoKos wouldn't get very far passed the DMZ area. If that … Between all US & ROK[UN ?] assets, air, sea and ground. The Nokos assets would be ultimately destroyed, and in doing so … many more NoKos would die than ROKs or US. Pyongyang would look like a modern day Palmyra. Without/before any land forces got there. The Koreas would be unified under the South. Un and his associates if they survived would be charged with Crimes against humanity, etc. I'd rather see all of them killed in the conflict. It's quicker and "cleaner" that way. I comes down to how many do the ROKs [& US] want to lose in the exchange. With mostly civilians in Seoul and the surrounding area taking 100,000s of casualties. I don't think anyone in the West at this point wants all those ROK dead, etc. As for the NoKos, many of their innocent non-combatants would die as well. The "upside" … Un and his regime, supporters, etc. would no longer be a threat to anyone. And one unified democratic Korea would exist. Leaving the PRC a little "upset". But once the ROKs and PRC start open trade, the Chinese may be a bit "assuaged", I'd think. The are the most "Capitalistic Communist" on the planet, IMO. |
Apache 6 | 05 Oct 2017 11:05 a.m. PST |
Would not think of this as a conventional fight. I think you could do a decent scenario with Republic of Korea and or US SOF operatives (and/or robots if your doing ti in 2046), hunting nuclear weapons through tunnel complexes after the fall of the North Korea regime (occuring after UN is strangled by one of his concubines/sex slaves using her chains) |
ROUWetPatchBehindTheSofa | 05 Oct 2017 1:20 p.m. PST |
But once the ROKs and PRC start open trade, the Chinese may be a bit "assuaged", I'd think. The are the most "Capitalistic Communist" on the planet, IMO. Made me think that by 2046 the much prophesied rise of the next generation of automation might have actually come to pass. Unless China has managed to transition to a stronger internal market they could be in economic trouble if its become possible to mass produce consumer goods at least as cheaply as Chinese labour anywhere in the world through that automation. China may terminally short of cash to get involved in military interventions and/or suffering from large scale internal convulsions if there is truly mass unemployment and social dislocation. A line of reasoning which would limit China and stop the game possibly devolving into China v the US and give a reason why NK, starved of its Chinese credit line, might actually do something stupid… Also the tech differential could be pretty massive by that point if sanctions have been pretty consistent over the intervening couple of decades. The US and SK probably not fielding Bolo's, but probably scads of recon drones, possibly autonomous, and lots of fancy big data analytics and intelligence crunching AI algorithms in the back office. |
Legion 4 | 06 Oct 2017 12:29 p.m. PST |
As in many cases … it comes down to … |
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