"Do You Play The Odds?" Topic

I'm not talking about the membership of your game club.

Whether you calculate (or have pre-calculated) the odds, are an estimator, or just "know" (correctly or not) what the probabilities are for the outcomes of your orders, do you usually play it safe, go for the high risk/high return, or not even factor the odds (like, say, playing the "personality" of your force)?

I like to play "personality" (possibly because, as my mother-in-law points out, I do not have one of my own).

But that said, some forces have a conservative personality, others a desperate and risky outlook, and many don't really focus on values other than expected value.

Well, I try not to do anything stupid…..

I play the odds, "personality" of a commander should be baked into those odds.

I am moody. I will be very conservative and then make a daring (stupid?) attack. I have never played a game where I was commanding as if I were a historical personality. That would be interesting to do.

Not sure I understand the question. I will take the boring and costly but probable win over the daring stroke, though.

And I generally figure the dice will even out over the long term, but avoid staking everything on one die roll, even though the odds should be in my favor. It makes me a bad fit with certain rules.

I try to get there fastest with the mostest. When I lose, I've generally failed at that.

I play to win; therefore I play the odds. But I also try to deceive my opponent.

I can calculate the odds in an eyeblink. However, my tactics largely revolve around "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead" even in non-naval games.

If, as I have seen in the last few games I have played, my dice begin to follow the odds instead of rolling exactly what I don't need, I may be able to engage in a little more tactical finesse.

Depends, if I am part of a team, I will adhere to the overall plan, with only small bouts of reckless abandon.

On my own, AP Hill's division has attacked across Antietam Creek, via the fords – cause it looked like a good idea…..

Horror of horrors, I use tactics and brain power. Done correctly stupid risks are not required.

I try to use tactics and strategies dictated by the most favorable odds. If the game is designed right, that should result in me playing historically.

I will sometimes refuse to play an unhistorical way despite advantageous odds if I feel I can get away with it, e.g. if nobody else is playing that way. My goal is to feel like my historical counterpart, not to win at all costs.

- Ix

It's about risk management. Knowing the odds is still a factor to consider, but it may not be THE factor. For example, I may need to attack to support or protect the flank of another unit. I'll consider the odds, but then act, or not, if the odds are worth it.

I tend to go for higher risk operations but do everything I can to make sure I give my forces the assets needed to ensure success. I refuse to do frontal assaults however, unless they are needed to pin crucial enemy forces in place.
I like the majority of my boys to make it safely home from battle.

I've been known to take a desperate chance or try a long shot but I'm in it for the story. Win or lose in those instances, it makes the game fun.

That said, I'm all for judicious application of tactics and firepower.

Never tell me the odds.

I usually play the odds when my chance of success is well under half. Unless its an all or nothing turn.

Unless everything has gone to plan then most battles require a throw of the dice in the end to get total victory!

I had an opponent who played the odds. He went onto get a physics PhD and was very difficult to beat. We used to play a lot of Avalon Hill stuff and although I never asked him I think he must have played like a chess player – many moves ahead and constantly calculating in his head.

I'd play strategically but I only ever had rough idea of what I could hope to achieve. I once managed to sink one of his fast cruisers going at full tilt, with a u-boat and the odds on that succeeding were very, very slender.

Play the odds more towards the end of the evening – combination of clock and beer …

Nope. Requires too much thinking

Most of the time.