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"This Is How Great-Power Wars Get Started" Topic


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614 hits since 22 Jun 2017
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Tango01 Supporting Member of TMP22 Jun 2017 4:19 p.m. PST

Not with a bang, but basic strategic confusion in Washington about the links between Syria, Qatar, Iran, and Russia.

"In the last month, for the first time since the civil war in Syria began in 2011, the United States has directly attacked Syrian government forces or proxies not just once, but at least four times. The urgent question now is less about Syria than Russia, which in response to the latest of these incidents, in which a U.S. fighter plane shot down a Syrian jet, threatened to target any U.S.-led coalition aircraft flying over Syria.

Are the U.S. and Russia being sucked into war in the Middle East, and if so, how can escalation be averted?

The present political dynamics in the Middle East are unsettled and kaleidoscopic. But in the interests of brevity, leaving aside smaller players, and before we think about the role of the United States and Russia, the basic configurations of power in the region since the 2011 Arab Spring can be simplified in terms of five loose groupings…"
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Amicalement
Armand

Pan Marek Supporting Member of TMP22 Jun 2017 5:16 p.m. PST

Yep.

Personal logo Editor in Chief Bill The Editor of TMP Fezian22 Jun 2017 6:22 p.m. PST

His article makes no sense. If the US announces a policy regarding the Kurds (to resolve this strategic confusion he criticizes), how in any way does this de-escalate the "crisis"?

Lion in the Stars22 Jun 2017 7:48 p.m. PST

The problem is that pretty much any US policy on Kurds (short of Kill them All) would get the Turks mad. Mad enough to leave NATO? Maybe, and that would severely damage the US ability to do anything in Iraq or Syria.

But I'm starting to think that we need to tell the Turks to do something anatomically improbable and punch full backing behind splitting Iraq into 3 states (which may still be part of a Federal nation of Iraq): Kurdistan, Sunnistan, and Shiastan (or whatever names the locals prefer, going all the way back to Babylon if need be).

Personal logo Great War Ace Supporting Member of TMP22 Jun 2017 8:16 p.m. PST

I don't think that Muslim tribals want to get along. They want eminence. Infighting: That is how their chief kahunas have always risen to the top. We are stupid to be involved in any of that. Make Israel strong. Have allies along the lines of that policy. And leave the Muslim factions to battle it out. Any weapons of mass destruction proliferation will not be tolerated.

USAFpilot22 Jun 2017 10:32 p.m. PST

Turkey was no friend of the US during 2003 invasion of Iraq. The 4th Infantry Division sat on a ship in the Med because Turkey would not allow them to pass through Turkey to open a northern front.

Supporting the Kurds may be a good thing and if Turkey wants to leave NATO then so be it.

Personal logo Cacique Caribe Supporting Member of TMP22 Jun 2017 10:34 p.m. PST

That's right. Turkey hasn't been a friend of the West for almost 2 decades now. So I don't understand why people keep saying it is.

Dan

Personal logo 28mm Fanatik Supporting Member of TMP23 Jun 2017 8:14 a.m. PST

If the US announces a policy regarding the Kurds (to resolve this strategic confusion he criticizes), how in any way does this de-escalate the "crisis"?

It won't, but the author is saying that it will make our Syrian policy (a positive one, as opposed to a negative one like simply destroying IS) crystal clear and hopefully in so doing prevent any potential accidental clashes between US and Russian forces when the intentions and policy of each side are unclear or non-existent.

However, if we Bleeped text off Turkey with regards to the Kurds we'll have to kiss Incirlik goodbye.

And "balkanizing" Iraq (or Syria) is unlikely to end internecine strife among the various factions along either religious or cultural/tribal lines.

What had kept these countries in relative peace and unity (i.e., strongmen dictators) are gone.

Tango01 Supporting Member of TMP23 Jun 2017 10:22 a.m. PST

Agree!


Amicalement
Armand

Lion in the Stars23 Jun 2017 12:55 p.m. PST

That's right. Turkey hasn't been a friend of the West for almost 2 decades now. So I don't understand why people keep saying it is.

Turkey is a member of NATO. So they're *supposed* to be in line with the rest of NATO's strategy.

I never said friendly.

Personal logo Cacique Caribe Supporting Member of TMP23 Jun 2017 2:57 p.m. PST

Exactly, "supposed" to be. Though, from pictures I've received, Erdogan's troops have been escorting and buying ISIS oil for a while.

Our great ally, Turkey.

Dan

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