"Will The U.S. And Iran Go To War Against Each Other " Topic

…In Syria?

"Islamic State's self-declared caliphate in eastern Syria is surrounded by some of the world's strongest military powers. Their forces are advancing on several fronts. The battlefield odds aren't even close.

That's why the commanders of those armies -- in Washington, Moscow and Tehran, as well as Damascus and Ankara -- are looking beyond the coming showdown with the jihadists. When they're killed or driven out, who'll take over? It's an especially sharp dilemma for President Donald Trump. Because for the second time this century, the U.S. risks defeating one Middle Eastern enemy only to see another one, Iran, emerge as the big winner…"

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Amicalement
Armand

How's this for a prediction …

It will be Turkey that claims the lion share (both of the oil and all the post-War foreign aid money). Iran and Hezbollah will challenge them, claiming to do so on behalf of all the non-Turks (but really only for the Shia).

As a result the troop build up will continue long after ISIS is eradicated in the area, because each side will come up with new excuses to keep their forces in Syria.

China will support its puppet Iran wherever possible. After all, China really wants that "pipeline" to the Persian Gulf.

Even if Turkey eventually pulls out of most of Syria, it will pernamently annex the ethnic Turk areas of Syria.

Dan

Syria will de facto be carved up into areas occupied by the various key players because none of them by itself is strong enough to control the whole country, claims to the contrary by Assad notwithstanding.

Iran achieves its aims in Syria mostly through its support of a network of local shia militias, backed up by its Lebanon-based anti-Israel proxy army Hezbollah. Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders, including those from the "Quds Force," act as advisors and provide direction both tactically and strategically.

The US is unlikely to commit a significant boots-on-the-ground presence in Syria because the current POTUS is loath to being drawn into protracted insurgency conflicts in the ME.

Likewise, Turkey will avoid overextension in Syria because its "professional" western-style army is ill-prepared for COIN warfare and has performed poorly in limited action against the Kurds near the Turkish-Syrian border. Erdogan will lose his popularity and authority fast in a long, drawn out campaign that bleeds his army dry with little in return.

The Syria-Iran-Russia alliance salvages a Pyrrhic Victory after all the smoke clears. The Kurds also come out strong with western backing amidst all the chaos.

The "next one"? Why will there be a successor terrorist group to ISIS? They are an aberration. Elsewhere other terrorist groups dominate. The Middle East is not the world. We have SE Asia, Africa, and soon enough, Europe itself. Already hovering on the brink of insurgency, Europe has its own looming pool of Muslims in their enclaves, breeding like rabbits.

28mm Fanatik,
Where do you see that Syrian partition situation in, say, 10 or 15 years from now? Will it consolidate until there are finally two main opposing blocks?

Great War Ace,
I think ISIS showed terrorist groups what they could become, a new form of fundamentalist government, just like the Taliban showed ISIS before that. The terrorist organizations are like a virus that keeps pushing the envelope with each mutation, and they dissolve but "re-incorporate" after a few years with many of the same members.

Dan

Why will there be a successor terrorist group to ISIS?

Well I consider ISIS to be very similar to the rise of Muhammad Ahmad, the mad Mahdi in 1881.

Or Alamut.

Dan