"Soviet-Sino border conflict escalation question" Topic

If the conflict became an all out war sometime between 69-72, what would have been some of the likely objectives of either side? Also how would that have effected the American-Vietnam War? Lastly Could have the Type 69 MBT been put into production sooner with a war starting or if China was making serious preparations of for a war?

I feel the Soviets would have gone nuclear due to the manpower difference. A biological weapon released by the Soviets in China was the basis for the 1971 film "The Omega Man": link

Something to also note, back then and even maybe a bit now. The infrastructure, e.g. roads, rail, etc., in many places along the border was not that good. And in some locations the terrain was very restrictive for vehicular movement. So certainly that would be a consideration to fight a conflict along the borders. And if the campaign was going to penetrate deep into enemy territory.

Objectives, like Bastogne during the Ardennes Offensive.
Controlling road nets, etc. would be critical. So capturing the few villages, towns, etc. that influence road/rail movement.

As far as the effect on the US War in SE Asia. In certainly would impact the supply to the NVA/VC of all classes. By both their biggest benefactors, and fellow Communists.

However, how much it would effect the NVA/VC efforts to get the US/SEATO out of their country. Not sure, but it was NVA's/VC's backyard. They really didn't have to do anything. More then continuing inflicting losses on the ARVN/US/SEATO. And they really didn't have to "win" … just not "lose".

But without/limited supply/influence by the USSR and PRC. The US may have invaded the North and drive on Hanoi ? But that is purely speculation on my part.

Type 69 – the PRC would need everything they could produce taking on the USSR. Whether they would push to produce better equipment of all sorts. They might just go with their "enemies'" philosophy – "Quantity has a quality of it's own", IIRC the "saying" …

Even outnumbering the USSR. Every citizen in Chine old enough to carry an AK, ammo and a sack of grenades. Would be a de-facto member of the military. And/or be a huge Guerilla army. If the USSR decide to invade.

Of course if WMDs were employed all bets are off. It would again come down to numbers. Who would have the most survivors after the exchange(s). And if USSR WMD tech better than the PRC's. And again the numbers of those WMDs available.

Zookie:

When in doubt, ask the spooks:

PDF link

PDF link

Cheers and good gaming.
Rod Robertson.

I think I still have the SPI game on this hypothetical conflict but I can't remember who seemed to have the edge; I may still have the companion S&T issue featuring analysis and should go look for it and review.

Seems like at the time this was a window for the Soviets to launch a "pre-emptive strike" and deal a crippling blow to a potential rival before mainland China had a more significant nuclear deterrent capacity. But wiser heads in the Kremlin prevailed.

The US warned them not to do anything so crass:
link

There was a book about this that came out in the 70s called "The Chinese Ultimatum."

There was a scene in the book where a CIA analyst is briefing the President on what will happen and he says, "In the first week of the war, the Russians capture 1 million Chinese, by the end of the second week the Russians have captured 5 million Chinese, by the end of the month, the Russians have captured 20 million Chinese. The next day the Russians surrender.

I have that old SPI game too. IIRC it was called "The East Is Red". One of the few games where there were Tac Nuc counters.

If you take the USSR, then it has two primary goals:
A) keep the PLA at the border, in the area of ​​the fortified lines.
B) prevent the PRC from seizing Mongolia

In the case of breakthrough fortified lines and the fall of Mongolia – to disable a few highways and railways. In this case, most likely, the tempo of the PRC advance will drop to the warmth of the offensive on the Western Front of the First World War, especially in the summer. So to say, hello from the landscape and the specific climate.

Was in china a few years ago…did a tour out of Beijing to the Great Wall. On the way I commented to the guide there were a great many things we had driven by that were painted green.

He reminded me it was still only a few hours by tank from the Border to Beijing! No I think they are still well aware of that & would fight accordingly. Then or now.

They are the original students of Sun Tzu …