"Mathematical Probability vs. Probability Deity." Topic

I'm thinking of giving up mathematical probability.
For example, rolling 2d6 and achieving a 10+ result. My middle school maths says 10/36 about 28%, rolling 10+ result in two consecutive rolls about 7%, in 3 consecutive rolls about .02%.
I'm open for corrections 😜
Well in several games recently, 10+ result was the sweet spot The results I acheived makes me think I should make offerings to an appropriate Deity, and rely less on logical thought.

It's 6/36 or 16.7%

two rolls 2.8%

three .46%

So, I must be thinking 9+..😬

Shh, don't tell anyone but I'm the PD you seek. You only need to make an appropriate sacrifice – cash accepted, large quantities expedite – and all your dice rolls will be winners forever more.

Oh, and you have to make three box cars rolls in a row on a pair of average dice.

See how easy that is.

Actually, who is your Wargaming probability Deity?
The other evening, when we were playing Gods and Mortals, I called on Athena. 😁

Joe Pesci. Call on him too many times, however, and he'll send someone over to break your fingers.

Here's the table for one d6 plus another d6 (I assume that's what you mean … adding them together):

   1  2  3  4  5  6 
1  2  3  4  5  6  7
2  3  4  5  6  7  8
3  4  5  6  7  8  9
4  5  6  7  8  9 10
5  6  7  8  9 10 11
6  7  8  9 10 11 12

If by 10+, you mean ten or greater, it is, as Jericho Smith asserts, it is six out of thirty-six. (One of) The ten out of thirty-six is nine or greater.

Doing the tables by hand for up to four six-sided dice is fairly quick and easy. Plus, writing them out by hand gives you a kind of visceral insight into the underlying patterns.

It's not becaue some event has a low probability it will not happen. Of course it will happen, exactly with a frequency predicted by the computed probability.

Only a few individuals will observe that rare occurance, and then conclude the probabilities must be wrong.

A lottery winner who participated only once might also conclude winning the lottery is close to 100%.

The 2D6 spread is c. 2.8 percent between each number, as a chance of rolling that number, starting at either end: snake eyes or boxcars are both a 2.8% chance of coming up across a random selection of dice rolls (on any single roll, the chance of any given number coming up is identical). So, 2 = 2.8; 3 = 5.6; 4 = 8.3; 5 = 11.1; 6 = 13.9; 7 = 16.7; 8 = 13.9; 9 = 11.1; 10 = 8.3; 11 = 5.6; 12 = 2.8.

The chance of rolling 9+ is c. 27.8%, across a series of 2D6 rolls…………….

And, more seriously, you can find a variety of probability calculators on this internet thingy.

Don't forget that the probability goes up with dice throwers under a certain age. I ran a game once where a young gamer, had to be about 8 or 9, was doing my AA rolls for Check Your 6!. He needed an 11 or 12 on 2d6. Boy did he roll. 11 out of 16 rolls were 11+. That game was over quickly.

Phil