"Is Vietnam Reigniting a Fire in the South China Sea?" Topic

"With Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's decision to reset ties with China, and Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak's decision to put his country in the Chinese orbit, the situation all around Vietnam is evolving very rapidly. China also signed agreements for the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road with Cambodia in mid-October, not to mention their joint military exercise scheduled for December. Together, these rapprochements are seen by the Vietnamese as coming at the expense of their country, which is now "isolated" by land and sea.

Things have gotten worse and worse for Hanoi only five months after The Hague international tribunal's verdict; the latest developments in the South China Sea (SCS) have shifted in Beijing's favor. One by one, Vietnam's neighbors have looked toward China and now seek conciliation. The legacy of U.S. President Barack Obama's "pivot to Asia" seems distant, especially since President-elect Donald Trump has declared his intention to cut back the U.S. role as "world policeman." At this time, no one can predict anything about Washington's future role in Asia. Trump criticized Obama's Asia policy during his campaign and now, Asian leaders are still waiting to see the U.S roadmap for the region under the next president. Will Trump lead America to an isolationist foreign policy? A year ago, Harry Kazianis imagined the consequences for U.S allies if America walked away from Asia. This scenario seems now potentially realistic.

In this context, it seems that Vietnam prefers to anticipate and plan to protect itself, including militarily. But by extending an airplane runway and building hangars for housing combat aircraft in the Spratly Islands, Vietnam has raised tensions. In August, the country already deployed rocket launchers to its bases in the SCS. Is such an offensive stance justifiable?…"
Main page
link

Amicalement
Armand

Seems as defensive as other installations on other islands in the SCS.

Where's the problem?

China's set the precedent for this, but is no doubt displeased when others adopt their strategy as well.

Arguably Philippines set the precedent when they grounded the LST BRF Sierra Madre onto Ayungin Reef in 1999.

Island building on the cheap!

Perhaps, though I'd say grounding a LST with a squad or two of troops, vs. "hoovering" up all that sand to dump on top of the reefs; building runways long enough to handle strategic bombers; adding hardened hangars/air shelters that can cover said bombers and fighters; installing radar, air defense weapons, and SSMs; and building large barracks and docks is just slightly different than what the Filipinos did, especially, if one considers how many islands/reefs they've terraformed in the South China Sea.

Not to mention them falsely declaring ownership of the entire region, as a new Chinese "lake".

It will be interesting to see how this all pans out. Even if I am China I don't think I want to tangle militarily with Vietnam.

TheWarStoreMan,

The Vietnamese and Chinese militaries are not what they were in 1979.

Vietnam's army no longer consists of battle hardened soldiers and officers. Their military has declined qualitatively vis a vis the Chinese.

The Chinese in 1979 were a 1950s force with early 1960s tech. This is no longer the case.

In any event, unless they're completely incompetent the Chinese should be able to overwhelm the Vietnamese relatively quickly.

Maybe, but the Vietnamese have the advantage of having successful experience to draw upon whereas the PLa is an untested force.

Vietnam has never had much tech. Has never seemed to be an issue for them.