"Do the SCS airstrips have any real value?" Topic

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This article seems to echo what I have long thought.

Their value is more political and symbolic than militarily practical.

Indeed – they are more to support illegal fishing/oil exploration than to be fought from. In addition to the symbolism.

Nice to have a Chinese source admit as much though.

Yes, it's putting something on the islands to establish a claim; in a shooting fight they would be knocked out in the first couple of hours.

-Will

Yes, they permit the Chinese jets to be based far from home, thereby projecting their power and influence over a far greater range than before.

Their airbases are large enough to support even the basing of strategic bombers on them, in addition to scores of fighters. They're basically unsinkable aircraft carriers in the SCS.

Apparently, according to the new article I read yesterday, they're still considering setting up an ADIZ, or Air Defense Identification Zone in the SCS.

I agree with 28mm Fanatik: their value is political.

However they are militarily useful against neighbouring countries that are completely lacking in any conventional air and sea capability.

The only country with any significant air capability in SE Asia is Singapore (includes 40 F-15SG, 62 F-16C/D, AWACS and tankers). Arguably it's navy is the best in the region too

Philippines has not military capability whatsoever – virtually no airforce (ordered 12 armed jet trainers) and no naval capability (most capable ships are ex-US Coast Guard cutters).

Vietnam's navy is small as is it's airforce. Given proximity to China, it probably can't dedicate many resources to knocking the islands out.

Indonesia's military is still mainly a garrison force and it's navy and airforce are small and dysfunctional. It has virtually no long range strike force and has massive logistical and procurement problems (e.g. buying systems without weapons included).

Malaysia's much the same. It also has serious budget issues and is not replacing worn out equipment.

And it's clear from disappearance of Malaysian Airline flight MH370 that there is no functional air defence system in SE Asia. In Europe or USA, an airliner that diverted would be intercepted by local QRA. In SE Asia the plane completely turned around and nobody noticed.

So against ASEAN countries, the bases pose a massive threat especially if they are basing long range Flanker type jets or anti-shipping missiles.

Good analysis Deadles; I agree that their military value will depend on what sort of conflict develops.

-Will

Their airbases are large enough to support even the basing of strategic bombers on them, in addition to scores of fighters. They're basically unsinkable aircraft carriers in the SCS.

They can't base "scores of fighters". Read the article!

One very large bomb in the middle of the runway and they're useless for planes. "Unsinkable" goes with "sitting duck". The enemy (Indonesia, Phillipines etc) buy some cruise missiles and hit a sitting target.

Or if somehow the Chinese can prevent cruise missiles from hitting a stationary target, one submarine in the area and they cannot be supplied. Indonesia has submarines. And fast missile boats.

To prevent the sinking of supply vessels would require a substantial fleet to protect them -- a fleet that cannot dock at the islands and has to resupply itself from home. That is a terrible military strategy -- expensively protecting minor assets. The tail is wagging the dog, and the Chinese aren't that stupid.

They're entirely political.

One very large bomb in the middle of the runway and they're useless for planes. "Unsinkable" goes with "sitting duck". The enemy (Indonesia, Phillipines etc) buy some cruise missiles and hit a sitting target.

Or if somehow the Chinese can prevent cruise missiles from hitting a stationary target, one submarine in the area and they cannot be supplied. Indonesia has submarines. And fast missile boats.

I always love these hilarious assumptions when one side is assumed to sit there like an idiot and take it!

So the PLAN would sit around and let the Indonesians sink Chinese supply ships. The Chinese obviously have no frigates, destroyers, submarines, an aircraft carrier of their own.

The Chinese would also never be intelligent enough to send supply aircraft to resupply islands.

Indonesia doesn't have a claim on any islands – it's claims are purely maritime rights.

Oh and 24 fighters is "scores" by SE Asian standards (especially when backed up by long range Su-27/-30/J-11/J-16 and AWACS operating from mainland – oh and a carrier too):

Phillipines – 0 fighters, 12 armed supersonic trainers

Vietnam – MiG-21 retired this year – this means about 100 Su-22/27/30

Indonesia – 92 fighters (F-5/F-16/Su-27/-30/Hawk 200/100) – not all operational.

Malaysia – 69 fighters (F-5/F/A-18/MiG-29/Su-30/Hawk 200/100) – not all operational and MiG-29 and F-5 on last legs.

Singapore – 151 fighters (F-5/-15/16) – NO CLAIM

Thailand – 120+ fighters (F-5/16/JAS-39) – NO CLAIM, getting closer to China. They also have about 50 L-39/Alpha Jets used for A2G but these are short ranged, lacking in spares for Alphajets and lack viability in modern combat ops.

I'm also being generous above by including Hawk 100s (dual seat advanced trainer, Hawk 200 is subsonic light fighter).

And the military value of shortlegged, virtually non-operational and non-upgraded F-5s, Hawk 200s and MiG-29s is virtually 0.

Remember SE Asia couldn't even intercept an errant airliner (MH370).

Other than Singapore and to much lesser degree Thailand, the militaries in SE Asia are garrison forces and tokenistic.

They're usually underfunded, corrupt and incompetent.

Indonesia's sub fleet by the way is 2 ancient Type 209 subs built in 1980s on a 1960s design

They have ordered 3 slightly larger variants though none of these have been delivered yet and the program appears to be in dire straits (Indonesian planning and procurement is dire even by the low standards of SE Asia).

Any war in the SCS hinges on US involvement. If the US can be bought off or distracted with something else then China can win. I don't think the US can ignore the area since the SCS carries so much trade.

How to rein China in and keep the various countries involved on the same page is more problematic.

The military value of these bases is low, but versus the very weak local military [Philippines especially] they can be significant.

The problem is the US let the Chinese build the islands in the first place.

Thus the military threat against smaller countries has expanded two fold:

1. The actual military capability of the islands versus weak SE Asian forces

2. The US has shown itself to be unwilling to take a stand against the Chinese. Thus SE Asians can't rely on US deterrence or action.

Now logically one would assume the SE Asians would ramp up their own military capability and some are trying to do that (Vietnam).

But most are simply acquiescing to China as the new top dog in the region.