PMC317 | 24 Nov 2016 4:00 a.m. PST |
So it seems as though the SyAAF has hit Turkish troops at Al Bab, killing three and injuring 10. The Syrian government is saying that it's an ISIS suicide bomb attack. The Turks have banned all reporting of the incident within Turkey. Thoughts? link |
Mako11 | 24 Nov 2016 5:23 a.m. PST |
Well, when you are operating without permission in another country, AND, no doubt without coordination as well, things can get rather messy………. People have been warning about just this sort of thing for some time now, like 1+ years. |
PMC317 | 24 Nov 2016 6:04 a.m. PST |
What are the chances o a Turkish-Syrian war, given the mix of Russian, Iranian, Lebanese (Hezbullah), US/Western SOF, and other actors within Syria? It seems as though the SDF-YPG/J push on Raqqa is going to be stymied not by ISIS forces but by Turkish action in the Al Bab-Manbij area – would a strike by the SyAAF on Turkish troops be seen by Ankara as an accident or as support of SDF-YPG/J forces? All very nine-dimensional chess… |
JMcCarroll | 24 Nov 2016 9:23 a.m. PST |
Might be easy just to nuke the country. |
Deadles | 24 Nov 2016 3:54 p.m. PST |
Deadles is curious about a match up between Russian Su-30s and Turkish F-16s and Leopard 2 versus T-90. Apparently Turkey purged half its fighter pilots after the coup too though I suspect in a shooting war they'd be recalled back to duty like the Iranians did back in 1980. |
Legion 4 | 24 Nov 2016 7:08 p.m. PST |
The news reports stated the Turks say it was Syrian aircraft. And the Syrians say it was a suicide bomber(s) attack by Daesh. Really … I don't think we can trust anything all three of these parties say … |
Major Mike | 26 Nov 2016 8:49 a.m. PST |
I do believe that the Turks keep their best Armor on the Greek border, at least it use to be that way. |
15mm and 28mm Fanatik | 26 Nov 2016 3:04 p.m. PST |
The Turks won't take on the SAA as long as they're backed by Russian airpower. Erdogan talks tough but is risk-averse. He'll only pick the easy fights where he has a clear edge, like against the Kurds. The Kurds are good fighters no doubt, but they lack advanced heavy weaponry, armor and airpower. |
Aristonicus | 27 Nov 2016 6:01 a.m. PST |
What has happened is that there were two attacks on Turkish Forces: On November 23 a Turkish armored military vehicle was attacked near the village Wiqah north of Al-Bab in northern Syria. Some sources claimed a guided missile strike. ISIS related Twitter accounts claimed a suicide attack. The air-attack on the Turkish soldiers north of Al-Bab happened on November 24 at 3:30am local time according to the Turkish army. It was confirmed to journalists by very senior people in Damascus. The Al Masdar News account though, seemingly denying such a strike, includes a very specific non-denial-denial quote: A high-ranking official from the Syrian Arab Air Force (SAAYF) told Al-Masdar on Thursday night that their fighter jets did not bomb the Turkish Army in east Aleppo. "No Syrian or Russian aircraft bombed the Turkish Army near Al-Bab on November 23rd – all reports claiming otherwise are lies," the official confirmed to Al-Masdar on Thursday. The airstrike did not on occur on the 23rd, as "denied" by SAAYF, but on the 24th. According to CNN Turkey, the airstrike on Turkish positions was a response to recent Turkish shelling of the Syrian army in the Latakia province. Judging by the vehicle hit by the air-strike the Syrians can claim plausible deniability in my opinion:
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Legion 4 | 27 Nov 2016 8:52 a.m. PST |
Interesting … thanks for the intel … |
PMC317 | 29 Nov 2016 4:32 a.m. PST |
Huh. So the Turks are actively engaging the Syrian Armed Forces already with shelling. I hope they get their teeth kicked in and pushed back into Turkey. |
Legion 4 | 29 Nov 2016 9:15 a.m. PST |
Agreed … they have been little help with eliminating Daesh or AQ in the area. And clearly very much have their own agenda. Some say like becoming Ottoman Empire 2.0 … IMO nothing good would come this … |
Bangorstu | 29 Nov 2016 11:37 a.m. PST |
Plenty of it going on – the USAf have just admitted killing dozens of Syrian government troops by accident… |
Deadles | 29 Nov 2016 3:34 p.m. PST |
I do believe that the Turks keep their best Armor on the Greek border, at least it use to be that way.
Yup as witnessed by use of Leopard 2s in Istanbul during coup. The only ones we see in Syria/Turkish border are M60s of various marks. Turkish military is somewhat crippled after the coup. About half the AF pilots have been dismissed, along with lots of officers throughout the military including a lot of senior generals.
Kinda like Red Army in 1941 or Iraqi military in 1991! In other Turkish news, Germany is looking for another base to use against ISIS as opposed to Incirlik due to deterioration of ties with Turkey: nytimes.com/aponline/2016/11/25/world/europe/ap-eu-germany-turkey.html?_r=2 |
Legion 4 | 29 Nov 2016 4:55 p.m. PST |
Plenty of it going on If you mean killing Daesh and AQ, there is not enough of it going on. As they still exist. the USAf have just admitted killing dozens of Syrian government troops by accident… No agenda, just more CD that is bound to happen in any war. Especially in this type of conflict. Germany is looking for another base to use against ISIS as opposed to Incirlik due to deterioration of ties with Turkey: The Turks continue to be a poor excuse for a member of NATO. Or ally to the West … or anyone else for that matter. And it continues to appear to be the case. |
Bangorstu | 30 Nov 2016 3:08 a.m. PST |
I agree that in an are of operations, where two sets of combatants are undertaking airstrikes without co-ordination, mistakes will occur. That said, the US has a shaky enough legal grounds for conducting airstrikes in Syria in the first place – and Syria is now quite capable of closing it's airspace to Coalition aircraft. So it might be worthwhile to be a little more careful…. |
Bangorstu | 30 Nov 2016 3:12 a.m. PST |
Just read that the troops concerned were belonging to a militia which wasn't wearing uniforms, which makes things even more understandable. The point about being careful holds though. |
PMC317 | 30 Nov 2016 8:15 a.m. PST |
I hope the Germans do find a better location. Perhaps Iraqi Kurdistan, or Syrian Kurdistan, just to annoy the Turks a bit? :D |
Legion 4 | 30 Nov 2016 9:19 a.m. PST |
That said, the US has a shaky enough legal grounds for conducting airstrikes in Syria in the first place – and Syria is now quite capable of closing it's airspace to Coalition aircraft.So it might be worthwhile to be a little more careful….
Primarily the US is there to eliminate Daesh and AQ types. Regardless of some sort of legality or not. What ? Is Assad going to complain to the UH or the Hague ? Even he is not that stupid. Plus the Syrians don't have the assets or "skill", etc., to close it's airspace to the Coalition. They have a hard enough time trying to overcome their own homegrown enemies, etc. Let alone expand the conflict with shooting at the Coalition. And I'm sure the Russians know this and agree. The war is not with the Coalition … but the FSA, Daesh, etc., … Just read that the troops concerned were belonging to a militia which wasn't wearing uniforms, which makes things even more understandable. And I'm sure the US is very careful and circumspect. But again, in this type of conflict. CD is bound to happen. But again we all know that … or should … The point about being careful holds though.
Again the USAF is well aware of this. Otherwise, not only would Daesh have suffered many more losses. But in turn CD would increase. And that is not the US's intent to cause more CD. But remove as many Daesh/AQ as possible from the battlefield, i.e. Kill as many as possible. |
Bangorstu | 30 Nov 2016 10:32 a.m. PST |
Legion – Assad gains by the USA bombing ISIS. He does not gain by turning a blind eye to the USA bombing his allies. He won't complain – he'll simply inform the USA to keep out of Syrian airspace. Do you seriously think the USAF will try to force the issue against the Russians? Especially if they make their move in two months time? And I'm sure the US is very careful and circumspect TBH, internationally, it's not a quality america is known for…but in this instance, not wearing uniforms didn't help matters. I can see why it happened, especially as everyone is also using the same kit. And I doubt ISIS are still waving those flags around :) As well as being careful, it wouldn't hurt the USA to apologise occasionally… |
Legion 4 | 30 Nov 2016 5:17 p.m. PST |
Assad gains by the USA bombing ISIS. He does not gain by turning a blind eye to the USA bombing his allies. But with so many factions involved. It's hard to know who is who. And the US will get, if it has not already, Assad is not a threat to the US. Daesh and AQ are. Do you seriously think the USAF will try to force the issue against the Russians? Do you ? Both are smart enough not to play that game. Save for something like was seen at the beginning of the old Top Gun movie. Especially if they make their move in two months time? That may be something that the Russians have to consider. Because regardless, From 2017 on, political decisions generally won't be what was happening for almost a decade in the past. For better or worse … TBH, internationally, it's not a quality america is known for Well as I have said to you and so many others here. If the US was not concerned about CD … well by now you should know what I'm going to say. As well as being careful, it wouldn't hurt the USA to apologise occasionally…
In many locations in the world especially in the Mid East and A'stan, etc. Apologizing is a sign of weakness. You don't come from a position of weakness when dealing with certain types of cultures. They generally only understand force. You should remember that … |
Bangorstu | 01 Dec 2016 12:40 a.m. PST |
And in many parts of the world, an apology is seen ass good manners. Again, not a quality Americans are, worldwide, known for… though that perception contradicts my own experience. I'm going to guess however that if the Syrians killed a few dozen American soldiers, you'#d expect an apology. Not apologising simply reinforces the belief that American really doesn't care about the lives of anyone if they're not in an American uniform. |
Legion 4 | 01 Dec 2016 9:09 a.m. PST |
Give it up stu. And the US would not expect anything from Assad or his type. an apology is seen ass good manners. This is a war. A GWOT, it's not a cocktail party at an embassy. Not apologising simply reinforces the belief that American really doesn't care about the lives of anyone if they're not in an American uniform. Yes the US does care about it's own people and allies more than others. That is human nature, etc. However, you and others like you need to remember as I have said repeatedly. Again and again and again … If the US didn't care about CD, etc. Many places on Earth would again look like the dark side of the Moon. With only the use of conventional weapons … By that not occurring it very clearly does demonstrate the US cares about other than it or it's allies' lives. |
Bangorstu | 01 Dec 2016 10:34 a.m. PST |
You're not at war with the Syrians…. Though I shouldn't be surprised that you don't think killing non-American soldiers isn't anything to actually be remotely bothered about. There's no standard like a double one. |
Legion 4 | 01 Dec 2016 4:20 p.m. PST |
You're not at war with the Syrians…. The Syrians are not are allies and support groups like Hezbollah. That is enough for me … Though I shouldn't be surprised that you don't think killing non-American soldiers isn't anything to actually be remotely bothered about. Re-read my post. I said Yes the US does care about it's own people and allies more than others. US allies albeit not Americans, are very much cared about by the US. THEY ARE OUR ALLIES … you must see that ? don't think killing non-American soldiers isn't anything to actually be remotely bothered about. Well I'm not really that bothered if the Syrians for example, are killed. For the reasons I mentioned already: Not allies Supports islamists like Hezbollah You can add Iran to that list as well. Shall I start a list for you ? Soldiers that L4 is not bothered about if Killed : Syrians Iranians The Taliban Radical fanatical islamists, terrorists, jihadis Off the top of my head. But even you should see where I'm coming from … And before you get your pitch fork and torch. It has nothing to do which their religion. Only their predilection for wanting kill Americans AND OUR ALLIES … Remember … it is a GWOT … Whether you like/see it or not. If this is a double standard as you stated. Then yes, it is a double standard and I'm comfortable with it … |
Deadles | 01 Dec 2016 4:32 p.m. PST |
The Syrians are not are allies and support groups like Hezbollah. Your country is allied with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE. Saudis attacked New York and Washington and killed thousands of Americans. USA is now allowing US citizens to sue Saudi Arabia for the attacks. Qatar was (is still?) was one of main creators and supporters of ISIS. Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar are helping Al Qaeda gain strength in Yemen. The US and UK provide munitions, ISTAR and even air refuelling to Arab forces helping Al Qaeda.
USA and NATO provided air support to Al Qaeda in Libya. Give me the Syrians and Hezbollah any day. At least they're containable unlike the wealthy and connected Sunni extremists.
If the USA really wanted to destroy terrorist powerbases they would've knocked out the rich oil states and not destroyed Libya, Iraq and help destroy Syria and Yemen.
However Western cowardice strikes again.
Re-read my post. I said Yes the US does care about it's own people and allies more than others. US allies albeit not Americans, are very much cared about by the US. THEY ARE OUR ALLIES Smarter people than you and I have commented about the dangers of blindly following alliances. And the US has been blindly sticking to it's terrorist supporting allies regardless of the actions perpetuated by those "allies" that harm US interests. If your best friend is helping a burglar enter your house and rob you, should you still be friends?
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Legion 4 | 01 Dec 2016 4:52 p.m. PST |
Well aware of all that. And if I was going to be more accurate. The Saudis and their other oil rich kingdoms should be on my list too. My list was in response to stu's over-the-top post to sling at the US again … still … always. However, is it very unfortunate that geopolitics, Realpolitik, etc., is still a fact of life among politicians, etc. However, the US was not the only one in this paradigm. So yes, some would say Western cowardice is in effect. But I don't know if the world is ready for another major war. That would certainly be called by many in the moslem world as another "Crusade". Now in saying that, some in the West forgot that in the past a few times islam has tried to turn Europe into part of it's Caliphate. And convert the West to islam. Mostly by the sword. So I hope the world has grown out that of the sort of thing. Especially most of the moslem world. But I may be wrong … |
Legion 4 | 01 Dec 2016 5:01 p.m. PST |
Smarter people than you and I have commented about the dangers of blindly following alliances. Again, well aware of that. I'm a student of history too. But many here that don't consider me "smart" … And the US has been blindly sticking to it's terrorist supporting allies regardless of the actions perpetuated by those "allies" that harm US interests.
Hopefully that will change in the near future, but that may just be wishful thinking. And again re-read my comments about geopolitics, etc. If your best friend is helping a burglar enter your house and rob you, should you still be friends?
There are two trains of thought on that … The enemy of my enemy is my friend. But I think more accurately … The enemy of my enemy is still my enemy. If my best friend was helping a burglar trying rob my house. I have 2 dead bodies for the authorities to deal with. I have an AR-15. Now you must know that your scenario is a bit simplistic. But I see the point you are trying to make. And again, geopolitics is not generally so black & white, I'd think, yes ? |
Deadles | 01 Dec 2016 5:02 p.m. PST |
I don't know how much Realpolitick is left in the middle east (other than weapons sales). The invasion of Iraq dug a massive hole for the US/Western . And now they are being outmanoeuvred by the Arab oil states, the Russians, the Iranians and even the Turks. I am not entirely sure what Western objectives in the region are any more. They used to be to guarantee oil supplies but that's kinda failing with disruption to Iraqi supplies and increasing Sunni-Shia hostility. It used to also involve countering USSR (however Russians are back and not just in Syria), countering Iran (also failed), ensuring regional stability (epic fail). Supporting the Saudi and co just helps cement their position as leaders of Islam, an Islam that is radical. It has helped Islamification of Europe via mass immigration. It ensures future terrorism and future instability.
As stated not much realpolitick – just some confused notion of allegiance. It's almost like a battered housewife staying with an abusive husband due to some nostalgic notion of past marital bliss. Basically it's time for Westerners to figure out what they want and then grow a set and do something about it in a determined way
This is not going to happen. West is currently rudderless and increasingly spineless. |
Legion 4 | 01 Dec 2016 5:06 p.m. PST |
I generally agree with that. And yes, the West needs to get it's act together, and their wired tight. But as we both know … that won't happen anytime soon … if ever … |