"What if the Germans won World War One?" Topic

If the Germans had won WWI, how would the 20th Century history have changed?

For the sake of discussion, let's say that the French fail to quell the ranks after the French Mutiny and the Germans take advantage, causing a general collapse of the French lines. The British decide that going it alone isn't feasible and withdraw their forces in good order while making peace overtures with Germany (no forced retreat, no Dunkirk like scramble to rescue the forces- they are simply able to take their kit and go home).

In this scenario, we'll say this all happens during the end of 1916 and into the early months of 1917.

I won't mention what happens to Russia, though I have my own thoughts there. The revolution happened historically in the early months of 1917, but you make the call- how does the 20th Century shape up in this type of end to The Great War?

No NSDAP for one. The French might have gone fascist instead of the Germans. They were certainly anti-Semitic.

I'll buck the typical trends and say maybe things don't change an awful lot:

Germany might not fall into the Nazi terror, but it remains an authoritarian power run by a military elite, and more importantly one that has not been proven wrong.

France will be bitter and looking for revenge (and likely subject to intense punishments)

Russia and Austria are still doomed but it may take another 10 years before they dissolve to internal dissent.

The US still takes the world stage and may in fact do so quicker as there's less isolationist sentiment.

The Spanish flu might not hit quite as brutally, on the flipside.

Or so I think :)

I'm going to amend my own OP and ask as well the following…

"Would the rest of the century after the situation I've laid out have been more or less bloody than it turned out to be?"

You can look up the German war objectives on line.
Oddly enough, they did not formulate any until after the war started.
Obviously Alsace Lorraine stays German. Belgium and Luxembourg annexed.
Many French colonies taken over by Germany. British too, but possibly not by your scenario.

"Stab in the Back" mentality now goes to the French. Revanchist mentality goes into overdrive. Perfidious Albion leaves France in the lurch.
I once read that the Jews were more assimilated in Germany than anywhere else. The Dreyfus Affair shows how powerful anti Semitism already was in France. So….

I see the results as a very bitter France. But she is not able to take revenge like Germany did because she will start out much weaker. France will also not see Britain as a reliable ally. So she is isolated and too weak to get revenge.

Russia will be taken out with no need for a sealed train.

Germany will be obnoxious but not necessarily Evil.

No need for unrestricted submarine warfare at the OP's timeline, so no excuse for Wilson to stick his self righteous nose into it.

It just MIGHT have been a better result in terms of body count.

If the Sick Man of Europe survived we might all be better off now, presuming Turkey never managed to unite its various truculent clients.

A lot actually depends on when the 'Allies' war effort fails. There were plenty of opportunities early on, the BEF nearly collapsed until Horace Smith-Dorrien disobeyed orders to keep retreating and stood at Le Cateau – a Dunkirk like collapse and retreat was very much on the cards. There was another pivotal moment – the Battle of the Marne – if the French had failed to stand or the Germans had been a bit quicker it would have been 1870 all over again.

If the Germans had 'won' early there would have been less 'bad blood' – beyond what already existed. Also a lot less excuse for reparations or forfeiture of colonies.

As for Turkey, likely no fall of the monarchy and they would have kept the Middle East largely inline, albeit brutally. Even if the Young Turks managed to found a secular republic things would likely have been more stable.

No ww2, nazis, atomic bombs, middle east quagmire, etc

If I recall correctly, the Kaiser got cold feet at the very end of mobilization and considered scrapping the move through Belgium to keep the British out and simply hold in the West until Russia was defeated. If the British stay out, Russia and France lose and their bitter peace sets the stage for WW2, just a different one.

The Germans did win the east vs. Russia but lost the west. I agree there would likely be no WWII but Britain and America would still oppose Germany. Britain will rule the oceans and America will have her industrial might.

An alternate Cold War will ensue following WWI between the Germany empire on the European continent and the US/UK alliance.

If Austria stays, one must also consider the national aspirations of the various people of Eastern Europe, many of which were at a boiling point already.

Wow. A very interesting counter-factual, with possibilities strewn out in all directions. I can't add more than what has already been mooted. I think this is much more difficult to read than the WWII "what if's". Just the idea of a 21st century world with most of Europe still aligned in large lumpy empires headed by (constitutional) monarchs is a major sea change. And a Middle East still dominated by an Ottoman sultan? Boggles the mind what a different place we'd be living in.

Just for the record, there was no alliance between the United States and Britain (or any other power, for that matter) before World War I. Therefore, if Germany had pulled out a win before unrestricted submarine warfare completely alienated the United States, the subsequent international stance of the U.S becomes something of a wild card. There might have been a continued isolationist stance, but there could equally have been a drive to form a new anti-German alliance. The only thing I feel confident of is that America would never have cozied up with Imperial Germany.

But what does Japan do?

JohnG

I'll buck the typical trends and say maybe things don't change an awful lot:

Germany might not fall into the Nazi terror, but it remains an authoritarian power run by a military elite, and more importantly one that has not been proven wrong.

Exactly.
German Empire was evil – Herero would agree.
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In reality, Germany planned to annex about 30,000 km˛ from former Congress Poland for German colonisation. Most of the Polish population of those territories (about 2,000,000 people) was to be expelled into a small Polish puppet state. The remaining population was to be used as agricultural labour for new German colonists.

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