miniMo | 04 Aug 2016 7:57 a.m. PST |
I was just checking today's GBP:USD rates and noticed the pound was starting a noticeable drop just this morning! Double-checked the financial news and it appears that Britain has just started a surprise big program of printing more money. This bodes well for putting off purchases for a bit. Don't worry Skytrex and Peter Pig, I'll buy tanks from you eventually. But I'll wait for the international-buyers' sale price to continue dropping first ^,^ For folks watching the score at home: Pound ended yesterday at $1.33 USD, this morning at $1.31 USD and dropping. |
Big Red | 04 Aug 2016 8:23 a.m. PST |
It appears that Warlord Games might still using $1.60 USD to the GB Pound exchange rate on their website. |
vexillia | 04 Aug 2016 8:28 a.m. PST |
Don't wait too long. Metal is priced in USD. As Sterling drops the cost of metal rises. Then the retail price goes up. There will be sweet spot after Sterling has fallen but before the manufacturer has had to buy any more raw material and increase their prices. Good luck. -- Martin Stephenson Vexillia: Wargames Miniatures & Accessories Shop | Rules | eBay | Twitter |
Martin Rapier | 04 Aug 2016 8:45 a.m. PST |
"Double-checked the financial news and it appears that Britain has just started a surprise big program of printing more money." It wasn't exactly a surprise and has been signposted for weeks. |
wrgmr1 | 04 Aug 2016 9:00 a.m. PST |
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Rapier Miniatures | 04 Aug 2016 9:18 a.m. PST |
Actually, buy now, with all the economic uncertainty around in the UK, it would not surprise me to see a few close their doors to business. |
Zargon | 04 Aug 2016 9:35 a.m. PST |
Tosh to gloom and doom, people were buying before this so-called downward spiral and they will do so for what the want now, perhaps an extra few items but I don't see mass greed buying happening soon. Why? we all still don't have oodles to spend in our own countries never mind luxury hobby items. That said I did have a bit spare this time round and par took of the feeding frenzy bvut only on sale items in main. |
VVV reply | 04 Aug 2016 9:35 a.m. PST |
Its just a result of the collapse of the British economy after the vote to leave the EU. And as yet nothing as happened. Just wait until the UK actually starts to leave the EU, then it will probably be dollar pound parity. But lots of people are still staying that the UK is heading into a bright new future :) |
jeffreyw3 | 04 Aug 2016 9:38 a.m. PST |
As a note, us 'Muricans end up paying whatever rate the credit card or PayPal decides to use and make money on. |
Mako11 | 04 Aug 2016 10:06 a.m. PST |
Everyone's printing money. Pallet loads of the stuff……. |
Tgerritsen | 04 Aug 2016 10:17 a.m. PST |
How likely is dollar to pound parity? I heard an ex-pat British journalist (who was admittedly very anti Brexit) saying over the weekend that this was pretty much a certainty in the coming months. Behind all the doom and gloom, how likely is that really? |
Extra Crispy | 04 Aug 2016 10:26 a.m. PST |
Anyone claiming to know what will happen is fooling themselves. Credit Cards are usually pegged to the market though many charge a fee to do the conversion on top. Check your account. But the pound has been around $1.33 USD for a month now. Dropping less than 2% hardly encourages my buying habits… |
MajorB | 04 Aug 2016 10:49 a.m. PST |
It's just a result of the collapse of the British economy after the vote to leave the EU. How is a FTSE 100 index of 6,740.16 (+1.59% on the day) symptomatic of a collapse of the British economy? |
miniMo | 04 Aug 2016 11:30 a.m. PST |
My credit cards and paypal are always pretty close to the going rate. Less than a 2% drop isn't big. Except that it made that drop in one morning. So I'm willing to ride out the tide awhile to see if lands at a sweeter spot soon. Financial wheelers and dealers are a superstitious lot and easily prone to flights of panic. So this is a good omen for consumers. Certainly doesn't look like it's going to bounce above $1.33 USD anytime soon. I want to buy about £50.00 GBP-£200 worth of tanks sometime in the coming months, so any bigger drop will make an impact. That could certainly tip me towards buying them all at once. Rather than making the [ridiculous] calculation that I don't really need that many more little tanks…. Martin, thanks for the note on metal prices. I've got plenty of little tanks to paint right now. |
Who asked this joker | 04 Aug 2016 11:35 a.m. PST |
It's been as low as $1.31 USD before today. I suspect you are seeing normal fluctuation for the times. It appears that Warlord Games might still using $1.60 USD USD to the GB Pound exchange rate on their website. Warlord and GW both set their own USand EU pricing so the lower exchange rate kind of works in their favor for US and European customers. |
Mako11 | 04 Aug 2016 11:35 a.m. PST |
I've heard predictions of $1.20 USD per GBP, and given more UK easing and money printing, wouldn't be surprised about that, especially if the US eventually can raise interest rates 0.25%. Of course, given such anemic growth here, that's not likely in the near term. |
steamingdave47 | 04 Aug 2016 12:50 p.m. PST |
@ MajorB. The FTSE 100 is mainly made up of companies which get most of their earnings outside the UK. When these overseas earnings are converted to sterling, they are worth more in sterling than they were. A more accurate indication of the strength of the economy is the smaller companies, such as those in the FTSE250. You might also like to take look at the Purchasing Managers' Index, which gives an indication of the optimism/ pessimism of those at the " sharp end". Personally, I think we just stay cool and wait and see what happens two or three years down the line. |
Oh Bugger | 04 Aug 2016 1:02 p.m. PST |
Yeah if you want to keep an eye on it those are more informative. |
MajorB | 04 Aug 2016 1:33 p.m. PST |
Well if you don't think the FTSE 100 is a good indicator of economic health (even though the BBC seem to think it is), how about GDP? According to the ONS the GDP was 2.2% higher in Quarter 2 2016 compared with the same quarter a year ago. Not only that but the Bank of England has predicted today that growth for 2017 will be 0.8%. So where is this collapse of the British economy? The pound sterling has fallen by 2% against the dollar. So what? It's done that many times before. In fact a lesser value pound makes our goods cheaper on the world market, so exports should increase and also improve our trade balance. |
MajorB | 04 Aug 2016 1:38 p.m. PST |
You might also like to take look at the Purchasing Managers' Index, which gives an indication of the optimism/ pessimism of those at the " sharp end". Currently at 52.60 for July 2016. A value above 50 indicates an improvement. |
MajorB | 04 Aug 2016 1:43 p.m. PST |
A more accurate indication of the strength of the economy is the smaller companies, such as those in the FTSE250. FTSE 250 at 17,244.32 +247.19 It has been at around that level for at least the last year apart from a dip in Feb 2016 and another shorter dip around the end of June. |
Weasel | 04 Aug 2016 2:17 p.m. PST |
If we get parity, I'm starting a 2mm army :) |
VVV reply | 04 Aug 2016 2:20 p.m. PST |
"How is a FTSE 100 index of 6,740.16 (+1.59% on the day) symptomatic of a collapse of the British economy?" If the pound drops its cheaper for people using other currencies to buy shares (or wargame figures). Certainly my sales to USA and Europe are booming – and if I hang on to my euros/dollars, they rise in value against the pound. |
Lucius | 04 Aug 2016 2:29 p.m. PST |
If it hits parity, I'm going to buy the Perry twins. Not their miniatures. I mean the actual guys. Then I can finally make them do Byzantines and Sassanids. |
Rapier Miniatures | 04 Aug 2016 2:45 p.m. PST |
That 0.8% figure of GDP is revised down from 2.5% in the statement just issued. In the last 6 years Britain has had 2 recession periods and a depression and is heading into another recession. Add into that the choking of foreign investment that is already happening and things look bleak. |
steamingdave47 | 04 Aug 2016 2:47 p.m. PST |
@Major B. The GDP figures you quote are almost entirely pre June 23rd, so tell us nothing about the likely trajectory of the economy after the Brexit vote. Many of those whose job it is to know about these things are predicting a slowdown in GDP growth and, possibly, an actual recession. PMI was actually 48.2 in July, from June figure of 52.4. As you say, figure above 50 indicates Optimism, below 50 the converse. All of these indicators are volatile. We have not actually left the EU yet, so, as I said, I suggest we see how things are in 2 or 3 years. link As for a fall in the pound helping the economy; that might work if we did not have to import raw materials to produce the few manufactured goods that we still produce. If the pound is low, those raw materials, as well as much of our oil, gas etc have to be bought in using cheaper pounds so effectively costing more. |
Zagloba | 04 Aug 2016 3:08 p.m. PST |
For me the best part about the pound going down is that shipping goes down as well as product cost. GB and Ainsty have been the winners so far, with Pendraken and Brigade Models in the queue for next payday. |
Zargon | 04 Aug 2016 3:34 p.m. PST |
I think I'll do my best to buy more in the near future and help support the economy in the hope those nay sayers get to eat their words, here's hoping its clad in steel. |
freewargamesrules | 04 Aug 2016 4:05 p.m. PST |
Heard a financial advisor talking on the radio today and USA financial figures are not good for last month. He fears that with the uncertainty of the Clinton-Trump election coming up USA may go into Recession next month and if that happens we are all doomed….I feel a zombie apocalypse coming. Start hoarding food and weapons! |
Mako11 | 04 Aug 2016 5:07 p.m. PST |
$1.43 USD – $1.45 USD per GBP to $1.31 USD is a lot more than a 2% fall. |
abelp01 | 04 Aug 2016 5:23 p.m. PST |
I'd like to lose some pounds… |
Sapphon | 04 Aug 2016 5:55 p.m. PST |
I could be wrong, but I have read that increasing the money supply can lead to inflation. There is more money in the system but the cost of goods also rise in relation. We wind up buying the same number of items, but at a higher cost. Initially there can be a benefit but depending upon what happens nationally, and globally, this can turn quickly. I will also add that this is not a surprise. Central Banks increase/decrease money circulation with global intent. You will probably begin to see other Central Banks making changes over the next few week/months in response. |
Mako11 | 04 Aug 2016 8:05 p.m. PST |
Normally, that'd be the case, but right now the global economy is so bad they're trying to stave off "deflation", and aren't worried about inflation. The Fed is pumping $1 USD TRILLION a year into the stock market to keep it propped up, and has been for a very long time now. Inflation is hitting in a major way in some areas though, e.g. the prices of food and other commodities, which have doubled, or quadrupled in many cases, e.g. beef, poultry and seafood, dairy products, fruits and vegetables, etc., etc.. Automobile prices are skyrocketing too, due to increase regulations and commodities prices. |
ChargeSir | 04 Aug 2016 10:47 p.m. PST |
MajorB wrote: Currently at 52.60 for July 2016. A value above 50 indicates an improvement. That is the PMI for the USA not the UK. The U.K. Is sitting at 48.2 for July 2016 |
steamingdave47 | 05 Aug 2016 5:37 a.m. PST |
Final word? Thanks to all of our cousins overseas, keep spending your various kinds of dollars, euros, whatever currency, on the products of our brilliant British wargaming industry |
Martin Rapier | 05 Aug 2016 6:56 a.m. PST |
"But lots of people are still staying that the UK is heading into a bright new future :)" Hahahahaha. I laughed so much I think I wet myself. I am sure we will recover from the shock of it all eventually, but it will be another lost decade on top of the one we are literally only just crawling out of. Meanwhile, just how big can our current account deficit and national debt really get? Voting for a pink unicorn doesn't mean you are actually going to get one. |
MajorB | 05 Aug 2016 11:01 a.m. PST |
MajorB wrote: Currently at 52.60 for July 2016. A value above 50 indicates an improvement. That is the PMI for the USA not the UK. The U.K. Is sitting at 48.2 for July 2016
Oops. My bad. |
MajorB | 05 Aug 2016 11:02 a.m. PST |
Meanwhile, just how big can our current account deficit and national debt really get? As big as you like as long as we can service the debt. |
MajorB | 05 Aug 2016 11:03 a.m. PST |
All of these indicators are volatile. We have not actually left the EU yet, so, as I said, I suggest we see how things are in 2 or 3 years. Precisely. Just saying the UK PMI is at 48.2 for July 2016 does not take into account the historic data or the longer term effects. |
MajorB | 05 Aug 2016 11:05 a.m. PST |
BTW, the Pound is steady at $1.31 USD today. And the FTSE 250 gained another 1.28% |
ChargeSir | 05 Aug 2016 1:33 p.m. PST |
Looking at Forex and markets on a daily basis can be misleading, no one knows what the impact will be, it is too soon to claim either way. I have my worries on the medium term effect of credit ratings and inflationary pressures, but hoping I am wrong. However what I am doing is avoiding discussions with people who are saying everything is rosy or everything has fallen over a cliff ( and I am not saying that about anyone on here btw) as we are undergoing changes and they take time to work through. In the last month I have been told things to my face which are frankly bonkers and fly in the face of economic reality but I have quickly decided that if you wrestle with a pig you just get covered in something ! I am more concerned with the viewpoint that we don't trust experts anymore and if 99% of experts say one thing that you have to give equal weight to the other 1% , or we can just say we have enough of experts. |
VVV reply | 05 Aug 2016 3:29 p.m. PST |
Oh I think you can fairly much take it as read that Britain is doomed under the plan to leave the EU. Britain leaves the EU and takes prepares to compete on the world markets with the likes of China and USA (and of course EU). I just don't see the USP where Britain is supposed to have an advantage. And there is no plan of to what we are to do yet (the farmers are real interested in what will replace their CAP payments). Anyone know of a project that worked without a plan? |
ChargeSir | 05 Aug 2016 10:56 p.m. PST |
I can agree a plan would be good. |
Fighting 15s | 06 Aug 2016 2:49 a.m. PST |
I am sure we will recover from the shock of it all eventually I hope so. Monthly expenses at Fighting 15s shot up overnight because of the effect of the currency exchange rates on my orders for stock from overseas and on the price of raw materials. That dollar exchange rate figure that everyone's quoting above of around USD1.31 to 1.33 to the pound, that's the average exchange rate. It's not the actual exchange rate, particularly after commission. What you'll get is worse than that. Although exchange rates may have been at similar levels before (the Oz dollar rate against the pound has been far worse than at present), they usually get there gradually, not catastrophically, and a small business can adjust month by month and survive (it's the difference between falling off a cliff without a rope and abseiling). The overnight collapse of sterling had a dramatic effect because basically it impacts heavily on cash flow. The result? A number of business decisions on prices (up) and stock orders (smaller) that I did not want to make because ultimately they have negative consequences, and because I had been hoping to go the other way (prices down; stock orders up) Piddly fluctuations of a few cents in the exchange rate really don't matter. What the stock market does in comparison with the exchange rate really doesn't matter as far as immediate costs to a small business are concerned. Effect of the FTSE 100 or 250 bouncing back? None. Effect of a country's actual or projected economic growth rate? Negligible in a hobby-related business (and true in hobbies other than wargaming). Hobbyists continue to buy, placing small orders throughout a recession because it's a cost-effective means of having something to do. Whether that will continue to be true of EU customers outside the UK once Brexit happens and customs collection fees for cross-border sales become the norm is the issue: it is not attractive if 20 quid of figures suddenly becomes 30 quid of figures thanks to a tax collection fee (the EU threshold for tax on imports is typically 15 euros, BTW, which is very low). |
miniMo | 09 Aug 2016 9:39 a.m. PST |
The slow dribble continues. Edging close to $1.29 USD today. Watching the market rates keeps me entertained enough for now that it's at least good for keeping me from ordering too many more models before I've pretty well caught up on the kits on hand. |
1815Guy | 10 Aug 2016 9:27 a.m. PST |
At least I can make a dent in my Pewter mountain if the prices go up. Currently my rafters are straining under the weight, and all that valuable pewter has put £3,000.00 GBP on the value of my house……. |
1815Guy | 10 Aug 2016 9:31 a.m. PST |
BTW, the US interest rates have been threatening to rise since the Spring. If and when it does, the likelihood of parity increases. The Euro, of course, is rising as a currency, just as we are dropping the £ against it. Bit of a bummer for trips to Antwerp, Hamburg, and other EU shows. |
1815Guy | 10 Aug 2016 9:34 a.m. PST |
And yes, it's going to be at least 2021 before we trigger article 50, if at all, and we then get a further decade of austerity while money is wasted on prestige projects which dont really drive the UK economy. |