"Let's talk numbers" Topic

Now that Historiocn 16 is in the record books, how did the attendance numbers look? More importantly, was there enough business to keep the vendors coming back?

Seemed like a larger crowd to us, and the parking area seemed crowded most of the time. We were too busy for me to get away from the booth much during the day. We will definitely be back. Business was great as usual for Historicon.

As long as there was enough business to keep the vendors happy then I would consider that a successful convention. So far I'm happy you guys had strong sales!

At the BOD meeting on Sunday morning, the convention director reported that attendance was almost exactly the same as the prior two years.

Respectfully,
John Spiess
Treasurer, HMGS, Inc.

Saturday attendance last year was the issue for many of us. It was just abysmal and the numbers reflected that.

This year, Saturday was a normal one (Thankfully.)

However, I did note that on Saturday night from 7pm on there were only 17 games scheduled. That seemed very light and it proved itself with attendance in the hall.

Compared to a good crowd and the schedule for Thursday and Friday being almost full.

I take it to mean that many went home on Saturday rather than stay overnight and game late with a return on Sunday.

Numbers? Probably around same as last year, I will wait for the Treasurers report.

I saw lots of empty tables in main gaming hall Saturday evening, but all my games were full throughout the weekend. I had to squeeze a few more in that wanted to play.

When I went around for Awards, I saw there was a good crowd on Friday morning and Saturday morning.

I guess Saturday evening has become "the new" travel day. I still had a blast at the show seeing old friends and making new ones.

Only 17 games Saturday evening? That's too bad.

The HAWKs ran 6 games Saturday evening (include one aimed at kids, Mr. Smee's Revenge) and 2 on Sunday. All were overflowing. I had to let a couple of extra people into my Saturday evening games, and Eric Schlegel had 10 or more people in his Sunday AM game in addition to Duncan Adams' six in his WWII naval game. I was prepared to throw down a 10mm chariot race game using Roman Circus (which takes five minutes to set up, ten minutes to explain, and handles up to 12 players) if there was a glut of unsubscribed gamers Sunday morning.

I can see Saturday evening as the travel day for folks who live North of DC. Going north Saturday evening vs. Sunday afternoon can cut hours off your drive. I hit LOTS of traffic going home at 1300 on Sunday -- and that was taking the "back way" along 301 instead of the I-95 parking lot.

Brigade,

I also thought that the main gaming hall looked light on Saturday night. The side rooms (Ballrooms A-F), on the other hand, seemed to be packed. While that wouldn't affect the total number of games on offer after 7:00 on Saturday, it did, I think contribute to the emptier feel in the main hall.

Just a thought.

At the BOD meeting on Sunday morning, the convention director reported that attendance was almost exactly the same as the prior two years.

In my mind, that's still a problem.

Saturday attendance last year was the issue for many of us. It was just abysmal and the numbers reflected that.

This year, Saturday was a normal one (Thankfully.)

However, I did note that on Saturday night from 7pm on there were only 17 games scheduled. That seemed very light and it proved itself with attendance in the hall.

Compared to a good crowd and the schedule for Thursday and Friday being almost full.

I take it to mean that many went home on Saturday rather than stay overnight and game late with a return on Sunday.

Lon, I'm so happy the dealers reported doing well. Nothing worse than working hard, preparing and watching sales plummet. I hope the positive spending trend continues.

I guess Saturday evening has become "the new" travel day.

I wonder if, on average, more people drive longer distances to attend Historicon in Fredericksburg and some get a head start on their way home.

Conversely, my friend living in Virginia, saves a hotel fee by leaving at the end of Saturday. We had finished a long 5 hour game and were relaxing at dinner later. When he left for home, I was too tired to check out what was going on at the Con by then.

Louisville Ky to Fredricksburg Va about 10 hours- left Sunday Am, left Saturday night to have dinner with my son in laws dah who lives in Chancellorsville, it seemed the main hall had an exodus about 17:45 pm. I was talking to some guys playing L'art de Guerre over by the FOW tourney and we looked up and biiiiiiiiig empty space. Wow

Yeah, the main gaming area, which was tough to walk through on Friday night, was almost empty on Saturday night.

It seemed like attendance was better than last year from the people in the hall Friday night and the parking lot being packed, but I will believe the numbers that say it wasn't different.

It certainly felt like there were more people than last year.

I can see Saturday evening as the travel day for folks who live North of DC. Going north Saturday evening vs. Sunday afternoon can cut hours off your drive. I hit LOTS of traffic going home at 1300 on Sunday -- and that was taking the "back way" along 301 instead of the I-95 parking lot.

I think Buck has something (above). I used to live in Silver Spring, MD, so am familiar with the summer traffic on I-95 and environs. I was thinking that If I still lived in the region and attended H-con, I would be heading out on Saturday evening as well.

I ran multiple games everyday and Thursday, Friday and Sat am all felt a bit busier than last year from my limited perspective (my table was EA-68 was was in the back left of the main gaming hall when facing in from the front)

Sat PM cleared out significantly. I had the last scheduled game in the PEL to start sat evening at 9:00pm – usually there a much larger number of late games on Sat night

Overall, I thought it was a great convention and really appreciate all the hard work the volunteers put in to let the rest of play with our toys for a few days

My sales were very bad except for Saturday. Barely broke even for the weekend. I can't keep coming with sales like that.

Scott Washburn
PaperTerrain

After several years of H'con in VA, it's clear to some of us that attendance patterns are different from the HMGS conventions in PA.

I've attended all three shows the last several years. I've run games at each on different days and bought flea market tables at each convention on different days.

In my experience, the Saturday "day tripper" count is MUCH higher in PA compared to VA. I sit in the flea market on Saturday in both locations and look at badges while they go by my table. (Badges are different colors.) The "Saturday" badges are much more common at Cold Wars and Fall In.

I'm not privy to the exact numbers, but my impression is that about half of all attendees for H'con are at the convention by Weds. night. (You can tell by the line for badges.) This makes Thursday the best day for the flea market and (perhaps) the vendor hall for H'con, compared to Saturday for Cold Wars and Fall In.

As far as games are concerned, others may disagree but there are not enough players on Saturday at H'con (and maybe the other days also) to support the roughly 500 games offered at the convention. The main gaming hall was mostly empty by late Saturday afternoon. (At some point, all the tournament players leave.) I ran a game Sat. night which was full. Two other games near me were also well attended, but that was about it.

Game attendance would not matter if HMGS didn't have to pay for the tables and chairs, but it does, to the tune of about $20 USDk+/- in rental fees. FYI, some of the new locations under consideration for future conventions offer free tables and chairs.

The reason the club rooms were busy on Sat. night was because game club members hang around on Sat. to play in each others games, share a few beverages and pack up together before departing on Sunday morning. Also, some clubs like the HAWKS offer games on Sunday. GMs not affiliated with clubs have mainly left the building by Sat. afternoon.

When it comes to the ride home from H'con, my theory is that those with the shorter ride leave on Saturday (and save the hotel cost), while those with the longer ride don't depart until Sunday morning.

Whatever the final numbers for this year turn out to be, Historicon is at a very expensive location, relative to the other conventions, with barely enough attendance to cover its costs. If that trend continues, the issue for HMGS then becomes whether a convention should remain at a location where it loses money. Not a pretty prospect.

Like I said before, we'll see.

As was made clear in the presentation we are budgeting our cons to break even since we have a more than adequate cash reserve. Note that CW16 barely made it into the black. HCON made 30K each of the first two years and if we tightened back down on expenses I could get that back to 20K.

This makes Thursday the best day for the flea market

And I thought the Thursday flea market was the worst one. Not even close to full and with nothing that caught my eye. I was in and out in less than 5 minutes.

As for people saying Saturday evening was light, yes I noticed this too. Saturday night in Distlefink this past Cold Wars was shockingly empty too. You could hear people all the way in the back of the room talking. I hope this isn't going to be a recurring trend.

People will oppose this, but I think its time to make Sunday free. Not only was there no games open for any of us to play in, it might give dealers a small boost from locals making an appearance Sunday morning. Hopefully more people would be around to play some games and entice people to stick around.

Of course CW16 had a significant snowstorm that drove down attendance substantially…. But it still broke even (barely).

Do many of our shows merely break even?

TRU

There was no snow storm at CW16. That was CW15……………

You are right BTC, I stand corrected.

The threat of "snow-mageddon" that the weathermen got all wrong. (big surprise) There were a number of people that waved off on final approach.

TMP link

Then there is the whole bankrupcy, auction, sale, violation thing that was going on at the Host early this year. Not a very reassuring time.

TRU

Kevin,
Where do you hope to find $20 USDK in cost savings? Where do you intend to cut?

Staff? Advertising? Sound dampening? Which speakers or classes do you cut?

How do you get to $20 USDK without draconian cuts?

There is also the matter that attendance has never rebounded back to the last Valley Forge show attendance of 2900. Where are we today about 2400? I'd be curious to see this years final attendance numbers.

TRU

Absolutely sure that attendance was up……

Reposting historical numbers of interest:

Hcon:

2007 Host – 3,272
2008 Host – 3.667
2009 Host – 3,565
2010 VFCC – 2,980
2011 VFCC – 2,958

2014 FCC – 2,452
2015 FCC – 2,402

For historical reference:

1999 Hcon – 2,482
2004 Hcon – 3,470

Other points of reference:

CW 2002 – 2,249
FI 2002 – 1,954

Looking at the 2007, 2008, and 2009 numbers, it just points out what a good location the Host was, especially since 2008 and especially 2009 were right in the middle of nasty economic times.

Now, before the Salem Host hunters out there come at me with torches and pitchforks, I do not dispute that the facility has declined nearly to the point of ruin (though that was not really the case in 2009). My point is just, that if the old girl really does get a half decent renovation, there really shouldn't be any question of taking the show back there.

Poniatowski,
"Absolutely sure that attendance was up…." by how much?

Inquiring minds would like to know.

TRU

Historygamer:

What are the stats for the years 2012 and 2013?

I don't think I have those years. I used to work for the BoDs on the Financial Oversight Committiee. I compiled a ten year trend at the time for them so they could see where they had been attenacne-wise, and where they were currently.

Kevin or any other BoD member has those numbers, if they'd like to share. My understanding is that Hcon has lost attendance every year at the FCC save one. Last year my understanding was it lost about 50 more, but I can't say about this year.

It was reported on TMP by someone attending the membership meeting that the CD was quoted as saying attendance was about the same as last year.

What is kind of disappointing is how attendance really hasn't gone anywhere for all the cons when you look at past year numbers.

"What is kind of disappointing is how attendance really hasn't gone anywhere for all the cons when you look at past year numbers."

Which is an indicator that the hobby in general is flat, not a lot of new people coming in, while at the same time it's greying and we're losing people as they get older, get sick and pass away.

I'm seeing the same thing at the toy soldier shows, the numbers are either flat or are dropping.

The issues with numbers at the conventions has less to do with location and more to do with Father time marching on.

It's sad, but it's the reality.

I bought a huge toy soldier collection over the past weekend, the collector is 62 and has had enough, plus he's got some health issues. He has two sons, 22 and 25, their reaction to the sale of the collection "Thank God, we got our basement back, glad to see all that junk go"……………

I only went on Thursday and Friday in the daytime and the dealer area seemed light and there were a lot of empty tables in the gaming area. I can't speak for what it was like in the evening on those days.

Double G:

While anecdotal, my take is somewhat different. At the local hobby shop I see a lot of younger folks. But they don't seem interested in attending a convention. They can get product on line, game with friends at home or in the shop. In short, in their world there is no reason to go to a convention. That said, I am not sure how many even know about the convention.

Many of us grew up in a time where product came in rarely from England. The challenges of payment and shipping were usually too great to amass lots of lead figures. I travelled to the UK in the mid-80s and packed my bag full of figures to bring home. When I first went to Hcon in the late 80s I was stunned to see all that hobby stuff. The products, the games, etc.

I do not think the hobby is greying or dying out so much as it is changing. I also see nothing wrong with a majority of the attendees being older, and hopefully more affluent. There is no age requirement in the HMGS charter. People also don't die off in droves either. I know a lot of people that fit that description that don't go on a regular basis anymore to the HMGS cons. Just saying, it's not all doom and gloom, but there are some challenges. :-)

I heard that the toy soldier market is indeed changing, and interest may in fact be dying out. But that may not apply to wargaming.

You make some very valid points; there is no question that the way people shop for their hobbies is definitely changing and will continue to change going forward.

Toy soldier shows are suffering as given the choice of getting in your car, driving to the show, paying to get in, seeing things on tables that you can see online, or staying home, going onto a website and ordering, the choice is obvious.

Wargaming conventions are a different animal; sure, you can shop online just like with toy soldiers, but there is also the attraction of the gaming aspect which many attendees enjoy.

I hung out in the gaming area the three nights after the dealer hall closed, plus I've viewed many of the pictures attendees were kind enough to post; I see a lot of faces in the gaming area that I never see in the dealer hall, which is fine, they come to game and socialize, while others come to game and shop and still others come just to shop.

That's the beauty of the wargaming conventions; there is something there for everyone.

Historicon moved twice in the past 7 years and over that time, we lost 1,000 or so attendees. Was the location that critical to attendance, or can you quantify some of the lost attendees to dropping out of the hobby or getting sick and passing away?

As far as the toy soldier market and if interest is dying out; there have been toy soldiers ever since the ancient Egyptians, so it's not dying out, it too is changing.

You either accept and adapt to change or you die, it's that simple.

"I do not think the hobby is greying or dying out so much as it is changing."

YouTube link

If you look at the attendance trends presented by the BOD…
Historicon attendance has been dropping (flat for the lastf couple years) while attendance for CW and FI is generally rising. The PPT presented shows this pretty clearly.

This combined with the vastly different facility costs makes Hcon break even and FI a money maker. CW also… except for the threat of snow which may have depressed attendance in 2016 causing it to just break even this year.

TRU

"Historicon moved twice in the past 7 years and over that time, we lost 1,000 or so attendees. Was the location that critical to attendance, or can you quantify some of the lost attendees to dropping out of the hobby or getting sick and passing away?"

Well yes, we can tell. Since we have two conventions at the Host, held there for many years now, we can look at their attendance trends and compare them to Hcon held at the FCC. That would be a valid comparison, especially over the past couple of years.

Perhaps someone can post some numbers and show us for sure.

I think the best measure would be unique attendees at our shows each year. From my standpoint I would rather have 4,000 unique customers than 7,000 customers with 2,500 unique between the shows (I am sure I am in the minority – but it drives business decisions). I am sure this data is not there, but if you have the same folks attending all 3 shows, it does dilute their spending power.

In regards to gamers attending or not, I only saw a handful of gamers from my area or group at Historicon. Generally they attend with me to help, or have found that conventions get boring and are just the same old thing…..

Here is what HMGS should be doing – making a promotion video like this:

ipmsavon.org.uk/shows.php

I believe there are many factors . As a note Ive been wargaming,reenacting,modeling and collecting military weapons and militaria since the 1970s . I can rattle off case and point as to how Father Time, Social changes ,Economics etc… have impacted and will continue to impact many hobbies into the future . It is was it is ! A easy test for me is just a walk down memory lane : When I started in all these hobbies ,most of us where in our late teens to early thirties ----------NOW I go and its a bunch of guys in there 50s-80s ,same guys with a smattering of younger folks and to my surprise more women .

Look I come to Hcon from S.Florida and its a long drive for us . However if you move it to Maine or even Canada we will still try to make it as we did when it was at the Host -may she rest in peace .

I don't know where the thousand missing bodies have gone from Hcon but I surmise some have died ,some have gotten to old to travel that far or at all , some are just having a tantrum ,some can't afford all the added expense etc.

What ever the reason we may never see the GLORY DAYS of 3500 participants again – ever again no matter where we move to . Could we get a better turnout if we move nearer to a larger population base -maybe ?

I vote to move it to downtown New York City . Beside the fact that there is like 12million folks crammed in there ,its easy and cheap to fly there and the Pizza is great .

Cheers, Mark

Another item to note is the number of people who retire and move further south, or out west. The economy is changing rapidly, and much of the change is passing many people by even faster.

I also, have to agree with what Doug said above. Most of the gamers in my area no longer attend the 3 conventions because they're boring and pretty much the same old thing year after year. So why make the trip when you can stay at home and play a game!

There were several gamers I used to game with around here that due to a job loss, or other reasons simply left the area, and moved to another part of the country.

The hobby to is changing rapidly with tablets and smartphones taking the place of painted figures, charts and dice. It seems HMGS has fallen behind the power curve and has a lot of catching up to do in order to continue.

I don't have any real demographic info on the hobby, but I can say this. These posts are flashing me back to the late 80s when I first got into the hobby. And there was nothing but talk of the "aging of the hobby" and the death of minis and boardgames to technology (the PC then instead of tablets, but the thought was the same).

Now, boardgames have had a huge resurgence. The computer and Internet connected companies with their customers to the massive benefit of the hobby.

There were plenty of older gamers when I was in my 20s…and there are still older gamers (and I'm getting perilously close). But I also see more kids than I did back then, and there are plenty of younger gamers if you pay attention.

Honestly, it seems to me the cause of the decline is obvious. HMGS got a crew in charge who decided they knew it all, and they messed with something that was working. In doing so, they created confusion and bad feelings, and as a result people voted with their feet. Subsequent BoDs continued to behave in an arrogant manner, and that just made more people mad. HMGS has unfortunately lost that feeling of camaraderie it had before, the feeling that we're a small hobby and we all need to make an effort to preserve and grow it.

But honestly, it seems the new BoD is a huge improvement. Their communicativeness alone is a glaring contrast to and indictment of previous BoDs.

Fredericksburg is nice. The convention center has its issues, but you just can't beat the restaurants and stuff around it. But the hobby has voted with its feet. It is not a location that can sustain the numbers we want to see for Hcon. It has generally been a negative for the dealers (several I used to frequent are gone now). I see no reason to try and get out of next year at F'burg, but after that it has to go back, to central PA if possible. Maybe we'll even get lucky and the Host will get a facelift.

A large number of my gaming cronies from New England, who USED to regularly attend HCon, have stopped doing so since its relocation to F'burg. They are not dead or crippled or in the extremis of advanced age; they are not penniless.

They stopped coming simply because the 10-12 hour drive is too far.

This is not rocket science. The numbers speak for themselves, and they speak loudly.

The fundamental question can be reduced to this:
Does the HMGS leadership consider abandonment of the northeast gamer community, a 30pct decline in attendance, a materially more expensive venue and a consequent fall in revenue to be a reasonable price to pay for maintaining HCon in Fredericksburg?

If so, then the underlying motives of the HMGS leadership do not appear to include the future health of HCon or (IMO) the long-term viability of HMGS itself.

B

Yep but moving the show again (especially further north than southern PA) will likely have the same effect on gamers from other areas too. I am not sure we will ever get back to the numbers we used to have. Be careful what you wish for.

Agreed; you're going to lose some of the attendees you picked up when you moved it to VA.

Are the ones who stopped attending because it was now too far away going to magically reappear and start attending again now that it's closer to them?

If a move it made, time will tell.

The Somerset Convention location seems to be near the top of the list. Let's compare:

The difference in mileage from Fredricksburg to Lancaster vs. Fredricksburg to Somerset is only 80 miles. All highway driving so the time difference should be a little over an hour difference.

Considering Historicon moved 250 miles from its original vicinity most should not find this difference extreme. Especially when you consider the difficulties in finding a suitable location that meets our needs.

The proximity to the International airport would make Somerset more accessible for airline travel.

TRU

Agreed; you're going to lose some of the attendees you picked up when you moved it to VA.

How many were picked up when it moved to VA?

Is there any way of actually knowing that, or is it purely an assumption?

Even if it were true, there's a net loss of 1000 people.

Coolyork- "I vote to move it to downtown New York City . Beside the fact that there is like 12million folks crammed in there ,its easy and cheap to fly there and the Pizza is great "

Having grown-up in downtown Manhattan, I can say with confidence that any venue and hotel rooms there would be much too expensive for HMGS or it's members and puts travelers on I-95, again.
There was a survey of attendees done, by HMGS, some years back that put a large percentage in the Eastern PA area, probably because that is where most of the cons were held.
I'll repeat my mantra- If we reduce the amount of square-footage that we ask of a venue, by as little as 10%, it would open up many venues that have a maximum available space just under what we now ask.
Given the amount of empty tournament and gaming tables that are empty at the last few cons, I don't think less space would hurt the cons. Just my 2 cents.
Having recently returned from Italy, I can testify that NYC pizza is the best.

Before I begin, let me declare that I have wandered into this hobby less than 5 years ago so I don't know all the history or motivation behind the Historicon move or the issues of HMGS and its various regional forms. I currently live in the Midwest so whether Historicon is in the north or south of the coastal region does not matter to me. It would be nice if within an hour of a major airport. I still plan to attend Historicon in the future.

Can a compromise not be reached because the endless posts of fighting about numbers/location, HMGS politics and in-fighting does not do well for the idea of camaraderie in our hobby? It is great to discuss matters constructively, but at times, certain posts are more of personal agenda.

Can a compromise not be reached?

Cold War or Fall In in the north.
Cold War or Fall in in the south.
Historicon in PA or somewhere in between to attract both north and south as well as central area. If the Host is an issue, then select a different location in PA or nearby.

As I have said, wherever Historicon will be, I will attend if I can get a decent hotel room for the event.

Lastly, deep dish Chicago pizza is better! :)

Being realistic about the space needed is a good first step . Every HMGS con I have gone to in the last 5 years has had a large surplus of space . and spread them out .

As to pizza – deep dish Chicago is the best in America .NY style is way too oily. But world wide Rio is the place(mmm Portugese influence ) , followed by Naples
disclaimer – I live in NY

I'm in favor of spreading out the venues. Let the people managing the money (BOD) decide which locations work best based on revenue and how well our needs are served.

TRU

"As to pizza – deep dish Chicago is the best in America .NY style is way too oily. But world wide Rio is the place(mmm Portugese influence ) , followed by Naples
disclaimer – I live in NY"

Okay, Grtbrt. You can bring the pizza from Rio and Naples to the Historicon 2017 and I'll bring the deep dish from Chicago. After the pizza tasting, I may have to second your claim of Rio and Naples pizza being better. :) I'll even throw in a bottle of Single Malt -- not rare, as my pocket is not deep and I have to save some money for the vendor area.

How about that for camaraderie? Cheers.