TheKing30 | 30 May 2016 6:44 a.m. PST |
link Very thoughtful. Hope it's taken as a good "lessons learned" post. |
79thPA | 30 May 2016 7:32 a.m. PST |
An interesting read. I have some great AoW products from back when they were handcrafting buildings and terrain. A sad story and a cautionary tale. |
Stosstruppen | 30 May 2016 7:52 a.m. PST |
Very well written. Thank you for your insight. |
Lucius | 30 May 2016 8:03 a.m. PST |
Great read with some solid advice. Biggest turn-off to me as a non-Kickstarter who picked up AQMF as an impulse buy, is that the rules in the starter box were a mess. If the rumor about Ironclad Games picking up the IP is true, then I hope that re-doing the rules, including some scenarios to get you to play immediately, are the highest priority. |
skipper John | 30 May 2016 8:04 a.m. PST |
Wow. Thanks for this. I've gotten the Bankruptcy Court letters and have been wondering what exactly went wrong. Again, thanks. |
Ashokmarine | 30 May 2016 8:12 a.m. PST |
I agree very well written. |
hocklermp5 | 30 May 2016 8:28 a.m. PST |
Now and then I get a legal notice concerning this horror story and my personal loss amounts to about $15.00 USD which seems trivial to say the least. I bought quite a few of the smaller resin terrain pieces and really regret I did not buy the "Oasis" complete with snake, scorpion, etc. I feel no satisfaction from their personal tragedy and I thank you, TheKing30, for your personal insight into just how this all came to pass. |
WarWizard | 30 May 2016 8:29 a.m. PST |
Excellent analysis of what occurred. I still think the AQMF games was one of the best new products to come to market in the last 10 years. Would have liked to seen it succeed. |
TheKing30 | 30 May 2016 8:49 a.m. PST |
TheKing30, for your personal insight into just how this all came to pass. This wasn't authored by me. It's a blog that I enjoy on a regular basis. I've met the author a couple of time at the HMGS conventions and he's a great guy. |
TheKing30 | 30 May 2016 8:51 a.m. PST |
I still think the AQMF games was one of the best new products to come to market in the last 10 years. Would have liked to seen it succeed. I think AoW bit off more than they could chew. If they kept this Kickstarter small and kept to the original plan, I think this would have picked up traction. We'll never know. |
Norman D Landings | 30 May 2016 9:52 a.m. PST |
One thing I have failed to grasp about the failure of AQ: Every analysis cites the failure to generate online buzz. BUT… I remember lots of online buzz about the game – people looking forward to the launch, excitement about the miniatures, news updates on the kickstarter. Frankly, I call 'Emperor's New Clothes' on any supposed absence of online buzz. If anything, I'd say the opposite is true – online hype way outdid available product. (See also: Defiance games) |
Doms Decals | 30 May 2016 9:55 a.m. PST |
Yep, a prime case of too much success unfortunately – the Kickstarter turned into enough of a behemoth that cost overruns weren't manageable. :-( What they did get out was for the most part good stuff, but I do wish they'd managed the Goliath and one or two more specialist tripods at least – hopefully it will get a new lease of life though. |
Pictors Studio | 30 May 2016 10:02 a.m. PST |
One disagreement and one comment on what was a great, well written piece. The disagreement is about turning your hobby into a business. I've done this and it has worked out great for me. I love doing my job. Work is not a chore. I get to work from home. I get to deal with things on my terms. I get to do what I love almost all the time. That being said it is a bit of a risk. If not managed properly it can become a source of stress rather than a stress reliever but I think that depends largely on the person. You have to love your hobby more than most other things in your life. I've always thought this about work though. You probably spend 40+ hours a week at work plus another 5-10 commuting in most situations. That could be 50-60 hours a week. In most cases, it will be about 9 hours a day. You will spend another 7 hours sleeping plus a half an hour doing things to get ready for sleep or work so maybe 16-17 hours a day doing that. That leaves about 7-8 hours with your spouse. So you better love your job more than your spouse because you're going to spend more time with it. The comment is something I think was missed in the discussion about the kickstarter and the retail sales.
The discounts on this kickstarter and others may have worked against getting this product into retail stores. Sure it got the game into a lot of people's hands but that is also part of the problem. A lot of people that were into the game got in in a big way. At 1000 people making $300,000 USD that is $300 USD a person on average. So the real keen people already have a lot of what they need. Seeing the retail price vs. what they got it for on the kickstarter, or could have gotten it for, means that some of them aren't going to buy more at the store. As most people in the business know your initial release is where you sell most of whatever it is. With this the initial release buyers have already bought it in most cases. A certain buzz might have been built up by social media and a very active demo program at conventions and local stores after the kickstarter was over to generate excitement. However, if I were a store owner, I would be very hesitant to stock a lot of it initially. As it turns out, given some of the pricing on eBaby, I would have been dead wrong. Still I don't think you can go into these things hoping that there will be a loyal following for a game that quickly goes up. Shorting stocks is risky enough. Shorting miniature companies seems foolish in the extreme. I see this with other games too. Dreadball is one. That seems like it could have had some retail legs. But what store would invest in it when all you need is one team and maybe a couple of blisters to play and most people that wanted a team got one in the kickstarter? I think there is a strong correlation between successful kickstarters, or at least ones that get funded and give away a lot of stuff cheap, and lack of interest from retailers. It is certainly something for manufacturers to think about if they want a presence for that product in the retail market, which for some products you may not. |
Cyrus the Great | 30 May 2016 12:12 p.m. PST |
It was apparent to me, an outsider, that postage was greatly underestimated and had been gobbled up in the first wave. When they released new items, that weren't part of the kickstarter, I really didn't want to throw good money after bad. My perception, as I hadn't received all the items promised in the kickstarter. Better communication, in my opinion, would have helped. There were some people who filled the void and it really wasn't helpful. I understood the risks going in, but I can understand those who felt cheated. |
Shadowcat20 | 30 May 2016 2:17 p.m. PST |
Thanks for the article, I do KS but did not get into that game. My local Hobby store DID have some on the shelf though. Been watching KS for a while and have noticed two things. 1. People think they are just pre ordering a product and expect it cheap, first, and with lots of extra goodies. 2. People are clueless on the risks and can not grasp the concept that the project could fail and is not a pre order with extras option only. Maybe some KS projects need to aim smaller, give out fewer goodies, and release extras for their game through retail outlets only. KS is a one shot deal, Game stores and long term planning will make or break a product. |
Extra Crispy | 30 May 2016 3:00 p.m. PST |
The kickstarter / retailer issue is a tough nut to crack. I bought a few boxes of AQMF thinking my Martian Empires customers might buy some here and there. There opinion was the vehicles were cool, but most of the foot troops not so much. But why should I buy in when the hardest core customers will KS and go direct? The whole "build a buzz to generate direct sales" totally undercuts your efforts with retailers who might feature the game in store, at cons etc. |
jefritrout | 30 May 2016 8:34 p.m. PST |
My whole issue with AOW is not about the kickstarter. Yes I invested in AQMF and though I did not receive everything, I was not "furious". I understand the whole kickstarter is not guaranteed. I have never wished bad things for Ernie or Barb ill. However the TAKING MONEY FOR PRODUCTS THEY DID NOT HAVE is what I have problems with. When you state that you have the product on hand, then take the money without having the product and lie about it, that is (according to PA law) – THEFT by Deception. Mr. Miles just kinda brushes over that aspect, but to me that is the key. |
Disco Joe | 31 May 2016 5:35 a.m. PST |
I was not interested in AQMF and not a fan of kickstarter's. If you make something I want I will purchase it but I am not going to back something that I may lose money on and end up with nothing. |
wyeayeman | 31 May 2016 9:27 a.m. PST |
Did anyone else expect an a new subtitled version of that famous scene in the film "Downfall", wailing at the vagaries of Kickstarter. I thought thats an enterprising development! |
Micman | 31 May 2016 10:04 a.m. PST |
Looking at how things went, there was very little to entice the retail outlets. As said above those in the KS had everything from the KS and no need to shop at stores. Then they would have sales almost every week that would under cut the retail outlets. I purchased way more directly from AD then I have bought from straight retail. In their quest to have cash flow they killed the retail market. They did have one tripod that was a retail only. Love the game and minis. Hopefully it will be back. |
nazrat | 31 May 2016 12:06 p.m. PST |
It will be! It's already being bought. |
Rogues1 | 31 May 2016 12:24 p.m. PST |
I went in a fair amount for the KS and was generally happy with everything I got and disappointed in not getting other stuff – in general I was satisfied. I appreciate the author's insights into the failure of not just the KS but the business. I know both Ernie and Barb from running the vendor areas for a few HMGS cons and I always saw them as a successful company. But, about a year before the eventual announcement of the bankruptcy I started to notice that there were changes in the business (changing booth configurations, reduced footprint, etc). At the time I thought it was more of a rightsizing not a cash flow action, I guess it was a bit of both. As a business AoW/AD/etc. will be missed (and so will many of their products), they were very popular at our shows. One thing that interested me was the comment that a few of the more vocal commenters on the KS drove them to continually add to the pledge level rewards. Is this a case of other KS's being very successful and driving for more rewards at closer levels (I'm thinking Reaper Bones, and some others)? I think the article did a good job of assessing the flawed economics that go into this race condition of driving increased funding with increased rewards for some of the KS's but I am curious if other KS's have similar problems. Do some of the issues described here indicate a larger problem for KS's and will this method of funding reduce a bit? Thanks for the article |
Spudeus | 31 May 2016 12:58 p.m. PST |
Certainly the author as an investor has some good insights, but his critique of backers seems misplaced. As he states, there was a deliberate black out. Month after month of no product, no updates, no communication. It became evident they didn't know how to manage a KS and were circling the wagons; that's why some backers became angry and lashed out. |
TheKing30 | 31 May 2016 2:43 p.m. PST |
It will be! It's already being bought. Even though I don't play this I'd love to see it come back – minus Ernie. This is one of the few systems that people really enjoy despite all the bumps in the road. |
KenofYork | 31 May 2016 4:50 p.m. PST |
Ernie was one of the few industry folks I actually met in person at a convention. Seemed very confident at the time and certainly seemed to know a lot about the industry. Perhaps the crowd funding was uncharted waters for him? |
nazrat | 01 Jun 2016 5:37 a.m. PST |
No, they had done another Kickstarter but it was much smaller. More they were overwhelmed by their success with All Quiet. It's a real shame. |
Ottoathome | 02 Jun 2016 4:08 a.m. PST |
I agree with Norman D. Landings. The whole kerfuffle about online buzz rings hollow to me. I seem to recall lots of it. The other problem is the author noted that "online buzz" seem to be 66% negative. I have noticed this in other field and suspect the alleged efficacy of "online buz." I recall once asking a publisher of a newspaper who was extremely proud of his papers e-mail presence what he actually MADE on the venture, at which he became very silent and evasive. Of cours I already knew that his paper lost abut 80,000 a year on it. I've never geen part of one and to this day can't get over a feeling there's a con hiding behind the wainscoating. No matter how good it sounds the enthusiasm always signals to me a lack of familiarity with basic business procedures which the world will impose regardless. I always find there is a gross under-estimation of cost of goods and almost a complete lack of recognition of cost of sales (which is not the same as cost of goods) and the capitalization required. It would seem to me far better to go the old fashioned rout and ask people to invest and become shareholders. I'd rather risk $5,000 USD to capitalize a new miniature business or a new line than $50 USD for a few oddball figures. |
nazrat | 02 Jun 2016 6:42 a.m. PST |
"No matter how good it sounds the enthusiasm always signals to me a lack of familiarity with basic business procedures which the world will impose regardless. I always find there is a gross under-estimation of cost of goods and almost a complete lack of recognition of cost of sales (which is not the same as cost of goods) and the capitalization required." Considering how many completely successful miniature related Kickstarters there have been you apparently haven't looked very closely. But go ahead and keep thinking they're all scams. More for us! |
Fergal | 02 Jun 2016 9:26 a.m. PST |
I've never geen part of one and to this day can't get over a feeling there's a con hiding behind the wainscoating. No matter how good it sounds the enthusiasm always signals to me a lack of familiarity with basic business procedures which the world will impose regardless. I always find there is a gross under-estimation of cost of goods and almost a complete lack of recognition of cost of sales (which is not the same as cost of goods) and the capitalization required. Seems a shame to look at it that way. I've got a pretty good understanding of all the costs involved, I'm sure there are plenty of folks who do as well. Also, plenty of folks who don't. Are you completely sure you "always find there is a gross under-estimation of cost of goods and almost a complete lack of recognition of cost of sales (which is not the same as cost of goods) and the capitalization required."? It would seem to me far better to go the old fashioned rout and ask people to invest and become shareholders. I'd rather risk $5,000 USD USD to capitalize a new miniature business or a new line than $50 USD USD for a few oddball figures. KS is about creators owning the creations and being given a way to fund their creation rather than 'the old fashioned rout' of asking a guy with enough money to fund you for a portion of the profits. 'Hey, because you've already got money, I can make you more money from my creativity and hard work' is not always necessary because of venues like KS. It's not for everyone… |
Bosco05 | 02 Jun 2016 12:41 p.m. PST |
The concept around "online buzz" as cited above is less social media chatter (Facebook likes, blog posts, etc) and more about a concerted effort to drive direct online sales. Direct sales have significantly higher margins to the manufacturer than selling through retailers (who need to take a cut themselves). In such a narrow market like miniature gaming that incremental margin is the difference between financial viability and financial failure. The skills required to drive that type of consumer behavior are no longer a "nice to haves" and they have results that can be measured in $ and cents. Otto – add a significant digit or two to the amount your willing to invest and then you might make make an impact. At 5K your better off buying lottery tickets. |