| Tango01 | 27 Apr 2016 9:35 p.m. PST |
"The flow of new Islamic State recruits into Iraqi and Syria has slowed dramatically, reflecting a "fracturing in their morale," a top U.S. general in Baghdad said Tuesday. The number of new recruits coming into the self-proclaimed caliphate has dropped from up to 2,000 per month to a new estimate of about 200 per month, said Air Force Maj. Gen. Peter Gersten, the deputy commander for operations for Operation Inherent Resolve, as the U.S. military mission in Iraq and Syria is known. "When I first got here [one year ago], we were seeing somewhere between 1,500 and 2,000 foreign fighters entering the fight. Now that we've been fighting this enemy for a year, our estimates are down to around 200," Gersten told reporters at the Pentagon…"
Full article here
link Good news! Amicalement
Armand |
| Cyrus the Great | 27 Apr 2016 9:44 p.m. PST |
Or they might be going to other places like Libya or Afghanistan. |
| cwlinsj | 27 Apr 2016 10:21 p.m. PST |
Yes, they've cut off the cash flow, but the real reason why there is less inflow of ISIS recruits is because the borders have finally been closed to them. Morale can't "fracture" until after an ISIS fighter makes it into their territory and discovers how horrible life is within the caliphate. Reduction of pay doesn't affect those outside of their territory. I think the military brass wants to take a bit too much credit. |
| Mako11 | 27 Apr 2016 11:17 p.m. PST |
As well as the EU, Philippines, etc., etc.. Easier to conduct attacks in your home country, instead of traveling to Syria or Iraq first, and then going back. Why splurge on airfare, when you can just conduct a "staycation"? |
| coopman | 28 Apr 2016 4:36 a.m. PST |
Plus they're all sneaking into the US now, bypassing Iraq & Syria altogether. |
| Mako11 | 28 Apr 2016 9:19 a.m. PST |
Shhhhh, we're not supposed to know, or talk about that. |
| cwlinsj | 28 Apr 2016 9:22 a.m. PST |
Nah, I'm sure we're vetting everyone, making sure their brand new Syrian passports are legit. |
| Tango01 | 28 Apr 2016 10:14 a.m. PST |
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| 15mm and 28mm Fanatik | 28 Apr 2016 11:01 a.m. PST |
I'm not as worried about the ones coming in from the outside since they're registered and easier to watch and track. It's the ones who were born here or immigrated here long ago and not on our radar that could pose a problem. ISIS is telling those who want to join to stay home instead and plan "lone wolf" type attacks since operating as larger cells would invite detection and pre-emption. But yeah, the halcyon days of ISIS and their much vaunted caliphate are over. |
| SouthernPhantom | 28 Apr 2016 12:28 p.m. PST |
Shhhhh, we're not supposed to know, or talk about that. Nor were we supposed to know about the attempted SVBIED attack on Fort Riley, but that doesn't mean it didn't happen. |
| Redroom | 28 Apr 2016 4:09 p.m. PST |
The number was retracted today, estimates are around 500+ per month. |
| Mako11 | 28 Apr 2016 5:05 p.m. PST |
The ones that will really be scary (in addition to those already living here) are those that have already illegally entered the EU, and who now can apply to travel to the USA for "vacation", since they don't need visas to visit. I'll bet a lot of people in D.C. are losing sleep over that at night. You're terribly wrong on the last statement, 28mm. They're just changing locations and tactics, and even with US aid and military advisors, the Iraqis can't beat them in their home country. |
| cwlinsj | 29 Apr 2016 9:18 a.m. PST |
Here's an example of the really scary stuff. In Germany, out of 1.1 million asylum seekers entering last year, 130,000 have disappeared. Germany doesn't know where they went. Vanished. Now most of them are likely economic refugees and some are probably criminals who don't want to be found, but what if just 1/10 of 1% are terrorists? – That would be 130 terrorists now in the EU. link |
| Mithmee | 29 Apr 2016 6:16 p.m. PST |
They are setting up shop in Europe. |
 Legion 4  | 02 May 2016 12:36 p.m. PST |
Yes, they've cut off the cash flow, but the real reason why there is less inflow of ISIS recruits is because the borders have finally been closed to them.Morale can't "fracture" until after an ISIS fighter makes it into their territory and discovers how horrible life is within the caliphate. Reduction of pay doesn't affect those outside of their territory.
Very true … But "give the devil his due" … I think the military brass wants to take a bit too much credit. The airstrikes have destroyed at least two Daesh "banks", many of their petroleum trucks and facilities, etc., … Plus a large number of their leadership, jihadis, equipment, etc. … Regardless of what some believe, besides all the non-combat measures like cw mentioned. Attrition of Enemy assets, is still part of the "cure". And again, IMO, the paradigm that some believe that by killing jihadis and causing CD "magically creates" more jihadis at this point is more myth than anything else. As was said on another threat, Islamists, like Daesh, AQ, etc. are not the Viet Minh or VC. This is a different type of insurgent/asymmetrical warfare … |
| Bangorstu | 03 May 2016 2:44 a.m. PST |
the paradigm that some believe that by killing jihadis and causing CD "magically creates" more jihadis at this point is more myth than anything else I don't think anyone is saying this. Some of us have been saying that killing civilians causes a recruitment surge, and there is plenty of evidence for this, not least from interviews with prisoners. |
| Legion 4 | 03 May 2016 7:37 a.m. PST |
Some of us have been saying that killing civilians causes a recruitment surge, and there is plenty of evidence for this, not least from interviews with prisoners.
I think again … that phase had passed … At one time that may have been more true than today. Evidence by the "trickle" of "shiny new jihadis" … But as always you and other are entitled to an opinion. As we frequently see is usually 180 degrees opposite of mine and others. But you can believe you are correct as will I and others. In Germany, out of 1.1 million asylum seekers entering last year, 130,000 have disappeared. Germany doesn't know where they went. Vanished. Does anyone think they are all jihadis ? No, of course not. But many, many, many, more have fled from the Jihad … than joined. And it appears this will continue. If all the jihadis are killed, the threat removed many won't have to flee … yes ? Of course many are fleeing not just from jihadis but corrupted draconian governments that no more provide any effective leadership, etc., than the jihadis might. Maybe less ? But again it is estimated there are many, many, many, many more fleeing the jihad than joining … I'll take the views of former and current US Intel and Military assets than you … if you don't mind. I know I don't … |
| cwlinsj | 03 May 2016 11:37 a.m. PST |
I would argue that the ones fleeing war in Syria, A-Stan and Iraq would readily sign-in at the Refugee Support Centers in the EU and not choose to disappear themselves, as this is the only means that they will be provided housing, healthcare, (some) education , and financial assistance. It is counter-productive to not take part in the largess of Germany if you have been admitted as a refugee. The ones who have disappeared are the ones who are aware that they face deportation for a variety of reasons. Criminals, not from a conflict zone, economic refugees, even soldiers who have fought for Assad, returning IS fighters, etc. |
| Legion 4 | 03 May 2016 2:25 p.m. PST |
Agreed … with all the refugees, among the actual "refugees", there are most likely a small(?) "rogue's gallery" of "undesirables". Besides the few Daesh returning for "jihad" in Europe … |
checks out some 10/15mm railroad tracks for wargaming.
