Editor in Chief Bill | 20 Apr 2016 11:17 a.m. PST |
On a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 is no impact and 10 is apocalyptic, what impact do you think 3D printing will have on our hobby by the year 2026? |
darthfozzywig | 20 Apr 2016 11:27 a.m. PST |
9? Our little niche industry will go through a phase similar to the recording and film industries, in a futile battle with consumers and sellers of 3D models. Artists ("digital sculptors") will be selling their models directly to consumers. Some might remain "in house" to support large product lines, but it will mostly be contract work. So, kinda like now, but more so. |
Black Scorpion | 20 Apr 2016 11:28 a.m. PST |
Not sure it'll be that big a change overall. It may change the ways thing are a done. At the moment it's a useful option in the sculpting/mastering stage. If it gets to the speed and quality and price that it can do production better than the current methods it could be used for that. But it'll just be a different way of doing the same thing. I don't see the 'print your own models' becoming a 'thing'. |
Goonfighter | 20 Apr 2016 11:29 a.m. PST |
Please try to be ambitious and aim for 3D joined up writing like the rest of the class. |
DisasterWargamer | 20 Apr 2016 11:31 a.m. PST |
Signed up for a class this summer |
Black Scorpion | 20 Apr 2016 11:32 a.m. PST |
What we have at the moment is a very worrying trend of companies proudly showing off 3d digital renders that have no scale… but less keen to show the 3d printed masters or production you actually receive. |
GildasFacit | 20 Apr 2016 11:46 a.m. PST |
1 or 2 at most. Everyone seems to think this technology is already mature enough to do this but it is nowhere near able to compete with a physical sculptor in even 28mm, never mind smaller scales. It will be many years yet before the best available now will be affordable compared to casting. |
Old Contemptibles | 20 Apr 2016 11:46 a.m. PST |
9. I have seen these printers up close and they are getting smaller and less expensive, but are no less effective. As soon as can afford one, I will probably get one. They are amazing. I was at the Smithsonian Exhibit Central, that is where they design and build the exhibits for all the Smithsonian Museums. They were making detailed copies of fossils. All the fine bone structure were replicated. They had two big 3D copy machines they originally bought several years ago. They had a newer, smaller one that can do the same thing and the cost is half as much. These things have the potential to really impact our hobby in ways we haven't thought of yet. |
Mako11 | 20 Apr 2016 11:49 a.m. PST |
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Bashytubits | 20 Apr 2016 11:52 a.m. PST |
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Who asked this joker | 20 Apr 2016 11:53 a.m. PST |
People will be printing their own armies. You can already print respectable 28mm figures. Won't be long before the quality is down to 15 or even 10mm. 9 sounds about right. |
Timmo uk | 20 Apr 2016 12:04 p.m. PST |
I've already seen images of figures produced from scanning real people and printing with a high quality printer and the results are fabulous if you like true proportions. The cost of this is actually quite favourable for creating masters for new figures if you need to buy in sculpting, that is assuming you have a group of re-enactors wiling to be scanned. I can recall all sorts of 'ah they'll never do that comments,' when we would dare dream of 28mm hard-plastic historical miniatures that the nay-sayers claimed would only ever remain a pipe-dream. Well they were wrong, very wrong. I think we will definitely see an impact on our hobby – the scanning technology already has widespread use in the model railway hobby. I think we tend to lag behind them in applying technology but only because of the money in each hobby is dramatically different. It'll come and things will change but there will still be the classic ranges of figures we are now buying in the future. Companies may change hands in time and new ranges will come along and I'm sure we'll enjoy seeing what gets made. |
FingerandToeGlenn | 20 Apr 2016 12:51 p.m. PST |
To me it seems like there are three factors in the printing itself that need to improve dramatically: speed, cost, and quality. If something like Moore's law comes into play those could quickly go by the wayside. That leaves ease of use. To be successfull, it has to be as simple as download, hit print, go get some coffee. So…right now a 1, but in five years probably an 8. |
War Panda | 20 Apr 2016 12:59 p.m. PST |
I totally agree with Who asked this Joker…I envisage a massive massive influence in the next 10 years especially towards the latter half of that decade I've two brothers in-law with no interest in the hobby talking enthusiastically about what models and building they could make using these…I didn't even bring up the topic |
Carpet General | 20 Apr 2016 2:10 p.m. PST |
I reckon about a 5, I don't doubt the quality but I don't expect it to ever be a very quick process. We'll still have to buy licensed IP legitimately or sculpt our own. Colour printers have never quite matched the quality of printed manuals and I'm always reluctant to pay for PDF when I can buy an actual book. I expect this to be a very similar situation. This is based on my personal buying habits obviously. |
Extra Crispy | 20 Apr 2016 2:31 p.m. PST |
Impact on who? Let's assume in 10 years I have a 3D printer and am able to buy CAD files for what I want. That in itself is a huge assumption. But some plucky sculptor out there will do all teh SYW, Napoleoncis, Ancients, etc. etc. etc. as downloadbale CAd files. So I will buy "ink" and files. I will print instead of buy through the mail. The miniature makers will go out of business as will the retailers, game stores, distributors, etc. But the hobby will chug merrily along. |
GeoffQRF | 20 Apr 2016 3:11 p.m. PST |
About a 4. I was looking at a machine yesterday for about £1,500.00 GBP It's very good, but still really noticeable print lines… And you have to consider just how many things you can buy for £1,500.00 GBP just to break even, and all the hassle of printing and cleaning… It's the Golden dream – just push a button and out oops a figure. I heard that in the print/design industry over 20 years ago and it still hasn't happened, although there have been other developments at the commercial end, such as CTP meaning we no longer have reproduce departments doing film work. In 10 years, you will probably see more mastering being done, but only if the real cost (taking into account the design and print size) drops by about half, as the problem is that it's relatively easy/cheap to make masters (certainly 20mm or below) by hand. |
Editor in Chief Bill | 20 Apr 2016 3:29 p.m. PST |
…buy CAD files for what I want… Note that a LOT of files are currently available for free, both from manufacturers and sharing websites. Of course, quality varies, and the models are not necessarily designed for wargaming sizes. |
evilgong | 20 Apr 2016 3:53 p.m. PST |
10 years is a long time. My guess is an impact of 6 to 9 on our hobby. The lower number is influenced by the fact that the method of producing figs has no impact on what we do once the figs get on the table. The higher number reflects that 3D printing could mean almost any fig imaginable (and terrain or equipment items) can be printed in any desired quantity in the privacy of your games room. A real game changer would be if /when the figs can be printed in colour that looks as good as a pro-painted fig. David F Brown |
14th NJ Vol | 20 Apr 2016 4:06 p.m. PST |
Well said David F. Brown. Complete figures painted ready to go made at home and I think the hobby would appeal to the younger crowd, maybe keeping it viable a lot longer. |
evilgong | 20 Apr 2016 4:15 p.m. PST |
Ok, now I've read Bill's 'industrial revolution' link on the related topic. A change of about 16 on the 1-to-10 scale would be if the full-colour 3d printed figs were micro-robots capable of walking on the wargames table and able to adopt shooting or fighting actions near the enemy. The lot would be programmed into the rules of your choice (and activated to move by voice command) and the program would compute conflict where some of the robots would die or be wounded as the others ran away. I'm not 100% sure I'd want to play such a game, there is something I like about having my hands on the figs. David F Brown |
basileus66 | 20 Apr 2016 10:28 p.m. PST |
Hold to your metals, because in a few years they will become collector's pieces and will reach collector's prices! Perhaps they will have an use besides staying storaged, unpainted and unloved in my cabinets! |
IUsedToBeSomeone | 21 Apr 2016 1:56 a.m. PST |
Basileus66 Why collector's pieces – I'll still be here producing them in metal…. Mike |
basileus66 | 21 Apr 2016 2:36 a.m. PST |
Ah, Mike! You are a romantic! |
GildasFacit | 21 Apr 2016 2:46 a.m. PST |
Look back about 5 years ago and see what the pundits were predicting would be happening now – and see how wrong they were. |
Mr Elmo | 21 Apr 2016 4:25 a.m. PST |
To have impact we need to get color 3D printing to about $3 USD per figure.
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Badgers | 21 Apr 2016 5:03 a.m. PST |
7 in ten years, 10 in twenty years. |
Cailleach | 21 Apr 2016 5:59 a.m. PST |
Of course, quality varies, and the models are not necessarily designed for wargaming sizes. The point is that you can make them any size you want, we already have companies looking at and producing ranges in 5mm, 15mm and 25mm (insert scale creep of choice). Once the design is complete scale up or down as needed. The same goes with any other manipulation you might wish to make to the design. The train is already pulling out of the station on this mini companies are well advanced in their plans utilizing CAD and 3D printing, there are plenty of digital sculptors actively working in the miniatures field. |
Shagnasty | 21 Apr 2016 9:41 a.m. PST |
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GeoffQRF | 21 Apr 2016 2:30 p.m. PST |
Once the design is complete scale up or down as needed That only really works in a narrow bracket, ie 15 to 20mm. You generally can't use the same file for, say, 1/300 and 1/56 |
Howler | 22 Apr 2016 9:34 p.m. PST |
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Dasher | 02 May 2016 1:40 p.m. PST |
Unless stable holography appears in the interim, 3D color printing will be the biggest impact on the hobby. |