"Ukraine's Military Is Building Up To Defeat The..." Topic

… Russian Rebels In The East.

"Tensions between Ukraine and Russia show no signs of abating, and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko was unsparing when he recently criticized Russia for destabilizing his country.

Speaking on March 25 at a government meeting marking the creation of the Ukrainian Security Service, or SBU, Poroshenko said that of the more than 200 terrorist attacks prevented by Ukraine in 2015, most were prepared in Russia. The president said such attacks were meant to to destabilize the political situation in the country and were planned for Kiev, Odessa, Nikolaev, Kherson, Zaporizhzhya, Kharkiv, and Lviv -- the nation's major cities and regions…"
Full article here
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Difficult task… waging war against your own citizens only guarantees more bitterness and division…

Amicalement
Armand

Ukraine used to be one of the Soviet Union's main tech centers for military manufacturing of armor, ships and aircraft, but that was a long time ago.

Unless they get help and modern weapons from the West, they haven't got a chance.

They don't need to be good, just better than the rebels.

Who, without Russian regular support, would appear to be toast.

Apparently, they're still getting that support.

Almost 100,000 troops if Poroshenko's numbers are to be believed.

I doubt that many, but the Russians have got to be there in significant numbers, plus their paramilitary and mercenary forces.

But it's their state of the art modern weaponry that have given the rebels the advantage and make the Ukrainians unable to counter. These include the latest tanks/IFVs, AA systems, plus tube and rocket artillery along with radars and counter battery radars. It is the artillery that is winnning the conflict, and shelling is still being reported on a daily basis.

According to Fontanka recently, Russia has used a private contractor, Wagner, in both Ukraine and Syria:

"President Vladimir Putin has sent Russian mercenaries to fight in Syria and Ukraine, decorating them for their service and concealing their casualties, according to a new report.

An investigation published by Fontanka, an independent Russian newspaper, found that the Kremlin had hired members of a private military company called Wagner to go to Syria and Ukraine. The use of contractors gives Mr Putin a deniable way of sending trained personnel to both countries.

Wagner is believed to have a membership of around 1,000 mercenaries, but officially the group does not exist since Russian law forbids private military companies. But Wagner is registered in Argentina and has a training camp in the Russian village of Molkino – the same village that hosts a training site of the 10th special forces brigade of the GRU military intelligence.

I think it's more than "Tension" -when you've been invaded?

There are Russians and Mercenaries – and Putin's self-installed warlords – but there are no "rebels" in Ukraine.

I'm pretty sure Putin has got a stake in Wagner, he definitely profits from war.

It has been regularly reported, by those living there within the militarised areas, that the soldiers fighting on the separatist side are not locals.

GeoffQRF – You state "It has been regularly reported, by those living there within the militarised areas, that the soldiers fighting on the separatist side are not locals." If you could supply sources for this that would be good. As you appear to be an expert on this subject perhaps you could explain what is the attitude of the population in the Donbas beyond the Kiev government's control: are they subjugated and hoping for liberation by Kiev's forces or do they support non-local fighters?

Only separatists and no Russian involvement? Yeah right!

Here's an example right from the very beginning that Russia instigated separatist unrest in Ukraine as a precursor to invasion.

Reported by the Moscow Times in case you want to claim it's Western propaganda.

"Ukrainian separatists" mistakenly storm Kharkiv's Theater House because they thought it was City Hall…

Now if these were really local protestors instead of Russian provocateurs, wouldn't they have known where their own City Hall is located?

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Actually, at the time that article was published The Moscow Times was owned by Finnish Company Sanoma, and the editor-in-chief was Andrew McChesney.

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It is generally known for being a Liberal, anti-Kremlin newspaper.

OK, others might say that the Moscow Times offers views not always inline with Putin-controlled state media.

But is the article accurate?

If you could supply sources for this that would be good

Bit tricky, as it's mainly friends and family (from Kharkiv, Poltava, etc). Also from my wife watching Ukrainian tv, and in particular she can hear the accent differences. She's well travelled across Ukraine and apparently the regional accents are really distinctive. She also speaks fluent Russian and Ukrainian, and was picking out separatists speaking with strong St Petersburg accents.

As you appear to be an expert on this subject perhaps you could explain what is the attitude of the population in the Donbas beyond the Kiev government's control: are they subjugated and hoping for liberation by Kiev's forces or do they support non-local fighters?

Neither. Most of them are pretty fed up and just want to get on with their own lives, but they don't really trust the government either (in part due to extensive media propaganda telling them that it's being run by Bandera Nazis). They also fear that siding with the EU will see their industry, mainly mining and heavy industry, be over-legislated by Europe or forced to shut down – It's old school mining, dangerous and dirty that wouldn't survive modern health and safety and many pits would likely be closed. Ironic, as they have in many cases anyway due to the war.

The separatists are not popular. There's a couple of videos of babushkas telling them to stop playing with their guns, get in their can and push off.

In some cases we have heard of instances of passive intimidation (guns on the street), and there were publicised examples last year of some strong kangaroo court and lynch style of justice on alleged evidence of crimes, which led to a public speech about how the women should be at home, in the kitchen cooking, not walking about in the streets , and that he would beat any woman found outside…

But Ukraine has bigger issues at the moment. They are keeping the war on the side, but with Yatsenuk being pressured into resigning (the former interim government members were always sacrificial and I'm surprised they have lasted so long) and the IMF deal in danger due to a failure to get corruption under control (an almost impossible task given that it is so ingrained almost at an instinctive level, if could take a generation (or a very very strong government which would almost certainly not survive as it would be so unpopular) to extract, bug unless they are seen to make positive steps they could find the finances that are desperately needed for reform and change are withdrawn.

But is the article accurate?

The attack on the theatre house was genuine (from a friend in Kharkiv who wasn't far when it happened). It may have got reported in an anti-Kremlin paper, but then a pro-Kremlin paper was hardly likely to point out such an error. They were not locals and didn't have a clue which building was which. The theatre is a fairly grand governmental-looking building.

Kangaroo court and lynch style of justice…

If you want a source for that, it was videoed and can be found online. Two men were accused of rape. The evidence was flimsy as best, and judgement passed by a show of hands of the 340 people present. One was sentenced to execution by firing squad, the other sent to the front lines to "die with dignity". I've not seen anything to say whether he is still alive. The death sentence was abolished in Ukraine in 1997. Russia does still have it codified, but under a moratorium since 1996, and even then only for 5 specific reasons, which I understand does not include rape.

However it was the statement that the prosecutor gave afterwards that was of specific interest. Again, this was videoed and can be found online, and gives an idea of the way the region is being governed:

If I see a single lady in a café or in a bar tomorrow, she will be arrested. Take care of your children. A woman should be a mother and the guardian of the home. What kind of mothers can they be after hanging around bars? How can they raise their children? What kind of example are they? Don't say that she's so-and-so or such-and-such. All pubs and nightclubs are crammed with females …Do you want to remain an honest person and stay faithful to your husband? Stay at home and work on embroidery. So, I repeat, patrols will be issued a special order – all girls found in bars will be arrested. All of them, I repeat. Stay at home, bake some pirozhki, celebrate March 8… It's high time you remembered that you're Russian. It's high time to remember spiritual values.

Both the DPR and LNR have publicly announced that they have carried out executions of prisoners, both military – 31 soldiers allegedly executed after Debaltseve – and non military – reports of street executions for civil crimes, and also of prisoners serving life sentences when they took over a prison.

So I think your answer is that they worry if the government can provide anything better (not helped by the infighting within government, the shelling of civilian areas occupied by LNR/DPR units and a general feeling of animosity) but that the fighters are tolerated due to an intimidating presence (patrolling with guns, 'police' style raids and executions)

Geoff – Thank you for your considered responses to my question. I was surprised that you have a personal and contemporary connection to Ukraine. This is gives you more credibility than someone who is an 'expert' because he read some opinion or news piece or saw a 30 second newscast. We have this connection in common because my wife is from Ukraine and I have visited her family there several times, most recently the summer of 2013. Fortunately my wife's family is not in the fighting zone.

We have followed events in Ukraine quite closely since it all started in November of 2013. It is an extremely valuable resource to have literally at one's elbow a language expert to interpret materials as well as locate articles, commentaries, news, and videos from sources beyond the reach of the effectively monolingual.

So, with all of these resources available to me for these last two years, I have come to very different understandings about events in Ukraine from what appears to be your own. My wife, who is the daughter of native Ukrainians who endured the Nazi occupation, who was very hopeful during the early days of the Orange Revolution, is quit disgusted with today's Ukraine and has effectively consigned the current Kiev government to perdition. Her Ukrainian flag long ago disappeared into the trash.

I hope your family and friends in Ukraine are safe and well and continue to remain so. Our deepest wish is that the nightmare that is today's Ukraine ends sooner rather than later, but I fear worse is yet to come.

Galinas family are in Rivne, in the west. They were initially hopeful that the Orange Revolution would see a significant change for Ukraine, but the likes of Yushenko and Timoshenko turned out to be same thing, different colour. She was critical of them from the start, saying that their political origins showed that they would screw the country for personal gain for two-three years, trying to make as much as they could in the time they had available. Her assessment seemed to have been proven pretty much spot on.

Her mothers origins are the village of Visich, near Poltava. Visich is the family name and pre-revolution her family were wealthy land owners in the region. She did look at reclaiming the family land (which you can do) but it requires you to provide alternative accommodation for everyone currently living on it, and considerable taxation. The land is ok for farming, but would be a massive financial burden with no chance of recovery. .

She has no real time for the current government, because she doesn't see them as much different than those who have gone before. However she can see that they are attempting to take the right steps. The problem is that corruption is not just rife, it is an integral part of the way of life and business and any attempt at control will be unpopular and it could take a generation to really deal with it. We took a taxi from Rivne to Kyiv a few years back and were stopped for papers checks five times. Only one of those was official, the rest were a tenner in the driving licence. It was not complained about, it was just seen as the cost of driving to Kyiv.

There is no doubt that the outgoing president, Yanukovich, was doing exactly the same thing, amassing personal wealth from a government position. Ukraine saw his flirting with Europe as a positive move, that could help their economic growth in the same way that Poland had since 2004. Unfortunately he neglected to tell anyone that this was a ruse to get a better deal (probably mainly personally) from Russia, and that is what led to his downfall. The discover of his palaces ensured he was never coming back.

The interim government were only ever going to be sacrificial. To be effective they would need to make unpopular changes, which they have done to secure IMF funding. That meant come elections they always had avery good chance of not surviving into another term, but the hope was that any reforms they were able to make would outlive them and see gradual positive change.

Yatsenuk unfortunately is an accountant and not a politician. He should be kept well away from any public forum and his very undiplomatic accusations have kept the tensions between east and west high. His departure is no surprise, in fact I am surprised he has lasted so long. Poroshenko was probably the best of the options to lead. He has a sharp business head, and appeared to have limited political ambition (he's actually been in politics for years) although his desire to sell to Europe pretty much guaranteed the direction things would take. So far he has probably managed quite well in the face of very high adversity, but his popularity is waning because of the unpopular reforms that he has been forced to make for the long term benefit. I think he accepted the post knowing he wouldn't survive it politically, hence why he has sidelined rather than sold his businesses.

The constant fly in the ointment has been the situation in the east. It's not even the whole of the east, but actually a small area on the border. However it has been extremely expensive financially and in lives, fuelled by propaganda that the current government is a junta of Bandera loving nazis who want to kill all Moskalis and perpetuated by, at the very least, Russia permitting a porous border. Russia has acknowledged that its own service personnel, ostensibly while on leave, have been involved in the fighting and there appears to be increasing evidence of the use of a PMC, if not actual serving military advisers or personnel, being present. Incursions, at least those caught, have been passed off staff as soldiers getting lost. How irresponsible do you have to be to allow soldiers to get lost across the border into a neighbouring country during the war? And it wasn't just a one or 2 km incursion, it was a full day is march inside the country where signs are clearly shown in Ukrainian not Russian. How negligent do you have to be to allow soldiers who clearly have no idea how to use GPS compass maps or even asked for directions to exercise so close to the border a how negligent do you have to be to allow soldiers who clearly have no idea how to use GPS, compass, maps or even asked for directions to exercise so close to the border and was ownof a warzone?

I have been to Ukraine many times over the last 11 years,, my most recent visit being only last summer. I have been to the deepest West (actually the town of Sashko Bily, the alleged right sector Right Sektor Bandera leader himself – I didn't see a single Bandera or Nazi flag) and some 400 km to the east where I walked the battlefield of Poltava. We had friends from Kharkiv who came to stay with us when the tensions looked really bad and gave first-hand accounts of how separatists were brought in by coach from somewhere outside just to create tension and trouble. They told us that not only were these not locals, but we're not even Ukrainians.

I agree that the situation will probably have to get a lot worse before it can see any dramatic positive I agree that the situation will probably have to get a lot worse before it can see any dramatic positive change. Currently they are seeing food prices up, house prices up, all the while trying to fight to challenge instinctive corruption, a crippling economic situation and fund a war (at the moment fought to an attritional stand still). I'm not sure how long Ukraine can keep up with the constant attrition, or whether it will take some dramatic event to see real change. Unfortunately I can see the latter occuring, and it will not be pleasant.

Sorry just read that back. I typed it on my phone and it seems to have messed it up in places.