"Dogger Bank Incident; What if? Scenario ideas" Topic

I'm sure many of us have considered the Dogger Bank Incident leading to an Anglo-Russian war in 1904.

Reading up I considered another wargaming "What if"…

During the Dogger Bank incident one of the ships identified as a Japanese torpedo boat was a Swedish steamer. Here is my counter-factual changes:

The steamer belongs to Norddeutscher Lloyd and is fired on with casualties.

The Germans take this badly, mobilize and declare war. The British similarly react.

France, responds by declaring war on German….

Would this make an interesting campaign?

Is this credible in 1904?

How far would it go?

If we have a war what does Zinovy Petrovich do? Press on to Vladivostok or turn back to Kronstadt?

Thoughts would be welcomed gentlemen.

I do not think in 1905 Germany would have declared war, they were not ready to start a war at the drop of a hat! – far more likely an angry diplomatic embassy in St Petersburg, followed by a British offer to mediate the dispute…and have their say about fishing vessels getting shelled!

I'd buy that enough to fight a multi-battle campaign. In 1/3000 scale I have the Russian, British, and German fleets for this, and I can provide the Japanese if the campaign in the Far East has to resume. How soon can you come to California? :-)

Unless you're trying to move the start of the Great War to 1905, leave out the Germans. It's hard to see how Germany would go to war against Russia without help, and if France throws in, Germany is doomed. You need to mobilize the Triple Alliance, and then you have WWI.

A more manageable campaign is go only as far as a Franco-Russian alliance. It only has to last long enough to fight Trafalgar in 1905 under steam power.

With the Russian fleet fatally delayed in Europe, I imagine the war in the Far East would go pretty much the way it did historically. There isn't much need to re-imagine it.

- Ix

And if the proposed Anglo-German Naval treaty of 1902 had happened and the Entente Cordiale was never signed?

An alliance of Britain, Germany and Japan fighting against the Russians and French?

Interesting ideas. We know know that 1905 or 1909 would had been a better years for a German war on Russia for those German decision makers (a minority) that wanted a preventive war.

So if you postulate some political changes in Berlin you could get a German government willing to go to war with Russia in 1905. However, the Germans were primarily afraid of a British reaction. Also the Austrians were not willing to fight a war fr Germany, if that war was not started in the Balkans. Finally France in 1905 is not as gun-ho as France in 1914. There would be an unwillingness to back Russia in a war over this. By 1905 the idea in the Centrale (the French MFA) was the Balkan inception scenario.

So Austria,and France might not be willing to play ball.

Now on England you need to resolve the concundurm that the English themselves faced. For the British the main issues was the Russian threat to their Empire. There alliance with Japan was driven by that. The main reason that they stayed away from a German alliances was because Wilhelm was asking for much, and could deliver little. The British wanted allies that could protect India, Asia and Africa from the Franco-Russians. Japan could credibly be such an ally. But Germany simply could not. Sure it could fight Russian in Europe, but the British believed the Czar would gopple up the British Empire in Asia long before a decision in Europe.

After 1906 they felt in less of a need to fear Russia, and thus were happy with the Japanese alliance. Wilhelm's welpolitik was an issue in that era because the British simply did not need him. However, the quick rebuilding of Russian strength freaked them out. By 1910 they had pretty much decided that no one could protect their empire from Russia+France, and decided to "group" Russia via France. The results were catastrophic of course.

A German alliance in earnest needs either Germany building a big fleet but credibly committing to not threatening Britains global position (really hard), or building a fleet that is useful for Britain globally but not a threat (and good luck finding a good balance for that).

Of course a victory of Russia in the RJW might lead to such an alliance. Or might lead to grouping earlier than it happened.

Simply put Germany was simply not important enough as a global player, Russia and France smart enough not to push the envelope with Britain, and Germany foolish enough to embark on a really bad policy for getting Britain to "group" it instead. Which was the fleet. The whole point of the fleet was to make Germany as big a threat to the British Empire as Russia, so that Britain would choose to "group" Germany. But that is 1910-1914 dynamic. In 1905 Germany is simply not important enough for Britain.

So essentially France and Austria would probably not want to play ball, the UK would probably remain neutral, and thus you need a German government willing to risk a Franco-Russian War without Austria. Considering that the French and Russians were more able to give stuff to Italy, I would not bank on an Italian entry.

It could happen (you just need enough stupidity, as in most wars), and it could lead to an interesting scenario of Russia + France (?) vs. Germany. There is a good chance that a German declaration of war would lead Japan and Russia to cut a deal. Permitting the Russian fleet to be used in operations in the Batlic and North Sea.

Does anyone have an OOB for the Home Fleet at the time of the Dogger Bank incident? Wikipedia mentions "28 battleships" raising steam, but I don't know which ones, and I don't have any sources that discuss this incident in any detail.

For the decades before 1904, the Royal Navy's Mediterranean fleet vied for top honors with the Home Fleet for important postings, and many of the best and newest battleships were based out of Malta (or sometimes Gibraltar). However, one of the British motivations for the Entente Cordiale was to reduce force commitments to the Middle Sea, but I have no clue how far along those arrangements were in Oct 1904. It might be possible to synthesize a good idea of the force distribution from the text in Conway's and various editions of Jane's, but I've never gone that far.

The French fleet dispositions are also a bit of a mystery, and might remain so even for a Francophone researcher. However, a fun campaign game would probably rqeuire a lot of "what if" with the fleet dispositions anyway, so exact accuracy is less critical.

The Russian OOB we can look up down to the last vessel, because Tsushima is one of the most studied sea battles in history.

If Germany is in the game, their fleet dispositions are easy – Kiel, Hamburg, or both. The Kiel canal should let the Germans pick a deployment zone.

- Ix

Oscar Parks "British Battleships" gives the Home Fleet composition Ix. In storage for me until May/June.

Also look at the Avalance Games. They usually have historical and alternative historicla scenarios and OOBs in their games

I had an idea for a narrative with fun linked scenarios:

1. Dogger Bank Incident. The Russians continue south.
   Royal Navy cruisers ordered to stop Russians.
   Home Fleet ordered to raise steam for impending confrontation.
   
2. First day. Royal Navy cruisers intercept Rozhestvensky's fleet, attempt to stop them.
   Wargame scenario 1: The Ushant Incident
   A big bunch of British armored cruisers engages the Tsushima-bound fleet. Cruisers are outnumbered and outgunned, but opposing Russians are afraid to do so much damage that war is unavoidable. Morale-based results triggered by low casualties.
   Period thinking was that ACs could engage BBs, so this could be a fun test of that theory. Also, I love British armored cruisers, and I'm always looking for ways to play more games with them.
   
   The Russian fleet breaks off first, and retreats into Douarnenez Bay (the big bay south of Brest Roads). The French are insensed, but then outraged by the brazen British cruiser admiral who steams his squadron right into the outer roads of Brest and anchors, effectively blockading the Russians in a French bay. The French wish to save both alliances, so are reluctantly pushed into the role of mediators between equally insufferable Russians and British.
   
3. First week. The Royal Navy Home Fleet arrives and tension mounts.
   British diplomats insist the Russians accept armed escort to Plymouth for internment until the dispute is resolved.
   The French publicly stand on national prestige and re-moor the (hopelessly outnumbered) Brest fleet across the mouth of Douarnenez Bay to enforce separation between the "belligerents", but quietly suggest the Russians accede to this British demand. The Russians infuriatingly refuse to even consider it.
   
4. First month. Negotiations stall.
   France bars merchants from trading with the Russians so that resupply can be withheld as a bargaining chip; Breton smugglers trickle supplies into Russian fleet, undermining this leverage and further stalling negotiations.
   The French Mediterranean fleet arrives and joins the Brest fleet across the mouth of Dournenez Bay.
   
5. January 1905. A big storm drives the Home Fleet out to sea and scatters it (the outer roads aren't protected enough for a packed anchorage, the French won't allow British or Russian ships into the inner roads).
   The Russian fleet raises steam to leave before the Home Fleet returns; the French allow them to coal up for a long journey.
   
   Wargame Scenario 2: Trafalgar 1905
   Two options available.
   In either option, the pre-confrontation storm can be used as an excuse to reduce the numbers of the Home Fleet and give the allies a slight numbers advantage (which they will need in the face of British material and morale superiority).
   • Franco-Russians vs. British
     The French agree to escort the Russians as far as the mouth of the Mediterranean. The allied fleet leaves together, shadowed by British cruisers, and is intercepted by the reassembled Home Fleet off Trafalgar. The French may not engage until the Russians are fired upon, and must depart if the Russians fire first.
     This would be a HUGE battle, but it would be a fun way to get the French pre-dreadnought fleet onto the table.

   • Russians vs. British
     The French let the Russians leave Brittany (and nearly create a second storm with the collective sigh of relief). The Russian fleet is intercepted by the reassembled Home Fleet off Trafalgar.
     British outnumbered but better quality, similar dynamic to Tsushima.
   
   

Another potential source of battles is the British Mediterranean fleet vs. the Russian Black Sea fleet, but I'd have to study that one to figure out a good scenario. I don't know how the Russians get out of the Dardanelles, nor what they would do in the Mediterranean without friendly bases.

- Ix

@Yellow Admiral,

I really like the Franco-Russian vs. British scenario you outlined (section five, first bullet point) for "Trafalgar, 1905." I'm going to have to try that one.

-- Byron

I'd love to hear (and see!) more about it if you pull it together. What scale? What rules? How does it go? Pictures, too. :-)

- Ix