"The Myth Of The 70,000 Moderate Syrian Rebels" Topic

"Not since Hitler ordered General Walther Wenck to send his non-existent 12th Army to rescue him from the Red Army in Berlin has a European leader believed in military fantasies as PR Dave Cameron did last week. Telling the House of Commons about the 70,000 "moderate" fighters deployed in Syria was not just lying in the sense that Tony Blair lied – because Blair persuaded himself to believe in his own dishonesty – but something approaching burlesque. It was whimsy – ridiculous, comic, grotesque, ludicrous. It came close to a unique form of tragic pantomime.

At one point last week, one of Cameron's satraps was even referring to this phantom army as "ground troops". I doubt if there are 700 active "moderate" foot soldiers in Syria – and I am being very generous, for the figure may be nearer 70 – let alone 70,000. And the Syrian Kurds are not going to conquer Isis for us; they're too busy trying to survive the assaults of our Turkish allies. Besides, aren't the "moderates" supposed to be the folk who don't carry weapons at all? Who's ever heard before of a "moderate" with a Kalashnikov?…"
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Amicalement
Armand

The bug caused my Pardulon buggies post to land in this topic in error. 😜

From what I have heard and read, many of those "moderates" are Al Qaeda fighters.

Whether it includes al-Nusra isn't clear. What is clear is that there are lots of people in Syria fighting both Assad and ISIS – the 20K Turkmen the Russians are bombing for a start.

What they are not is a cohesive force…

The Turks, as I understand it, are Muslim Brotherhood, e.g. the same guys Egypt deposed as being too radical, and that were previously jailed due to that.

That the current Egyptian Government syas a thing doesn't necessarily make it true…

A quick Google shows they co-operate with just about anyone who is fighting Assad or Daesh.

Interestingly their political wing is against the break-up of Syria, they just want their ethnic rights respected.

At first glance they don't seem to bad a bunch, in as much as their demands seems entirely reasonable.

Camerons falsehood will come back to haunt him , probably written by the same civil servant that said we were all going to be killed by Saddams WMD's . But , maybe not the same civil servant that come up with acronym for ''The War Against Terror'' .

The underlying problem is that in a highly sectarian conflict of extremes, there's really no place for "moderates" or middle ground.

Assad sees Daesh as necessary for his own political survival because his Alawites are a minority in Syria and a "divide and conquer" strategy and sectarian civil war are the only way for him to hold tenuously to power.

Even if there were 70,000, which would out number Daesh 2 or 3 to 1. They would/are factionalized, with many different agendas, etc. … And many of the forces in the region have their own priorities.

As the Cameron and others have said. And we all know. Assad is only concerned about defeating his Opposition Forces. As are his Russian ally. Along with Hezbollah and the Persians.

The Turks don't like Assad. And their priority is to destroy the Kurds. And protect their Turkmen brethren from Assad and the Russians.

The Kurds are the only ones that have proven effective in battles against Daesh. When not getting bombed by the Turks.

Many of the other Arab nations claim to be busy fighting in Yemen to support the Saudis, etc. … But when to look at their numbers. They are very small, and in some cases, IMO
they should be considered "Token".

The Iraqis, whether the military or militias just seem to be ineffective in almost all cases. When they go into combat with Daesh.

So it begs the question … Who is really seriously fighting Daesh ? Besides the Kurds and it's Western Supporters. Like the US and many in NATO.

Nobody?… or the Russians?…(smile)

Amicalement
Armadn

Even if the 70K are fictionalised, if we can persuade each faction to do a little bit, that would be something.

The big fight will be for Raqqa, but liberating some of the smaller towns will help, even if it only helps the poor sods living there.

if we can persuade each faction to do a little bit, that would be something.

It would be something, but still a long shot at this point ! Sadly …

if we can persuade each faction to do a little bit, that would be something.

It would be something, but still a long shot at this point ! Sadly …

What ?!?!? A triple post ?!?!? Are the TMP gremlins working overtime !?!?!? Or … I could just blame the albatross they call Windows 10 !!!!

"Who is really seriously fighting Daesh ?".

No one is the true answer.

There've been multiple reasons given, but I think the true one is a total lack of will, and not the various other excuses given:

1. they're hard to find;
2. we can't bomb the oil tankers due to possible civilian casualties;
3. we can't bomb the oil tankers due to the adverse economic impact it will have in the region;
4. we can't bomb the oil tankers due to the adverse impact it will have on the population, due to lack of fuel;
5. we can't bomb ISIS due to possible collateral damage and civilian casualties;
6. we can't bomb ISIS since Turkey is dependent on that cut-rate oil, and would get mad at us if that was cut off;
7. we can't bomb the oil fields since that would cause an environmental disaster; etc., etc..

So, the initiative and economic windfall are handed to ISIS, since we "can't", or more accurately "won't" do what is needed to win.

I think quite a few groups would fight Daesh if Assad would leave them alone to do so.

They're not popular, but you have to deal with your most pressing concerns first and for some reason Assad has been leaving Daesh well alone.

The oil refineries and tankers have been bombed btw.

We here often quote "truth is the first casualty of war" and that's so but the myth of the 70,000 may have unintended consequences.

We know of course courtesy of the VP and the State Department and indeed president Putin that they don't exist.

Now it seems the UK prime minister is going to have to explain to the UK parliament why he believes there are 70,000 Moderate Fighters ready to sweep ISIS aside. It is a UK convention that one may not lie to parliament and to do so ends a political career.

It will be illuminating to see what the British premier comes up with.

British intelligence states they do exist.

So long as they've told Cameron that, he's not lying when he repeats the statement in Parliament.

Lets see what he says. So far we only know he says they said and surely no one wants Chilcott 2.

Mind you the Victor of Libya may suprise us all.

IMO, it could be 70,000 or 7000 … it's a question about effectiveness … Which we see little of. Unless you mention the Kurds.

The problem the FSA had was having no decent kit, and they got steamrollered by people who did.

Therefore a lot of the fighters defected to the groups with more than a rusty AK-47 to wave at Assads' tanks.

If we start giving them decent weapons and providing air support – hence increasing their battlefield effectiveness and survivability, some good may come of them.

I'm not hopeful, but it's worth a try.

Possibly simply providing CASEVAC and decent medical facilities would be a start.

There was and is no FSA-it is and always was a media confection and sometimes jihadis said they were part of the FSA. When kit was sent to the FSA it was appropriated by the people who actually existed. Those people were and are Jihadis.

I see the British Foriegn Affais Select Committee has refused to buy into the mythical 70,000 moderate fighters too. Not suprising rebranding jihadi cannibals is hard to swallow.

Here's a quote from The Guardian that's food for thought.

"Lt Gen Gordon Messenger, the deputy chief of the defence staff, told the defence select committee that national security concerns meant he could not say whether any of the 70,000 fighters were members of the Islamic Front and Ahrar al-Sham."

The committee who know these guys are AQ were not impressed but at least they did not shoot the messenger. So that's something I guess.

The FSA of 2011 and 2012 was comprised of officers in the Syrian army whose loyalties are questionable to begin with because they're drawn from the sunni majority in Syria and Assad only trusted Alawites.

It's only a matter of time they joined the various extreme sunni factions fighting Assad's shrinking regime.

Oh – the FSA did and does exist, but it's an umbrella organisation not a coherent force.

To be frank, even if some of them are Islamists, so long as their not Isalmists who want to attack us, then their an improvement on ISIS.

If they are, thinning the herd against ISIS is a good thing also.

Let us probe that Stu.

" the FSA did and does exist, but it's an umbrella organisation not a coherent force."

So we can agree its not an army as it doesn't have any command structures or soldiers in units that come together to form a coherent force.

As an umbrella organisation we should be able to identify its key figures and overall political structure and a list of afilliated organisations to the same. It gets a bit tricky there as no one seems to be able to do so.

No one will deny that kit sent to the FSA ended up with the jihadis. Had the FSA existed in any meaningful sense it would have kept that kit it couldn't because it didn't exist beyond being a label.

To be frank, even if some of them are Islamists, so long as their not Isalmists who want to attack us, then their an improvement on ISIS.

Seriously? That's exactly the thought process that got us into this Islamist/ISIS mess in the first place. "Oh we can use them, direct them to overthrow Assad, everything will work out fine. They won't turn against us or get out of control."

Al-Nusra got the kit because whilst we sent our proxies 'non-lethal' aid, the Emiratis sent proper weapons…

And hence people simply joined al-Nusra in order to get a gun that works.

So by worrying over-much about supplying the jihadis, we simply ensured the jihadis got everything.

I don't think anyone who takes the slightest notice of the Syria conflict gives Robert Fisk any credence at all these days. Playing the Hitler card 3 words in is impressive even by his standards however.
The 70,000 figure is consistent with research done by Charles Lister and doesn't include Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, Jaish al-Islam or any other Islamist faction. The point is entirely moot, as none of those will be willing or able to fight IS while Fisk's mate Assad is still there.

The point is entirely moot, as none of those will be willing or able to fight IS while Fisk's mate Assad is still there.

BINGO !

There is only so much the US/West/NATO can do … if the locals don't want to fight Daesh, no matter how much outside support the get. Let alone how the anti-Assad forces are doing …