"South China Sea & Regional Institutions" Topic

Do you believe that the crisis between China and other countries regarding maritime concerns will be resolved through regional institutions, such as the Association of South East Nations, ARF, or East Asia Summit?

No

No.

No.

No

Is the Dawghouse an institution?

No. The only way China will back off on their outrageous claims is because of US pressure militarily along with diplomatic pressure bringing together not only the smaller nations affected but regional powers like Japan and South Korea. India also has a hand to play because they fear Chinese expansion into the Indian Ocean. Since India joined the other nations in their quest to back China off the Chinese eased off their Pressure on India's northern frontier. If other world powers can be brought into the fold this thing may be brought to a compromise solution. Otherwise ships and planes will play chicken until things go south and there will be blood.

Only if these regional institutions are armed and prepared to stand toe-to-toe with China and the PLAN for years at a time.

Only if the world stand united in boycotting China and put the skids on her economic development so that she will not be overly ambitious because she thinks she's a "superpower."

So stop shopping at Walmart, people.

Actually, the more you shop at Walmart, the more economic leverage the US has…

Not in a positive way. China wants to divide and rule, picking off each country one at a time.

The only serious naval/global power in the world is the US.

Fortunately for the South China Sea parties freedom of navigation and security in the region is vital to US interests – hence we have USN involvement and the whole pivot to Asia thing. [which has lacked momentum but is happening slowly]

In the end this will be a trade war. Perhaps the best thing would be to borrow as much as possible from China and then default?

China is actually devouring itself from the inside, albeit slowly. These 'islands' and all the ADIZ issues are a sign of desperation, or maybe insanity.

This is more fallout from 911 and the aftermath. China thought it could leap ahead while the USA was preoccupied in the middle east.

The only risk is accidents. There have been casualties including killed already – there will be more before we're done.

Nope

As Skraper notes China has lots of internal challenges and part of their international strategy is, I think, an attempt to distract people from the problems within China

No.

I suspect the Chinese are playing the long game, and will eventually bribe, cajole, and threaten others in Asia to come around to their way of thinking, in order to drive a wedge between them and the USA.

It'll be interesting to see if China loses its grip on its people, before that can happen.

There are glimmers of hope, as we've seen in Hong Kong, and in Tiananmen Square.

Not likely a solution per se..but keep an eye on the Philippines case before the Int'l Court of Arbitration.

link

Not a solution but it is helpful. The more this gets into the news and on to the agenda of those with the power to do something – mainly the US – the better.

It has both local and global implications that are hard to overstate, but has been under reported.

The court will no doubt help the Phillipines, internationally, but I expect the Chinese to just ignore any rulings from there.