"How the West Can Stop Russia's Escalating War in Ukraine" Topic

"This month, Russia stepped up military pressure on Ukraine, concentrating about fifty thousand troops along its border with Ukraine, using its proxy militias to shell Ukrainian government positions in the Donbas, and threatening Kyiv with "a big war."

The current escalation indicates Russian discontent with Ukraine's refusal to make unilateral concessions such as allowing the creation of a demilitarized zone in Shyrokyne near the city of Mariupol without reliable guarantees that Russian-backed separatists won't take back this area after Ukrainian forces withdraw.

Parties to the Minsk contact group discussed this issue at an August 3-4 meeting but failed to agree. They also bickered over the idea of withdrawing heavy weapons of less than 100-mm caliber. In both cases, the main obstacle has been the lack of reliable guarantees that separatists would keep their part of the bargain…"
Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

Turning over a new leaf after learning my lesson.
I have no idea.

I have lots of ideas, but can't really discuss them here, and some might lead to further escalation, so, over to the Blue Fez, if you really want to know.

I saw a headline mentioning things may be ramping up again, soon.

I suspect a bit of scaremongering from the separatist propaganda machine to try and prompt the Ukrainian government/army into taking preemptive military action, thus justifying a preemptive response :-)

"A ceasefire is likely to collapse in east Ukraine and Russia could be drawn into a "big war" to cleanse the "sore on its borders", the former leader of the region's pro-Russian separatists said."

That was former separatist leader (and Russian citizen) Alexander Borodoi speaking… oh… nearly 3 months ago. It's like continually poking a bonfire in the hope it will flare up.

THere seems to be the usual occasional trade of artillery (mortars, 122mm and grad) but no evidence on any major escalation. As I mentioned elsewhere, its all bogged down and is a bit of a problem.

Ukraine cannot simply abandon the territory. 'Ukraine' would not stand for that and it would lose any respect in the leadership. However while it seems capable to holding ground, it lacks the equipment, manpower, training and political force to engage in an offensive front. However, it is costing a small fortune (if not a large one) to keep a conscript army fed and combat ready in the field, not to mention positively motivated.

The separatists continue to try and prod, hoping for some sort of collapse, or some sort of retaliation that they can use as an excuse to demand Russia comes to their aid. However they are fragmented within by groups vying for leadership and trying to carve out their own patch before anything stable settles into place.

Russia is unsure where to go. It can put as many troops as it likes on the border (after all Rostov is a well known training area), which adds a bit of 'be good or we might just have to come in' pressure, but Russia really cant afford to openly invade another sovereign nation (ignoring that they have de facto done so in Crimea) in the current economic, political and diplomatic atmosphere. Not only would they be metaphorically crucified in the global diplomacy market (not that they seem to be too concerned about that at the moment) but it would also bolster the whole internal movement that is already grumbling far louder than the Russian government would like.

The weather is starting to turn in Ukraine. It's currently +30ish (about 85F) but within the next 6-8 weeks you can expect that to start to drop rapidly. By about October-November it will already be too late. It is just possible that there is an intention for a quick pre-winter land grab, but i suspect this is a lot of propaganda bluster attached to media sensationalism.