"Can We Recreate the Battle of Midway’s “Luck”?" Topic

"This past June marked the 72nd anniversary of the Battle of Midway, recognized as the turning point in the Pacific during World War II. June 4th, 1942 is dramatized in books aptly titled Miracle at Midway, Incredible Victory, and No Right to Win. Because at 1020, happenstance brought together three U.S. Navy dive-bomber squadrons, launched at disparate times from different decks, unopposed over four Japanese aircraft-carriers. This simultaneous aggregation at the critical point is always desired but was unexpected. In the next five minutes, these fifty dive-bombers would cripple three carriers. Through the remains of that day, each side would lose a carrier and the balance of power in the Pacific was irrevocably shifted.

Can this "luck" be recreated in order to engender future opportunities? If this "luck" can be programmed as an Artificial Intelligence algorithm, then unmanned aviation will truly enter the robotic age. Military forces based on unmanned autonomous systems will profoundly change how we fight and equip for war and defense of the United States and its partners.[1] But technology alone will not suffice, it must be paired with yet unforeseen creative applications of that technology. For as Max Boot writes, "The way to gain a military advantage, therefore, is not necessarily to be the first to produce a new tool or weapon. Often it is to figure out better than anyone else how to utilize a widely available tool or weapon."[2]

Battle of Midway

As dawn approached on June 4th, the Japanese "Mobile Force," centered around four carriers, had sailed south-easterly along a line-of-bearing 200 miles from Midway. At 0430, this mobile strike force commanded by Nagumo, launched 108 aircraft at Midway in preparation for amphibious assault. He did not expect U.S. carrier action. The prevailing thought was the Americans were in respite and would require the capture of Midway to lure the U.S. carriers out for a climatic at-sea Mahanian engagement…"
Full article here
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Amicalement
Armand

I think it would be tough to recreate that level of surprise with aircraft. Not least because we don't field that many carriers anymore.

The bigger reason is better sensors. Every ship has radar, every warship has an air-search radar. Every warship also has access to satellite resources to keep track of ships over the horizon.

So the chances of getting a single aircraft over a task force undetected is a number virtually identical to zero.

ok… but still an interesting "what if" …. (smile)

Amicalement
Armand

Was it really luck or the Americans having the edge when they read the codes? They knew where, generally, to look for the Japanese, while the Japaneses were traveling blind against an enemy they were not expecting to be anywhere nearby. As far as getting 4 carriers, that was just the nature of Japanese carrier operations. You were going to find them all or none, it wasn't going to be anything else.

But Luck ah that is the trick.

In May of 1982 The Captain of the ARA Veinticinco de Mayo had achieved what every Naval commander wanted, a solution. Out witting and sailing the great British Navy he had place his force north of the British Fleet and idenified through signet the fact that the two carriers where there. 12 A-4 pioleted by fully train and daring men armed with 2000lb carrier killing bombs and fuel for the long attack stood ready. He gave the order to trun into the wind to be able to launch his strike.

Luck. . .

Fortune . . .

The great ship turned and the wind died. Nothing with out it the heavy loaded planes would lanch into the sea. So she turned back to her anti sub course to wait a small wind.

Each time nothing. No wind, no launch, no war winning attack.

Luck

The only time that has happen in the Captain's twenty year carrer. Nothing

Luck

Love you Tango

I asked a member of a campain game I ran once if I should put in a factor like this.

He said not a Problem. We (the players) will just get together and beat you to death with baseball bats.

Well I stated no luch factor in the campain.

Luck is the residue of design. – Branch Rickey

Yes, the USN was lucky at Midway. But through good preparation and training, they were able to exploit the opportunity that luck presented them to the fullest extent. In lesser hands, the opportunity may have gone unnoticed or unexploited.

We tend to read the story of Midway and focus on how lucky the USN was.

We completely lose sight of how unlucky the USN was at the same time.

How lucky that 3 dive-bomber squadrons, each moving independently, managed to arrive over the Japanese carriers at just the right moment. Yep. Lucky.

What about all the other attacks on the Japanese fleet?

The first strike from Midway island consisted of brand new TBF Avengers (from Hornet's squadron) and Army B-26s with torpedos, two dozen SB2U Vindicator and SBD Dauntless dive bombers, and more than a dozen B-17s. That's a lot of airpower that found the fleet and did exactly NO damage. How unlucky is that? One B-26 that was shot down almost crashed into Akagi's bridge … but just missed.

And what about the carrier torpedo bomber squadrons that each managed to get separated from their fighter cover and their dive-bomber bretheren? How unlucky that VT-8 (Hornet), then VT-6 (Enterprise), and finally VT-3 (Yorktown) each managed to find the Japanese carriers at separate times, so that the Japanese CAP could concentrate on each in turn? And that each torpedo squadron managed, despite being a dozen or more of the best trained (and experienced!) pilots in the US forces, to get get NOT ONE hit?

The Japanese carriers had been extremely lucky, under repeated and almost continuous air attacks for more than 3 hours, without taking a single hit. It was only at that point that luck turned to the favor of the Americans, when the Enterprise and Yorktown dive bombers simultaneously arrived over the fleet and launched their attacks. Not that this was anything less than a critical stroke of luck, but it was no more luck than the Japanese had experienced up to that moment.

At least that is my reading.

-Mark
(aka: Mk 1)