"Never tell me the odds" Topic

Kind of a slow day at work, so I thought I would check out the odds on how W&C charge ranges work vs WFB
If you're not familiar, in W&C cav roll 3 dice but discards the lowest; infantry does the same but discards the highest. In WFB, you just roll two dice. I am not a good enough math guy to do it the easy way, so I had to do my experimenting the long way by hand.
This was based on charges distance needed, rather than rolling any particular number. For example: if you need to roll a "4" to reach enemy, you will be successful on a four or higher (so a 12 is as good as a 4); whereas if you need a 10, only a 10-11-12 will do, etc.
Anyway, here is what I found (assuming I didn't make math errors – which I do all the time):
3D6 + discard the lowest produces identical odd with just using 2D6
3D6 + discard the highest produces very different odds
The far left column is the number needed – the others are the chances of rolling that

Roll
Needed cavalry Infantry
3D6 2D6 3D6 2D6
+2 100% 100% 100% 100%
+3 0.97% 0.97% 0.95% 0.97%
+4 0.92% 0.92% 0.84% 0.92%
+5 0.83% 0.83% 0.69% 0.83%
+6 0.72% 0.72% 0.51% 0.72%
+7 0.58% 0.58% 0.35% 0.58%
+8 0.42% 0.42% 0.19% 0.42%
+9 0.28% 0.28% 0.11% 0.28%
+10 0.17% 0.17% 0.05% 0.17%
+11 0.06% 0.08% 0.02% 0.08%
+12 0.03% 0.03% 0.00% 0.03%

I quit playing 40K because all the players would quote their dice odds…..it made me crazy.

I am really not that much in to playing the odds – and certainly won't memorize this – just started out as curiosity

Uhm, I don't think that 3d6 drop lowest gets you the same odds as 2d6. There's something wrong with your math on that one.

Rob

"Odds" are not the same as probability of success.

I trust my Destiny. I do not trust dice.

When I GM'ed at Havoc decades ago, kids, especially, would ask me, "What do I need to roll?" "The dice,…Now!" Not original, but apt.

Dice probability nuts will like this:

link

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