"This particular matter has been discussed several times before by both professional historians and amateurs, but there's always room for another try. What If Sweden had won the battle of Poltava on June 28th, 1709? Did the Swedes stand any chance of winning, and how were they planning to continue the war, had they won the battle?
One fact that we know is that due to the acute shortage of supplies, the Swedish high command had forsaken the idea of resuming the advance towards Moscow already before the battle. The only logical alternative was to withdraw the army from Ukraine back to Poland, and this was realized by field-marshal Carl Gustaf Rehnsköld and the King Carl XII himself, that much is clear. But, even still, to ensure the safe exit, the Tsar and his army had to be taken out first, the Swedes had to fight to get away. The plans for the battle are well-known. The Swedish infantry was to break through the Russian fortifications between the Forests of Iakovtsy and Budishchi, after which the cavalry was to proceed by cutting the Russian northward retreat route on the bank of Vorskla. The infantry would attack directly against the main Russian force, with the cavalry supporting the attack on the northern flank; thus, caught between the hammer and the anvil, with their backs against the river, the Russians would be totally destroyed and the Swedes would have a free journey back home.
The chances of Swedish victory weren't good. The Swedes were seriously exhausted by the harsh winter and the campaigning of the previous year, whereas the Russians were rested and ready, and far better trained, led and armed than in Narva. Above all, the Russian artillery had an overwhelming superiority, with 102 guns on the field; the heavy pieces included twelve 8-pound and two 12-pound cannons, 20-pound and 40-pound howitzers, and one 20-pound and two 40-pound mortars, all with virtually unlimited ammunition. In contrast, Swedes had exactly four 3-pound cannons on the field, and the munitions were, quite simply, running out; the infantry and the artillery had enough firepower for one strike, after which all bets were off…"
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