"Why the Conflicts in Tikrit and Yemen Signal a New..." Topic

…Middle Eastern War.

"With the Iranian involvement against the Islamic State in the assault on Tikrit, and the Saudi invasion of Yemen to stem the tide of Iranian influence, we have entered a new Middle Eastern war.

Tikrit has become something of an augury and symbol of ISIS' prospective fate. The suggestion in much of the commentaries is that the Iranian-directed offensive in Tikrit has stalled. Indeed one can detect a certain pleasurable rubbing of hands at the very prospect of an Iranian setback.

"If this leads to the Iranians forced to concede defeat, that would be a satisfactory outcome," one U.S. defense official told the The Daily Beast. An ISIS victory, then, is "satisfactory" to the U.S.?…"
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Amicalement
Armand

The assault on Tikrit is going to take time. I think it's premature to assess winners or losers.

Iraqi forces have already been defeated at Tikrit previously. One more defeat will not end the campaign.

On the other hand, the U.S. is cooperating to the degree that Iraq has asked for (drones and airpower).

The problem is that if the U.S. seems to be cooperating with Iran, that will alienate the Sunni states (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, etc.).

It is interesting that Saudi Arabia and Egypy took action against Yemen without (reportedly) coordinating or even informing the U.S.

The reasons for not informing the US are anything but arcane. They clearly already believe the US is siding with Iran and didn't inform the US for fear of the operation being leaked to them.

Apparently, the Iranian militias are upset that US airpower is involved, since they wanted to claim the victory all to themselves, if the reports today are accurate.

Supposedly, they've pulled back from the operation, or, what I believe to be more likely, is they've pulled back at our request to avoid fratricide, but we don't want to go on the record saying that.

Clearly, there is more coordination between the US and Iranians, than we are willing to admit, in the fight against ISIS.

Yes, many in the region, including the Saudis, Egyptians, and Israelis no longer trust us. Can't really blame them.

The regions affilations, alliances, etc. it appears to me means little. And depends on the current geo-political situation. But as I said on another thread. Until the Saudis, Egyptians, Turks, Jordanians, etc. understand … you will not defeat Daesh without a combined alliances of the local Sunni forces. Rolling across a number of borders with CAS in support of ground troops. And engages in a regional long bloody offensive throught out the area. To purge Daesh and in turn the success could cause Iran to return to their own borders. Or risk an all out Sunni-Shia war … But even this scenario is full of holes if you look too deeply … Like much of what has and is going on in the entire region.

Politics makes strange bedfellows. Realpolitik even stranger ones.

At this point, I wouldn't care if Jeffrey Dahmer or Charles Manson was released to go kill DAESHbags, as long as he was only killing DAESHbags.